This chart answers the question you may have while watching your favorite team: "How many runs do they actually need to score before I can stop stressing about it?" using data compiled for the 2026 up to the All Star Break.

Teams like the Rockies or the Angels need to score nearly 6 runs before fans can be confident that their pitching staff can hold the lead. On the other side, Dodgers/Rays/Phillies/Brewers fans can sit back and relax once the 3rd or 4th run crosses the plate.

On the pitching side of the ball, you can pretty much kiss your odds of seeing a win goodbye if your team's pitchers allow the number of corresponding runs on the vertical axis. For Red Sox/Tigers/Mets fans, this means if your SP gives up 3-4 runs in the first few innings, your offense isn't good enough to come back. However, Pirates/Cubs fans can be confident that holding an opponent after a 1st inning grand slam can still lead to an offensive comeback!

Method

Essentially, each axis represents a win probability isolating only the run-preventing or run-scoring parts of the game. It is a binary logistic regression model of runs scored and runs allowed in a win or loss with the values above displaying the 50% win probability threshold.

Philadelphia Phillies star and former NL MVP Bryce Harper sits down with Los Angeles Dodgers star Mookie Betts for an exclusive, tell-all interview on Phillies' start to the season, embracing Philly fans, the Orlando Arcia staredown, pressure to win a World Series and more in the 50th episode of On Base with Mookie Betts.

I've asked this question several times about closers, so why not do one for the bullpen guys in the spots below them?

Now, I'm sure we've all taken a liking to a certain season by a player on a different team. And I'm fairly certain that at least a few of them include some mid-relief/set-up pitchers out of the pen. So, what's your favorite of these type of seasons, and why?

For me, my pick is pretty much already clinched. Rob Dibble in 1990 was honestly the poster child for great set-up guys, not only through the season, but the playoffs, as well. In 75 games pitched, he earned himself a 9-3 record with 12 saves, threw 107.2 innings of work, tallied up a 1.59 ERA (19 ER), gave up just 3 homers, struck out 150 hitters and walked just 36, tallied up an insanely low 0.94 WHIP, earned himself co-NLCS MVP honors with his closer Randy Myers, and played an integral role in the Reds taking home their 5th title.

[Game Thread] | Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies

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