It seems too obvious that NFLX is a heavy short and I want to know if there is anything I am missing. There is too many reasons to thoroughly list them all in detail, but some of these involve:
A big one being that NFLX is still viewed as a growth story and priced at a growth multiple, however the reality is that they've actually become more of a utility like Verizon, Comcast, T, etc (I.e. cable, cell phone service, Internet, etc.)
There is only so many ways that they will be able to generate quality, sustained growth well into the future. And they have exhausted a lot of their levers… they’ve cracked down on password sharing, limited number of screens, increased subscription prices at a rate of 7 to 10% per year, steadily increased advertisement screen time, etc.
Within their own competitive environment platforms like HBO Max and Peacock are eating their lunch from a content standpoint. Prime is catching up to Netflix on most user metrics. Also Netflix is shooting themselves in the foot by continuously putting out horrid content/ slop, becoming more woke (look what this did to Disney), etc. Their international expansion strategy involves making 75 versions of the show “Love is blind”………
They now must compete with Prime, Peacock Disney+, HBO Max, Discovery+ YouTube TV, Hulu, ESPN+, Paramount+, and Apple TV. Their advantage was that they had first mover advantage, but they’ve seemingly done everything in their power lately to squander that.
People say “they can expand into live sporting events” as an opportunity for them to grow……. however, when they’ve spent the money to do this, they’ve went and gotten events like Jake Paul versus Mike Tyson at 65 years old. Or 45-year-old Ronda Rousey.. meanwhile Peacock was streaming the Winter Olympics and the World Cup.. probably the two most viewed events (definitely the most viewed sporting events) in the entire world.
Also, from a cultural standpoint, people are shifting more towards shorter-duration content/ entertainment, and YouTube has tons of quality content. The younger generations are definitely moving that way, and Netflix’s highly evidential decline in quality of content is probably helping to speed run that cultural change…..
Also, the growth rate in amount of time people spend per day watching streaming services is decelerating (which makes sense. How high could it possibly get? It’s already a two hours a day.)
I cannot see anything that fundamentally would make this company a good investment. What am I missing???