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Current Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Jul 22, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 2%
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL OREGON....
...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered storms remain possible across the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic, as well as New England this afternoon and early evening, with damaging winds as the primary concern. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts are also possible in the central High Plains, southeast Texas and central Oregon, where isolated large hail will also be possible.
...20z Update New England... A broken band of strong to occasionally severe convection remains ongoing ahead of a progressive cold front over northern and eastern New England this afternoon. Weak buoyancy, but fairly strong deep-layer shear (35-45 kt) should support isolated hail, and damaging winds with stronger clusters or supercell structures this afternoon. A brief tornado also remains possible across northern ME where low-level shear is locally stronger. The primary change this outlook cycle was to lower overall severe probabilities and remove them behind the front where the air mass has stabilized.
...Mid Atlantic and Carolinas... Farther south, the cold front has become increasingly zonally oriented and slowed as the upper trough has lifted away to the northeast. A warm and very moist environment remains in place across southeastern VA into northern NC. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and decreasing vertical shear have limited convective organization and intensity. Some renewed intensity is possible along the convectively modified boundary/differential heating axis along the NC/VA border this afternoon and evening. However, the severe threat (predominately damaging gusts) is expected to remain isolated into this evening. Severe probabilities have been lowered and adjusted to better match the main focal area for severe storms near the VA/NC border through this evening.
Elsewhere, isolated severe gusts/hail remain possible over parts of the central High Plains and the southeast TX. Isolated hail is also possible over parts of central OR. Scattered storms are expected late this afternoon through the evening. No changes were made to theses areas, see the previous discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 07/22/2026
Notable Tornado Warnings
