Had a pretty expensive lesson this expiry.
I was holding a NIFTY call and at one point saw around +₹23k unrealized profit. It came down to +₹8k and I still didn't book it.
My thinking was basically:
"Structure still looks bullish. Buyers are defending dips. News isn't terrible. Maybe NIFTY breaks out next week and this becomes ₹40-50k."
Well...
+₹23k → +₹8k → -₹9k realized.
Looking back, I don't think entering the trade was my biggest mistake.
I became emotionally attached to my analysis.
Every time NIFTY bounced from support, I saw it as confirmation that I was right. When sellers appeared, I kept finding reasons why buyers could still win.
And technically, I wasn't completely wrong — buyers were defending levels.
But I confused:
with
Expiry made that mistake much worse. I was thinking only about direction while my OTM call needed direction + magnitude + timing. Being eventually right about NIFTY going up wouldn't matter if theta killed the option first.
Another thing I've noticed recently:
Sometimes everything looks bullish — news, global cues, sentiment — and NIFTY dumps.
Other times the news is horrible and NIFTY refuses to fall.
I'm starting to think the reaction to news matters more than whether the news itself sounds positive or negative.
My journal from this trade basically says:
No SL.
No trailing profit.
No fixed target.
Too much hope.
I'm taking a break from live trading for a while and just observing/journaling.
For experienced traders here:
How do you know when you're maintaining genuine conviction versus simply becoming emotionally attached to your thesis?
And when news, option positioning and price action disagree, which one do you trust most?
Feel free to tear apart my thinking. That's why I'm posting.