Alphabet $GOOGL reported negative free cash flow in Q2 for the first time as rising AI capex pressures margins.

Evercore ISI: We have also increased our 2027 FCF loss from $20B to $50B, due to the raised capex guidance.

UBS: We have been fielding more questions on Google about FCF growth returning to historic levels, and after today's update (where revenue is largely unchanged but costs work higher) we have no clearer answers.

After listening to $NOW earnings call, my conviction in most of my software exposure has been shaken. I’m open to people debating and maybe changing my mind, so if you disagree please comment below. Again try to play devil’s advocate with your own arguments, these are just my initial thoughts, I’m not looking for snarky arrogant comments, just a genuine discussion.

I do believe that there’s a genuine need for governance, observability and AI threat detection layers as agentic AI takes over. As $NOW CEO pointed out, spending forecasts on AI software is going to grow 53% this year, which is 17% faster than AI hardware. On paper this feels like an amazing opportunity for investing in those software layers that make it easier for enterprises to adopt and control AI agents.

The problem that I think got reiterated in $NOW’s earnings call is that I don’t see how their product sets can be differentiated over the next 5-10 years. It’s really hard cause I believe in what they have to offer, but I have a difficult time understanding how individual companies in this space don’t end up just competing with better products, which would probably lead to some level of commoditization of those services.

And the problem is I do see competition getting incrementally better and then the question becomes will there be enough TAM available to the companies operating in this space? Will the incumbents steal enough market share away with competitive pricing that it becomes impossible for companies like $NOW to sustain their current market cap?

I don’t think this concern was addressed in the call today. In fact, with the commentary I believe it was reiterated. I’m still doing more research and thinking on this, but if this is true then we have to ask ourselves what forward multiples do these companies deserve? Do we bid them up for next 3-5 years worth of possible high margins only for them to lose it after that?

I don’t know the answer. I’d love to listen to your opinions on this. Again comment below.

Reddit is considering cutting off $GOOGL's access to its content for AI use as their $60 million-a-year licensing deal nears expiration, the WSJ reports.

USA Today, Reuters, Politico and other publishers are also reevaluating Google’s crawler as AI summaries reduce referral traffic.

USA Today’s organic Google traffic reportedly fell nearly 50% over the past year, while Politico’s declined 23%.

The central issue is that publishers generally cannot block Google’s AI summaries without also losing visibility in traditional search.

No major cutoff has been announced, but more publishers are questioning whether the traffic Google sends back is worth the content it receives.

Just dropped: AMD and Anthropic (the company behind Claude) signed a deal for up to 2 gigawatts of AMD's new MI450 GPUs, deploying starting H1 2027. AMD is also putting up to $5B into Anthropic, tied to deployment milestones.

Why this matters:

• Anthropic already uses AMD chips (MI355X), this is an EXPANSION, not a first date
• AMD now has gigawatt-scale deals with OpenAI, Meta, AND Anthropic
• Stock is moving on the news
• This is real infrastructure, not vaporware, full rack-scale systems (Helios) with CPUs, networking, and software included

AMD is proving it can go head-to-head with Nvidia for the biggest AI labs on the planet. Worth watching how this develops into 2027.

Not financial advice, do your own research.

Been watching the $INTC options flow heading into earnings and the put/call ratio is sitting at 0.54, roughly 657K contracts total. Calls have the edge, not screaming bullish but it's a consistent lean.

What's interesting is the volume bursts cluster right around earnings markers on the chart. That's not passive positioning, someone's making a directional bet.

The bull case everyone keeps citing is the foundry pivot, AI PC narrative, domestic manufacturing tailwind. And yeah the stock has shown some life on those catalysts. But the valuation debate is still loud, tbh. Intel's not cheap if the execution story slips again.

Pulled the flow breakdown from moomoo community and the trend in that P/C ratio is what matters more than the snapshot. If it drifts further below 0.54 before the print, that's the actual signal.

Big Tech earnings week makes this harder to read in isolation. Anyone else tracking INTC flow into the call or fading the options sentiment here?

Idea stolen from u/Zipski577

I added a signal column to get a quick read on the volume data. Plan to use this as a tool to help determine when it's time to exit, add to or put on a new position. It would be super high speed if I could link the tickers to any news headlines or macro calendar events. For now I'll have to make sure I reference macro economic calendar and company specific news feeds separately.

Anyone have any other ways they track volume or have any suggestions to tweak or use this to make more informed decisions?

Netflix has managed to layer on makeup over their revenue growth for the last few years.

Their password sharing crackdown in 2023 resulted in 41% cumulative net adds over the following 3 years. Paid subscription growth is already decelerating again.

The most recent revenue growth number was mostly a result of a price hike.

Will ad tiers and other verticals be enough to sustain revenue growth going forward?

Been watching semis get absolutely wrecked since late June. SOXX off 20% from peak, QQQ dropped around 8% over the same stretch. Then Monday happens and SOXX rips 5.5% in a single session.

My read: this is short covering, not conviction buying. US short positions are sitting at historical highs, and you get a squeeze like that when crowded shorts unwind fast. Still roughly 16% below June highs, so the recovery story isn't anywhere close to written.

That said, Taiwan export orders came in at +59.4% YoY against a +49.5% consensus. That's not noise. AI capex demand is still real, and 61% of fund managers in recent surveys don't expect any reduction this year.

I checked the chart flow on moomoo and the NVDA/AMD/MU complex looks like it wants to base here, but earnings this week will tell us if Monday's move had any legs or just trapped more longs.

Personally sitting on partial positions. Not adding until I see guidance numbers. Anyone else holding through earnings or trimming into this bounce?

Saw a lot of "Tesla misses, stock tanks" posts this morning without the actual numbers, so here's what's in the report:

• Revenue: $28.24B, beat the $26.32B estimate, up 26% YoY
• Adjusted EPS: $0.33, missed the $0.50 estimate. This is the number driving the sell-off
• Adjusted EBITDA: $3.2B vs $4B expected
• Free cash flow: burned $1.09B, but that's way better than the -$3.64B analysts modeled
• Capex confirmed at "$25B+" for the year; Optimus robots, AI data centers, Cybercab production ramp

Deliveries were already known to be strong (480K, beat estimates by a wide margin) and energy storage deployments jumped 50%+ from Q1.

So it's not one-sided. Sales are growing fast, cash burn is better than feared, but profitability got squeezed likely tied to price cuts to move volume plus the massive capex commitment. Worth reading the transcript before deciding what this means for the stock. Not advice, just the numbers.

Big pump today from the cohort of non-Mag7 tech stocks (memory, hardware, CPUs, quantum, etc).

These stocks have all pumped over the last 1y but dumped through the last month.

Today, they all pumped again for the first time in weeks. However, most of them outside of SNDK did so on extremely low relative volume.

Do you think this indicates a dead cat bounce, or the “bottom” for these stocks and the regular programming of going parabolic is set to resume?

DELL and HPE’s price movement today look particularly “squeezy” (guess their after hours moves are linked to SMCI +20% on earnings after hours). Cramer just tweeted about DELL likely to have outstanding earnings so took a massive short position on DLLL

so for a while i had this feeling that all the government spending and inflation stuff was gonna keep long term rates high. like it just felt kinda different from usual, not just some temporary blip

was getting new tires around then too and the guy at the shop was joking about how everything’s still expensive, stuck with me for some reason

figured if things stayed messy, those long bonds would keep feeling heavy

put a little money on it. not a lot, just enough that it stings when it goes wrong. told myself if it dropped too much too fast i’d just get out, didn’t wanna be the guy holding on forever

i lost money on this ngl

last month it dipped. not even that much tbh, but enough to hit that “get out” point i set for myself, some inflation news came out that looked softer for like a sec

sold right there like an idiot. lost a chunk, not pizza money but enough to feel dumb standing at the gas station after

what’s weird is

i expected either it keeps dropping or it holds steady if i’m right. instead it dipped just enough to shake me out and then went right back up like nothing happened, big picture didn’t even change

huh

it’s like waiting for the car to warm up in winter. sometimes it feels ready and you pull out early and the engine still stutters on you

idk if the thing was ever actually gonna hold the whole time or if i just got unlucky with the timing. kinda both? not sure

anyone else get shaken out right before the thing actually went their way, or am i just bad at sitting still lol

Boeing has asked the U.S. government to press the European Union for transparency over a package of €3 billion ($3.43 billion) of loans to Airbus. Boeing cites concerns the loan might conflict with the 2021 subsidy truce.

Boeing asked the USTR to request a "full accounting of the terms of this loan" from the EU and to explain why it was compatible with the 2021 truce agreement, which called for an "open and transparent process".

The EIB said it finances thousands of companies every year and denied offering Airbus any unusual support.

Bloomberg reports that Oklo and X-Energy are joining a Trump administration initiative aimed at accelerating advanced nuclear reactor deployment to support the rapidly growing electricity demands of AI data centers.

The $200 million initiative also includes Microsoft and Nvidia, and is designed to speed the development of new power generation needed for AI infrastructure. An official announcement could come as soon as Wednesday during a U.S. Department of Energy AI energy summit.

As part of the program, several DOE national laboratories and institutions- including the University of Texas at Austin- are expected to share $60 million over three years to support research and development efforts.

The initiative reflects growing concern that the rapid buildout of AI data centers is straining the U.S. electric grid and contributing to higher electricity prices. Major technology companies, including Nvidia and OpenAI, have identified energy availability as one of the biggest constraints on scaling AI in the United States and maintaining competitiveness with China.

For Oklo, the news reinforces the company’s positioning as one of the advanced reactor developers expected to play a role in powering next-generation AI infrastructure. The administration’s continued focus on streamlining nuclear deployment and supporting domestic energy production could provide additional tailwinds for companies working to bring advanced reactors online.

Revenue is on pace for roughly $51 billion in 2026. Operating margins remain among the highest in entertainment.

What Netflix could look like by 2040?

I’ve noticed several trends that seem plausible to me. Obviously, Netflix needs to focus on its business today, but these are just hypothetical scenarios based on the trends I’ve observed, indicating where I see the company heading.

A list of Netflix’s current projects.

Being done 🟢

Not being done 🔴

Cloud gaming 🟢
Console-quality titles 🟢
Mobile games 🟢
Story-driven games connected to Netflix franchises of your favorite show or movie! 🟢
Netflix House experiences. 🟢
Permanent Theme Park Partnerships 🔴
Netflix Horror Nights Stranger Things haunted house stuff etc. 🟢
Escape rooms 🔴
Live sports 🟢
Live concert streaming 🔴
Podcasts 🟢
Music 🔴
Creator content 🔴
AI-powered studio 🟢

Historical growth (2016–2025) NFLX
2016-89M subscribers
2017-111M subscribers
2018-139M subscribers
2019-167M subscribers
2020-204M subscribers
2021-222M subscribers
2022-231M subscribers
2023-260M subscribers
2024-302M subscribers
2025-325M subscribers
Average addition of roughly 24 million subscribers per year
If Netflix continues their incredible growth like they have been in the past Hypothetical Subscribers growth could look like this.

2030
~430M

2035
~540M

2040
~650M

By 2040, a larger Bull case might be close to 800 million paid memberships If we face more tailwinds with AI or another pandemic like COVID-19, we already have a significant number of households staying home more than ever, which is undoubtedly beneficial. I believe that SpaceX's potential and the global expansion of the internet will help everyone have access to entertainment, even in rural areas. Only time will tell what the future holds for Streaming and media companies i still believe Netflix has a bright future.

$28.24B in revenue, up 26% YoY. Beat estimates. Automotive sales beat too. And somehow the stock drops after hours.

The problem is everything below the top line. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.33 vs. $0.51 expected. Operating income down 57% YoY, missing by a mile. Free cash flow went negative. Gross margin at 16.8% when the street was pricing in 19.4%.

Capex doubled YoY to $5.79B. That tells you where the money is going, Cybercab, Optimus, FSD buildout. Management is essentially saying "trust the vision, ignore the P&L." FSD subscriptions hit 1.48M, up 56% YoY, which is the one number that actually holds the bull case together.

Been watching the chart on moomoo today and the reaction feels overdone, but margin compression at this scale is genuinely hard to hand-wave away. The bear case is simple: they're burning cash to build products that may not pay off for years. The bull case is equally simple: if even half the Cybercab/Optimus thesis plays out, current price looks cheap.

I trimmed some exposure before earnings, kinda regretting the size of the trim now. Anyone still holding full position through this, or is the margin story enough to shake you out?

A while back people were posting insider buys like they were automatic wins, so I went back and checked how a few of the bigger open-market buys actually did. It's a mixed bag, which is kind of the point.

The winner: Hims and Hers ($HIMS). A director, David Wells, bought 48,400 shares at about $24.24 on May 26, roughly $1.17M in the open market. It's around $33 now, so he's up about 35% in under two months and it has held, not a spike that gave it all back. HIMS is a volatile name so some of that is just HIMS being HIMS, but the buy nailed the entry.

Working so far: Commercial Metals ($CMC). The CEO bought about $504k at $61.30 on July 10. Already $66, up around 8% in a week with the steel tariff tailwind behind it.

Jury still out: On Holding ($ONON). Three execs, both co-CEOs included, each put in around $2.2M at about $37 in mid-May. Still sitting right around $37, so that cluster hasn't paid yet even though it was a much bigger show of conviction than the HIMS buy.

So no, insider buying isn't a cheat code. The On cluster was the strongest signal on paper and it's flat. But when a buy lines up with a real setup, like HIMS after its washout, it can front-run a good move. I mostly just track these to see which ones are worth a second look.

Anyone else follow insider buys, or do you find them too noisy to bother with?

With the recent pullback in the market including many aerospace, defense and telecom names, I wanted to compare some of the companies using a simple valuation metric of TTM Price-to-Sales (P/S) and I also have included their TTM, confirmed backlog, gross margin, Net P/L, Total Debt and %age down from their ATH.

I am just putting it out here for anyone who finds it useful.

Prices as on closing of 20/07/2026

11 Bullish signals, 0 bearish on the daily, KDJ and RSI both screaming oversold. And yet the stock keeps drifting lower. Been watching this tape for a while and honestly the setup feels crowded to the downside but crowded doesn't mean it snaps back.

The problem is RKLB doesn't trade on its own fundamentals right now. It's basically a proxy for SpaceX sentiment and the commercial space sector as a whole. Until that narrative shifts, oversold readings might just mean "less bad," not "reversal."

Was eyeing the 64ish area as a potential stabilization zone. Pulled the chart on moomoo and the distance from the 151 highs is just brutal. Any recovery has so much overhead to chew through.

The Neutron program is the wildcard. Positive news there could be the catalyst that breaks the pattern, but tape isn't rewarding anything right now.

Anyone still holding from higher levels or did most of you cut it? Genuinely curious if support holds here or if this just grinds lower.