Ok so I'm hoping na di ako mabash masyado, and hopefully we can discuss this. Medyo bothered lang ako na parang yung hate automatic and we're missing something big because of it.
So for the longest time, konti lang naman inaasahan ng Pinas as economic growth drivers. Traditionally, these are BPO, OFW Remittances, Tourism, a small semicon industry, domestic spending, more or less yan ang inaasahan natin magdala ng pera. But lumiliit na yung contribution nito, ok pa naman at this point, but over time di na sila uubra, and I really don't see na these will carry our economy forward, BPO will reduce it's workforce because of AI, OFW remittances are dependent on immgiration laws and overseas demand, pag wala eh di wala. Tourism is volatile as well, and pag mataas ang inflation di gumagastos ang mga tao.
Bottom line is wala tayong isa pang growth driver that can support our country moving forward. Wala tayong totoong industry to speak of, an industry na may high value exports, local suppliers, upgraded infra, technology and talent na galing dito at magse-stay sa loob ng pinas (di yung pinapadala natin sa ibang bansa).
Pasok Pax Silica.
So ang Pax Silica, sa pinakamaiksing way na kaya ko, is a US initiated high technology supply chain built to support AI infrastructure. Supply Chain na walang involvement ang China, alam naman natin kung bakit gusto ng US na hindi involved ang China.
Important, Pax Silica is more than just datacenters, it's all components necessary for AI infrastructure, so ang kasama na gagawin at isu-supply ng Pax Silica is
- high end chip production
- semiconductor equipment
- mineral processing
- electronics manufacturing
- research and development
- and of course data centers.
ito yung mga cocontribute ng lahat members ng Pax Silica, so essentially it's more of a high technology production network na bawat country invovled will give something to the supply chain. So yung economic zone sa Clark will be part of multiple similar areas in the other member countries, kasi nga network siya.
So what does this all mean for us pinoys?
- una, start na to ng development ladder kumbaga para sa high end electronics manufacturing, syempre di naman agad agad magsa start na parang Taiwan na tayo agad, but we will eventually get there once everything is in place. This will give us opportunities to grow the stagnant local semicon industry kasi pagaling tayo ng pagaling padami ng padami yung mag iinvest dito
- second, kasama sa proposal is upskilling and upgrading nung current available na technical workforce na puede na isama sa first wave ng Pax Silica. From what I've read Stanford ang mag tetrain sa kanila to get them up to speed, this includes technicians all the way up to Engineers. What this gives us is higher capability, kasi yung matututunan nila for Pax Silica can be skills that can also apply to other high tech industries beyond just AI, e.g. robotics, defense, aerospace, medical equipment, energy equipment, etc etc. So puede na din tayo mag supply to those industries, so what starts as an economic zone for AI infrastructure turns into capability to develop and manufacture for other adjacent industries, natural na mag eexpand yung manufacturing industry natin because of this new capability. Sama mo na din dito yung upgrading ng current infrastructure (energy, water treatment, logistics - roads, railways, etc) magagamit din yan for the other industries na puede na natin galawan.
- pangatlo, being a member of Pax Silica may give us access to markets that were otherwise unavailable to us because we're members. Dahil political alliance din siya ibig sabihin puede tayo vet ng US or another member country to supply classified or sensitive projects. Example, si germany may classified na equipment na dinedevelop kailangan nila ng supplier so puedeng sabihin ng US "Brad, may source kami niyan, dito ka na kumuha sa Pinas, tropa yan member yan ng Pax Silica so safe yung classified project mo dito" Bottom line partnered yung benefit ng manufacturing capability and access to restricted markets. So mabubuo yung cycle. So di lang siya manufacturing jobs, pero access na din to trusted markets.
BUT
Alam na naman natin yung risks nito, ito na yung mga paulit ulit na nakikita natin sa social media: ecological damage, grid disruptions kasi malakas ang power na kailangan, possible water depletion, mineral extraction hanggang eventually maubos at masira yung mining site, community displacement, damage to farm lands, exploitation ng foreigners tsaka local oligarchs (sa kanila lang mapupunta lahat ng kita). Totoo lahat yan, at totoong high risk yang mga downsides na yan kasi nakikita naman natin lahat yan sa ibang bansa.
Ngayon eto na:
Kung may talent man ang Pilipino, isa na dito siguro yung alam na natin agad agad kung magiging problematic ang isang major project, or nalalaman din natin agad kung may kabulastugan na nangyayari. Alam natin agad kung papalso yung project or corrupt.
Ang problema is when blanket rejection ang nangyayari. In the case of Pax Silica, sabihin natin kunwari mareject nga eventually ang Pax Silica, yung mga problema na minention ko sa pinas, na
- wala tayong scalable industry na puedeng growth driver
- kulang yung exports
- poor or outdated infrastructure, etc etc.
lahat yun di naman mawawala if i-cancel natin ang Pax Silica. Problema pa rin natin yun which will remain unadressed for an undetermined period. Yung original strategic objective na dapat lulutasin ng Pax Silica di pa rin ma-achieve.
Recent example, Flood Control. Ang original problem na gustong lutasin ng flood control projects is well mawala yung baha. Pero sumabog yung scandal nga and nalaman natin yung perang nawala, yung mga involved, yung iba may mga kaso na etc. in short nalaman natin lahat ng kailangan natin malaman para sabihin na failure tong flood control. Pero nangyari na lahat yun, wala pa ring nakaka solve nung baha. Walang nag continue ng project, naglabas ng mas magandang plano. Yung baha problema pa rin di na natin na solve at malamang naka tengga pa din to hanggang ewan.
Best example. Bataan Nuclear. Ang original mission objective ng bataan nuclear was to provide stable, efficient, and lower cost power to the grid. Para di tayo nagkakashortage ng kuryente. Tapos ayun na nga nalaman natin na bad project siya, nakatayo pala sa fault line, ultimately delikado siya i-operate. So ang nangyari tinigil na lang natin, sinara yung planta tas naka tengga pa rin siya hanggang ngayon. PERO yung problema na dapat isosolve ng Bataan Nuclear NEVER na niresolve. hanggang ngayon.
Point is, magaling tayo mag identify ng fault or hanapan ng ways para mag fail yung big project, pero kulang tayo sa effort maghanap ng paraan para masolve pa din yung problema na dapat sasagutin nung project.
Applied to Pax Silica, tama naman maraming opportunities to fail ang Pax Silica, bukod sa environmental risks andyan din yung always na ka-akibat na corruption and exploitation ng politiko at oligarchs. Di siya perfect for sure. Pero yung problema na kaya niya i-solve napaka halaga sa bigger picture. To me, it's almost a last chance for us to finally make concrete steps towards uplifting ourselves, yun lang naman gusto ko. Pagtanda ng anak ko sana milya milya na ang layo ng Pilipinas nun sa ngayon.
So hindi naman sa aawayin ko yung mga against sa Pax Silica. Pero I would challenge them to complete the argument.
If Pax Silica is evil and imperfect, what would need to happen to make it better or close to your idea of perfection?
or even better
If you propose junking Pax Silica totally, what would you recommend we do as a country to answer the problems that we currently face and grow our economy?
Yan talaga ang gusto tanong sa mga environmentalists, ok naman na call out niyo yung dangers ng Pax Silica, pero kailangan may reco din kayo on how to improve it or provide an alternative to solve the problem it's there to solve. Kasi di naman mawawala yung problema, andyan pa din yun. Otherwise di tayo magiging productive.
because the real choice isn't between accepting total environmental destruction or totally rejecting an industrial revolution. Yung totoong tanong is how do we work hard enough to make sure Pax Silica works for us and not turn it into a foreign owned resource extractor?
Yun talaga.
I don't believe in accepting Pax Silica blindly nor do I believe in rejecting the project totally. The upside is too large to ignore, lalo na for a country who's always had the potential but never quite lives up to it. We have to solve the problem either via a better version of Pax Silica or through another alternative strategy. Boldly rejecting it is not a strategy.
yun lang, my more than .02 cents.
