I honestly don’t get it anymore… NKE has basically been going down for like a year now. Just red after red after red.

What really confuses me is the World Cup. Nike was everywhere. Big teams, huge visibility, constant exposure… I really thought that would boost sales and give the stock some momentum.

But nope, it just keeps sliding.

https://finviz.com/stock?t=NKE&ty=c&ta=0&p=d

So I’m wondering… is there something deeper going on here? Competition? margins? strategy issues?

Or is this just market overreaction?

Curious what you guys think, because right now I clearly feel like I’m missing something.

I think gold miners are about to get an influx of investment from Asian retail investors. I would imagine that Chinese gold investor/traders that are all of a sudden restricted from leveraged gold would be looking for alternative means to gain similar exposure. Gold Miners accomplish that… gold miners basically give traders leveraged gold prices. Of course, shares in a company means additional exposure to business risk but I still think there is enough there to entice investment. It might be a practical place to move given the circumstances.

revenue is up 24% yoy. Numbers probably good for semi space, not sure about google

https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026q2-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf

There's a line that has always stuck with me from the movie the Hitman's body guard and the line is ''Boring is best''. Whenever anything is made to seem like the place to invest its usually just been discovered by the hype train and propped up by the perception that the asset will increase rather than foundations of value. So id like to hear about something I wouldn't think to look into that may not seem glamourous at all. What boring unheard of maybe even embarrassing alternative investments that will probably never reach my ears can you point me in the general direction of?

I developed a standard brokerage account and Roth IRA in Ellevest between 2020-2025 (until they transitioned their assets to Betterment). It was my first time investing, and I let the roboinvestor do the work. Then once Ellevest moved to Betterment, I was running these two accounts via the Betterment roboinvestor for about a year. I am not maxing out my IRA, and contributing about $200/mo to each account (brokerage and IRA).

I met with a flat-fee fiduciary advisor who told me I could simplify my portfolio to focus on maxing out the IRA and reduce the amount I'd lose to platform fees with Betterment by managing my portfolio myself in Vanguard, shifting all my assets into the Roth, and using an allocation of 54% VTI, 36% VXUS, 10% BND. He talked me through the process and it seemed doable to me, so I went ahead and transferred my portfolio into Vanguard.

Now I'm stumped at figuring out how to transfer the assets from the brokerage account into the Roth without triggering a sale/taxable event. There isn't a UI for this (you can transfer assets between brokerage accounts freely, though). From what I'm reading, I will have to sell the holdings from the brokerage account, keep them in a settlement fund, then deposit them into the IRA. Because it's a sale, I'll incur the capital gains tax on them.

1. Is there truly no way for me to transfer these assets to the IRA without incurring a capital gains tax?
2. Once in my IRA, can I redistribute the holdings into the allocation mentioned above without additional taxable events occurring?
3. Is there any way for me to calculate how much the capital gains will be from (1) so I can set a proper amount aside for taxes? I don't see anywhere in Vanguard that tells me how long I've had the holding to be able to estimate which bracket it'll taxed be in.

Cross-posted into r/personalfinance and r/VanguardInvestments

So, from what I can gather, in both 2000 and 2008 when the US market fell, that bled over globally, they all fell when the panic hit.

It seems like in the event of big drawdowns, people pull cash from everywhere for liquidity, even if fundamentals aren't the same across the globe?

After the initial drop, then the divergence happened in the recovery across different countries as some recovered much faster than others.

Does this pattern hold for other historical corrections? Do you think it's likely to repeat?

Bloomberg reports that Oklo and X-Energy are joining a Trump administration initiative aimed at accelerating advanced nuclear reactor deployment to support the rapidly growing electricity demands of AI data centers.

The $200 million initiative also includes Microsoft and Nvidia, and is designed to speed the development of new power generation needed for AI infrastructure. An official announcement could come as soon as Wednesday during a U.S. Department of Energy AI energy summit.

As part of the program, several DOE national laboratories and institutions- including the University of Texas at Austin- are expected to share $60 million over three years to support research and development efforts.

The initiative reflects growing concern that the rapid buildout of AI data centers is straining the U.S. electric grid and contributing to higher electricity prices. Major technology companies, including Nvidia and OpenAI, have identified energy availability as one of the biggest constraints on scaling AI in the United States and maintaining competitiveness with China.

For Oklo, the news reinforces the company’s positioning as one of the advanced reactor developers expected to play a role in powering next-generation AI infrastructure. The administration’s continued focus on streamlining nuclear deployment and supporting domestic energy production could provide additional tailwinds for companies working to bring advanced reactors online.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-21/oklo-x-energy-join-trump-effort-to-speed-new-nuclear-reactors-for-ai

So I use fidelity and I have FXAIX, FTIHX and FXNAX for my Roth IRA could anyone help me or recommend some I could add or remove also should I put money into my individual account or just keep buying/adding money into what i already have invested/going to invest in.

If anyone could also, can you tell me sum videos on YouTube I could watch to understand what I’m doing and looking/looking for, I want to grow and ik it wont be quick so that’s why I asked if I should use my individual account. I’m currently getting my CDL now too so I’ll have even more money to invest, I just want to do it right and not have it fuck me also what’s you’re guys opinions on bitcoin?

There are two things I've been looking into that don't get enough attention in the AI bull case, and I think they matter a lot for anyone holding NVIDIA, Microsoft, or anything riding on AI CapEx continuing forever.

People compare AI buildout to railroads or the 90s telecom boom. I get the analogy. Those were also periods of massive overinvestment, and the narrative is that even though the bubble popped, the infrastructure ended up being useful for decades. Fibre cables from 1999 still carry traffic. Rail lines from the 1800s still move freight. The argument is basically that even if AI spend overshoots, the assets will retain value over the long run.

But I started looking into how long data centre hardware actually lasts, and it doesn't match that story at all. Chips go obsolete in a couple of years. Cooling systems and networking equipment, maybe five. Even the buildings themselves can become outdated in under a decade because hardware keeps changing shape and density requirements shift. This isn't a build-it-once-and-it-pays-off-for-30-years situation. It's a treadmill. Companies will have to keep sinking hundreds of billions back in every few years just to stay where they are.

The second thing I've been watching is what's happening with actual adoption on the ground. We keep hearing about exponential demand and how everyone is racing to integrate AI, but the survey data coming out lately tells a different story. Enterprise adoption rates have started dipping month over month. Around 80% of companies using AI say it hasn't moved their bottom line in any measurable way. And on the consumer side, sentiment is shifting too. Half of Americans now say they're more concerned than excited about AI, up from about a third a few years ago.

If you put those two things together, the picture gets uncomfortable. On one side, you have infrastructure that needs constant replenishment and doesn't hold value the way past buildouts did. On the other, you have demand signals that are softening in exactly the places where the revenue is supposed to come from. If the corporate middle doesn't see the value yet and the general public is cooling, where does the payoff come from?

I'm not saying AI is useless or that the whole thing goes to zero. But the timeline for these investments to earn a real return feels a lot tighter than the bull case assumes, and that gap between spend and payoff is where things usually break. Curious what others make of this, especially anyone with hands-on experience in data centre economics.

I noticed that the spread on Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae issue pools are tightening to almost the lowest level for about 10 years.

I know you can't plot a spread like you would on a normal yield curve because you have to allow for the prepayments, and you can't get a very distant point on the curve.

But let's say you take a yield at a given point on the Agency MBS curve, adjusted for an expected prepayment pattern, and compare it to the same point on the treasury, that spread has been narrowing a lot.

Source: https://atlantisdatasolutions.com/agency-mbs-yield-curve

So my main exposure to big Tech is the Fidelity Contrafund which is up 12% in the past year and 71% in the last 3 years. I’m not really diversified beyond that fund but still believe in the Mag 7 stocks future as well as AI and the relative safety that fund offers. Since I can remain somewhat aggressive for a few years i’m not sure i want to go a different route yet. My question is should I add some diversity like small caps and international stocks? Im struggling here as that fund has outperformed all of the other options i have to invest in over the past 5 years. Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

Government debt and deficits are rising fast worldwide and particularly in the US. US Treasury has been selling short paper instead of bonds in the expectation that Warsh will be a puppet and drop the funds rate. The AI hyperscaler complex is issuing mountains of debt to finance CapEx way, way beyond available cash.

What happens when the bond market says, "enough is enough"?

Where is the best place to hide? In particular, what's going to happen to inflation and short-term rates?

There are several high-profile examples where large tech companies invest in AI startups, and those startups then spend a significant portion of that capital back with the same investors (or related companies) through cloud infrastructure, GPUs, or long-term compute contracts (e.g., Microsoft/OpenAI, Amazon/Anthropic, Google/Anthropic, Nvidia and various AI labs).

The Kospi's 4.9% plunge - it's the sharpest signal that the AI/chip rally is getting wobbly right before the biggest US tech names report, setting up a high-stakes week.

https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/korea-focused-koru-etf-dips-on-kospi-drag-samsung-sk-hynix-extend-selloff-into-us-big-tech-earnings-week/cZZLrtnR7Mr

So I went through the filing. The call was all "parabolic demand" and everything sounds amazing. Then you actually read the numbers.

$58 billion in net income, but $13.4 billion of that was just unrealized gains from stocks they own. Intel went up so they booked a gain. That has nothing to do with selling chips. If those stocks stayed flat the quarter looks a lot more normal. Like $44 billion. Management didn't really mention this on the call.

Also three customers make up 54% of revenue. 21%, 17%, 16%. Jensen talked about having customers in 40 countries but half the business is three companies. And the filing says these are mostly purchase orders that can be cancelled anytime. These are probably the same cloud companies building their own chips. If one of them slows down even a bit that's a big hole.

The Groq thing was surprising too. They paid $13 billion cash to Groq. Another $4 billion committed. And now there's $14.4 billion in goodwill on the balance sheet. Groq is an inference startup a lot of people think could compete with them someday. If that goodwill ever gets written down it's a real hit. And nobody really talks about it.

Not saying the company is bad. The business is clearly strong. Just thought the earnings got a nice tailwind from non-operating stuff and a few risks seem under-discussed.

Just sharing in case someone finds it useful.

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Even Apple silicon too slow to run the cloud version of Siri and has to resort to Nvidia chips instead.

btw, nice growth rate there alphabet

This is entirely hypothetical, but I'm trying to understand the scope of how shorts work when things go "well" for shorts. (Note: I hate options and have no plans to ever short anything, I'm an old-school Buffet-style investor, but I am very curious about shorts.)

Let's say some very hot company XYZ has a current mkt cap of $4 trillion. It is a market darling but also has a growing cadre of shorts, some of them big-time hedge funds betting on the worst for the company down the road.

Then let's say that day comes: the bubble bursts, and the dreams of the shorts come true. Within say, 48 hours, the stock loses half its value to $2T.

What kinds of gains could the shorts see? I would assume they'd be in the billions of dollars?

I was the bagholder who previously posted about betting heavy on Oracle (ORCL) at $300.
At that post, someone asked me how I view Oracle now. At the time, I said they’d likely run into trouble next year, but still had some upside left for this year.
My thoughts back then was simple: once OpenAI goes public next year, the market will realize OpenAI’s financials can’t sustain their massive payouts to Oracle, then it kinds of short Oracle.

As it turns out, Oracle might not even make it to next year when recently red flags have popped up:

1. It is reported 30%- 50% of the data centers scheduled for completion this year have been delayed or canceled;
2. CFO Hilary Maxson gave a very cautious, cooling-down commentary (even Larry Ellison was absent from the earnings call);
3. S&P Global rated them at BBB-.

In this AI boom, Oracle has essentially pivoted from a SaaS provider into a hyperscale data center player.

Borrowing against the future:

Hyperscale data centers carry the heaviest capital burden in the entire AI supply chain.

Upstream chipmakers are selling expensive hardwares to Oracles ( one-time pay requiring massive upfront CapEx).

Meanwhile, physical infrastructure (land, power, facilities) requires massive fixed investments with a 4-to-5-year construction cycle.
But, Oracle’s revenue comes from long-term billing to model companies. A relatively small recurring revenue does nothing to alleviate short-term financial pressure.

Concentration risk:

Nearly half of their RPO tied directly to OpenAI. If OpenAI defaults, it’s game over for Oracle. OpenAI has committed to paying $60B annually, yet their actual revenue is only around $25B.

OpenAI's own financial is not stable yet.

Interest rate risk:

Oracle has leveraged heavily over $156B in debt.

While their existing debt is locked in at fixed rates, they still need to borrow tens of billions annually to fund ongoing construction.

With inflation sticky and the risk of further higher rate, any spike in borrowing costs would be a death blow.

Luckily, their legacy SaaS business brings in $10B annually, which nearly covers their interest payments and serves as a financial safety base, but it barely helps for the current stock price.

_____

Some argued that skyrocketing chip prices benefit Oracle because they purchased their inventory years ago. This argument doesn't make sense.
Oracle buys chips to deploy them, not to flip them. Older chips are just depreciating assets. Even if depreciation is slower than the price hikes, selling them off would only indicate asset contraction and marginally support their borrowing capacity. It doesn't translate into net profit or free cash flow.

That said, Oracle could still pull through if:

1. They actually deliver the promised 1GW of power capacity they mentioned recently, by the September earnings call (which is 4x faster than last year's pace).
2. They successfully extend their client base to reduce reliance on OpenAI.
3. OpenAI stays private longer to keep its cash burn secretly, or its revenue completely outperforms Anthropic, proving their ability to pay.

I trade much more than I invest, but lately I've been wondering whether equities will eventually become 24/7 markets.

Crypto has gotten a lot of people used to markets being open all the time, while traditional stocks are still limited to exchange hours even though news can break at any moment. Earnings, geopolitical events, and macro headlines don't wait for the opening bell.

I recently came across Ondo Perps, which seems to be taking a different approach by offering perpetual futures on stocks and ETFs for non-US users. It made me wonder whether this is the direction markets are heading, or whether traditional exchange hours will remain the standard because they provide structure and better price discovery.

I'm not asking whether people should trade 24/7. If anything, most investors probably shouldn't react to every headline. I'm more curious about where the market is headed over the next decade.

Do you think 24/7 equity exposure eventually becomes the norm, or does it remain something mostly limited to crypto-style products?

The Economist's July 11 issue has an absolutely side-splitting article .... because it is just soooo true. Not only does it skewer passive indexing, it absolutely NAILS the reality of the leviathans overwhelming the American indexes. I never stopped laughing from start to finish. Both passive indexers and stock pickers need to read this and get grounded in reality.

https://www.economist.com/business/2026/07/08/elon-musk-and-the-age-of-the-corporate-leviathan

I'm trying to understand the disconnect with Synopsys (SNPS) and would love to hear from people who've followed the company longer than I have.

On paper, it seems like one of the highest-quality businesses in semis:

• Essentially a duopoly in EDA alongside Cadence.
• Sticky software with huge switching costs.
• Every new chip design (AI, automotive, custom silicon, etc.) needs tools like theirs.
• Long runway as chip complexity keeps increasing.

Obviously it's not without issues. The China export restrictions are real, the ANSYS acquisition adds execution risk, and it has historically traded at premium multiples. I completely understand why people aren't willing to pay 40x+ earnings forever.

But that's kind of my question.

The stock is down materially from its highs and sentiment feels...muted. Compared to other semiconductor names, there doesn't seem to be much discussion around it.

For those who are on the sidelines:

What would you need to see before buying?

• Lower valuation?
• More clarity on China?
• ANSYS integration completed?
• Faster EPS growth?
• Something else entirely?

My current view leans bullish. It feels like one of those businesses where the moat is much stronger than the current narrative, and over a 5-10 year horizon I struggle to see demand for EDA software going backwards. On the other hand, maybe the market has already correctly priced in that quality and it's simply a great company at a fair price.

Would love to hear both the bull and bear cases from people who've dug into it more deeply. Particularly interested in what I'm missing rather than reasons to confirm my own thesis.

Disclaimer: Written with the assistance of AI.

I am a finance enthusiast and love investing and taking bets. Lately I have been observing almost every sector is impacted by climate change but they are not factored in our valuation or investment thesis. Correct me if I am wrong.

For a thermal power company, there is a mandate of RPC, for a metal industry, there is a mandate to cut the emissions subsequently, FMCG company is moving to sustainable processing and packaging, plus they face EPR.

How is Europe doing investments because Europe climate policy is way ahead compared to other nations?

Can you give me a perspective how are we modelling for climate change in our financial model and valuation?