Donald Trump single-handedly revived Canadian liberal nationalism

Abundance is really a radical framework that challenges all Dem party factions (and Republicans too!) and I don’t understand why pundits cannot get this

There’s nothing moderate about wanting to undo a century of federal, state, and local land use policy to 10x the rate of housing construction. Or break the labor cartels created by doctors, lawyers, and other white collar professions to push up costs for everyday consumers. Or remake America’s transportation system by building thousands of miles of high-speed rail. Or transform our energy grid with tons of new clean energy and infrastructure. I could go on—abundance envisions big changes!

In our broken polarization framework, ideas that represent a huge shift from the status quo get framed as “moderate” because they sometimes involve markets rather than state intervention. But exclusionary zoning and doctor cartels and veto-ridden planning don’t fit on the moderate-progressive spectrum, or even the left-right spectrum. They are just bad policies with massive negative consequences—namely higher costs for consumers and taxpayers—that earlier generations supported and entrenched interests continue baking into American life

The cool thing about abundance is it completely breaks the political polarization framework. Ultra-progressive NYC mayor Zohran Mamdani worked with moderate New York Governor Kathy Hochul to reform environmental laws that blocked sustainable housing and transit. Super-lefty California State Senator Scott Wiener passed the state’s biggest upzoning in history with votes across factional and party lines. Texas has exponential clean energy growth because their permitting is more chill

The abundance framework can help people who identify with any faction deliver better results. Whether it gets broadly adopted across issue areas remains to be seen because it’s still early days. The most politically developed abundance-y movement, YIMBYism, is barely a decade old. Everything else is nascent. But lawmakers are learning: Abundance-coded bills like The Road to Housing Act passed with overwhelming bipartisan majorities and support across factional lines. To me, passing historic federal legislation with support from across the Democratic Party suggests the abundance framework is doing just fine

I wrote a full article here about abundance’s impact and defiance of political polarization

No classified briefings, no press conferences, no acknowledgment that the conflict with Iran is back on

archive link

The Trump administration is weighing military action in the West African country of Mali to target an al-Qaeda-affiliated group known as JNIM, said current and former U.S. officials familiar with the deliberations.

If approved, it would add an eighth nation to the list of countries where President Donald Trump has ordered strikes since the start of his second term — a chapter of his presidency that he initially said would be dedicated to ending global strife and redirecting U.S. resources to Americans.

There is disagreement, however, among senior U.S. officials over whether to proceed with attacking the militant group. A vocal advocate for using force is the National Security Council’s senior director for counterterrorism, Sebastian Gorka, said the current and former officials, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss military planning.

The militant group, whose full name is Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, has established a stronghold in Mali and increasingly launched attacks in coastal West African nations, establishing itself as the most well-armed militant group in the region and among the most powerful in the world.

The Pentagon declined to comment.

When the White House was asked for comment, an administration official would not disclose whether the president intended to move forward with military strikes but said the United States has been urging governments in North and West Africa “to purchase U.S. equipment and services to support their war efforts against the terrorists.”

The official said that terrorism in the Sahel, the vast semiarid region south of the Sahara, is a “multinational problem.”

“We urge regional partners and NATO allies to support the Alliance of Sahel States in their war against JNIM and ISIS,” the official added, referring also to the Islamic State, which rose to prominence in the Middle East before establishing affiliates throughout Africa.

The Alliance of Sahel States consists of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger — all West African nations where military leaders have in recent years ousted democratically elected governments in coups, largely cut ties with the West and turned to Russia for security help.

But the administration official pinned the blame not on those governments but on their Russian partners, saying that Moscow “has proven to be an ineffective security partner for Mali.”

“We hope that other African nations take note of Russia’s terrible performance in combating terrorism,” the official said.

The Trump administration’s contemplation of military options in the country has not been previously reported.

Mali, a landlocked nation of nearly 25 million, has in recent years been plagued by violence by Islamist militant groups — and by Mali’s own junta government and the Russian mercenaries whom it hired to get the situation under control.

The militant groups, particularly JNIM, have grown increasingly powerful, turning Mali and its neighbors in the Sahel into the world’s center for terrorism.

Last year, militants with the al-Qaeda affiliate mounted a fuel blockade that paralyzed much of the country. This spring, they launched coordinated, nationwide attacks that included militants roaming the streets of Bamako, the capital; seizing a strategic city in the north from Mali’s military and the Russians; and killing the country’s defense minister in a suicide attack.

Meanwhile, IS Sahel — an Islamic State affiliate and a JNIM rival — has consolidated power near Mali’s border with Niger, where last year its militants kidnapped American missionary Kevin Rideout, who is believed to be held now in Mali.

To combat the violence, Mali’s junta government hired Russian mercenaries, first with the Wagner Group and now with Africa Corps, which is more closely linked with Russia’s defense ministry. The Russians have been accused of a string of atrocities, according to rights groups and The Washington Post’s previous reporting.

Héni Nsaibia, West Africa senior analyst for the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project, said that Mali’s military and its Russian backers were responsible for killing hundreds more civilians than JNIM and IS Sahel combined. Last year, the Malian military and its Russian partners were responsible for 925 civilian deaths, according to ACLED, compared with 232 by Islamist militants.

“It is extremely problematic that a government like the U.S. or any Western partner would provide support to these regimes whose legitimacy remains contested, and which are incredibly fragile and repressive,” he said, referring to Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.

Still, last year, as part of a push by the Trump administration to reengage with Mali, the United States ramped up intelligence sharing with Mali’s government, current and former American officials said at the time. The intelligence was used in strikes by Mali’s military, which had been largely shunned by the Biden administration for its refusal to set a timeline for a return to democratic elections and its work with the Russians.

But such cooperation has so far remained limited, nowhere near the scale of the U.S.-Nigeria security partnership that ramped up last year and has included U.S. airstrikes and a ground mission that killed one of the Islamic State’s top leaders in Africa.

Any direct U.S. military involvement in Mali runs the risk of hostilities with Russian forces in the region. It also could require deconfliction efforts between Washington and Moscow akin to ones that existed in Syria during that country’s civil war.

When asked if Secretary of State Marco Rubio supports military action in Mali, the State Department sidestepped the question, saying the U.S. “unequivocally condemns the terrorist activity in Mali.”

The department said the Trump administration is “committed to promoting regional ownership and cooperation against terrorist threats, and monitoring indicators and warnings of threats to our homeland.”

U.S. military action against JNIM would add Mali to the list of countries where Trump has ordered strikes: Yemen, Somalia, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela. The administration also has waged a controversial military campaign against alleged drug runners in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific that has resulted in scores of deaths.

Wassim Nasr, a Sahel specialist and senior research fellow at the Soufan Center, said that the U.S. could be most useful by getting involved instead in “conflict resolution,” forcing Mali’s junta government to talk with JNIM, which has focused not on global aims but on applying Islamic laws in local governance, and other political opponents whom the junta has largely silenced.

“Opting for the military solution one more time won’t get things resolved,” Nasr said. “The French tried that for 10 years. The Russians have been trying for five years. The situation has only gotten worse and worse.”

France launched its military intervention in the Sahel in 2013 at the request of Mali’s then-government. French forces quashed the insurgency in Mali and restored a measure of order. That initial mission was followed by a second, Operation Barkhane, that eliminated prominent militant leaders but ultimately failed to stop the spread of various armed groups.

Anger at France — fueled by its neocolonial missteps and by Russian disinformation — grew over the years, helping propel coups in Mali in 2020 and 2021 and in neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger. President Emmanuel Macron later withdrew French forces.

Nasr added that if U.S. strikes weaken JNIM, they conversely could help IS Sahel, whose growth has been limited by the rival al-Qaeda-affiliated group.

Peter Pham, a former Trump administration official, was less pessimistic about the use of military force but said a precondition should be reestablishing trust with the governments of Mali and Niger ahead of security cooperation efforts.

“While we may have very limited direct economic or other interests in these countries, we do not want jihadists like ISIS and al-Qaeda gaining a foothold there,” Pham said.

Gorka has long made aggressive counterterrorism policies a cornerstone of his ideology. But his impact on policy since the start of Trump’s second term has been modest, said a U.S. official — a source of relief for his critics, who object to his hard-line approach, and a disappointment to his supporters.

In the spring, Gorka engaged in conversations about becoming Trump’s next director of the National Counterterrorism Center following the resignation of Joe Kent, who left the administration embittered by the president’s decision to start the war in Iran. But those discussions have not materialized into a nomination for Gorka.

Current and former U.S. officials said that Gorka had been deeply involved with talks about how to bring home Rideout, the captured missionary. One key aim of the administration last year was to get “overflight” rights in Mali, a former official said, so that U.S. officials could fly airplanes and other surveillance technology over Malian skies to better track his movements.

That desire for overflight rights was behind the administration’s decision to lift sanctions on key junta members, including Defense Minister Sadio Camara, who was a key proponent of Russian intervention in Mali and was killed in the JNIM attack on April 25.

Gorka, current and former officials say, also was invested in an effort to kill Abu Ubaydah Yusuf al-Anabi, a leader in an Algeria-based al-Qaeda affiliate that has seen its influence wane in recent years. Although American officials were hopeful last summer that U.S. intelligence had been used in a Malian strike to take out al-Anabi, as The Post previously reported, his death was never confirmed.

Corinne Dufka, an independent expert on the Sahel, said that there is a risk that any U.S. strikes could lead JNIM to target the U.S. or Americans in the region — which it has not done so far — or to push the group closer to the main al-Qaeda organization, from which it has grown more autonomous in recent years.

“If the U.S. helps Malian authorities kill JNIM authorities, it could backfire,” she said. “And they could be squandering an opportunity to de-radicalize and demobilize one of the world’s most sophisticated jihadist organizations.”

Submission statement: The RN is preparing its party platform for next year's presidential election. Muslims are obviously gonna be a big target, but some members of the party (and not small ones) think this may be going too far for the median voter. Bardella had long avoided to handle the issue himself, but now that Marine is back in the race for the top job, she wants her favored policies to be top priority.

Themes of the sub: freedom of religion, far-right

IMO I hope that the party's hardline base stays home if they remove it, or vice-versa that their soft-right wing stays home if they keep it (or that they switch to another party). It'd make getting sane candidates on 2nd round slightly easier. But the median RN voter is too much into conspiracies and brainslop to really move away from the party.

Russia's Finance Ministry has suspended federal government bond auctions indefinitely as borrowing costs climb and investor demand weakens, complicating efforts to finance a widening wartime budget deficit.

The ministry said on Monday it was halting its regular weekly auctions of government bonds, known as OFZs, "to facilitate the stabilization of market conditions." It did not say when sales would resume, saying only that it would announce their restart at a later date.

OFZs are ruble-denominated government bonds that underpin Russia's financial system. They are the government's primary source of domestic borrowing to cover budget deficits, while banks hold them to manage daily cash needs and foreign investors buy them for returns.

The Finance Ministry has relied heavily on domestic borrowing to help finance a budget deficit that reached 5.7 trillion rubles ($72.39 billion) at the end of June, while military spending continues to outpace initial government plans.

Prices of OFZs have fallen sharply since mid-June. The RGBI government bond index has dropped from around 119 points to about 110, its lowest level this year, while yields on bonds with maturities longer than 10 years have climbed above 16.5%.

The ministry's last four scheduled auctions were either canceled or attracted little demand. It canceled the June 24 auction, sold only 10.3 billion rubles ($130.81 million) of a planned 110 billion rubles ($1.40 billion) on July 1, canceled another auction on July 8 and, on July 15, scrapped the sale after receiving no bids at what it considered acceptable prices.

The Finance Ministry had planned to raise 1.5 trillion rubles ($19.05 billion) on the domestic debt market during the third quarter. So far, however, it has borrowed just 8.8 billion rubles ($111.76 million) in net proceeds during the quarter, according to Vector Capital analysts.

Analysts said the main factors weighing on Russian government bonds were rising inflation and expectations that the Central Bank may pause its cycle of interest rate cuts.

Nikolai Leonenkov, director of corporate finance at investment company Rikom-Trust, said inflation and expectations for monetary policy had been the main drivers behind the bond market's decline.

Investors are also concerned that a larger federal budget deficit could require increased government borrowing and additional bond issuance, said Pavel Payevsky, head of credit analysis and macroeconomics at asset manager RSHB Asset Management.

According to Bloomberg, the Finance Ministry plans to raise an additional 2-3 trillion rubles ($25.40 billion-$38.10 billion) in debt this year to help cover military spending that is expected to exceed budget plans by 4-5 trillion rubles ($50.80 billion-$63.50 billion). The rest would come from cuts to civilian spending, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

Alexander Kolyandr, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), said the ministry was unwilling to borrow at current market rates.

"Yields have jumped. In other words, the interest rate at which banks are willing to lend to the government has risen to around 16% for 10-year debt. That's a lot," Kolyandr said. "It's a very high yield, a very high interest rate. The Finance Ministry is clearly reluctant to borrow at that rate."

A More Accurate Portrait of Homeownership

A better metric shows that homeownership is even less common among younger Canadians than official statistics suggest.

The traditional homeownership rate metric is misleading. Fortunately, the Minnesota Fed just came up with a better measure.

Here at the Missing Middle, we frequently write about and talk about homeownership rates and post a lot of graphs like the one below, from our piece The Homeownership Journey Is Broken. Policymakers Need to Repair It:

Figure 1: Homeownership Rate by Age Cohort and Year, Canada

The problem with the metric becomes apparent when we chart the homeownership rate for every age group, including 15-19 years, as shown in Figure 2:

Figure 2: Homeownership Rate by Age, Canada, 2021, Traditional Definition

A homeownership rate of 16% for individuals between the ages of 15-19 would strike most people as absurd, but the data is accurate. The problem is with how statistical agencies define homeownership. It is simply the proportion of families that own the house they live in. But very few 15-19-year-olds are the head of a family in the first place, so they are neither owners nor renters. They are absent from the calculation entirely.

This absence from the calculation matters, as the traditional homeownership rate measure does not capture phenomena such as people in their 20s and 30s living with their parents longer. This problem has been recognized for some time, so the Federal Reserve Bank of Minnesota decided to address it. In their piece New homeownership measure puts people first they created a new metric, the “homeowners-to-population ratio”, which measures the percentage of the population that owns a home, either as an individual or as a couple.

In an instructive infographic, the piece shows how factors such as older family members or adult children living with homeowners, or roommates living with the owner of a home, are captured under their new metric, as shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Traditional vs. Minnesota Fed Measures of Homeownership Rates

Fortunately, Census 2021 contains enough data to calculate homeownership rates using the new Minnesota Fed definition. Figure 4 shows that, under the Minnesota Fed definition, homeownership rates fall dramatically for persons under the age of 40, and those over the age of 85. This better captures the phenomenon of younger people living with their parents longer, and the elderly living with relatives or in long-term care homes. Under the Minnesota Fed definition, the homeownership rates for 15- 19-year-olds in Canada are effectively zero, a much more sensible result.

Figure 4: Homeownership Rate by Age, Canada, 2021, Two Definitions

The new definition causes homeownership rates to fall by 15 percentage points for those under the age of 30, 10 points for those between 30 and 34, and a whopping 20 points for those over the age of 85.

Figure 5: Homeownership Rate by Age, Canada, 2021, Two Definitions

A few other points stand out to us:

• Even under the new definition, those aged 85 and up are still more likely to be homeowners in Canada than those between the ages of 30 to 34. The rate at which older Canadians sell their homes and move into other forms of housing is vastly overestimated by Canadian policy-makers, particularly at the municipal level.
• Further to the previous point, those aged between 75 and 84 have higher homeownership rates under the new definition than any age category under age 50.
• In 2021, less than one-quarter of all Canadians between the ages of 25 and 29 owned the home they lived in, either as an individual or a couple.

This new definition of homeownership from the Minnesota Fed is far more sensible than the traditional definition, and we are grateful that they created it. Where possible, we will utilize their definition in future work.

Submission statement:

Novorossiysk is Russia's biggest ​port by volume and handles up to one ​third of Russia's grain exports. The ban follows traffic restrictions introduced ‌earlier ⁠this month in the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait.

Novorossiysk also ships oil, metals and goods in containers. A government order published on July ​21 banned ​vessels from ⁠anchoring in areas without air defences at the port of Azov in the ​Sea of Azov and the port ​of Kavkaz ⁠in the Kerch Strait.

Archived version: https://archive.fo/OTI7v

Russia is no longer willing to return some occupied territories to Ukraine as part of any deal to end the war and plans to retain them as buffer zones, according to people close to the Kremlin.

Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to taking full control of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region by force and will now retain areas of Sumy and Kharkiv regions near the border with Russia as buffer zones, three people said, asking not to be identified discussing sensitive issues.

Putin has abandoned territorial concessions because Russia views increasingly confrontational statements from the US as evidence that informal understandings reached at his Alaska summit with President Donald Trump have collapsed, the people said.

While the US insists no deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine was reached at the summit last August, Kremlin officials have repeatedly asserted that a package of undertakings existed under a so-called “spirit of Anchorage” agreement between Putin and Trump. They included pressing Ukraine to surrender territory in its eastern Donetsk region in return for Russia handing back occupied areas of the northern Sumy and northeastern Kharkiv regions.

The Kremlin has hardened its position amid escalating Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia, including on Moscow, that have damaged oil refineries and sparked a nationwide fuel shortage. Trump also backed a new sanctions bill championed by the late Senator Lindsey Graham that would target the top five purchasers of Russian oil and gas with tariff rates of as much as 100%.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The summit between Trump and Putin was their longest face-to-face meeting and took place amid high expectations for a breakthrough to end the war. In the end, Putin left Anchorage without agreeing to a ceasefire to allow for peace talks, while Trump said it would be up to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to make a deal.

US-led negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on a peace deal have stalled since February as the Trump administration focused on the war with Iran.

Zelenskyy challenged Putin in an open letter in June to meet for direct peace talks to end the war that’s now in its fifth year. Putin rejected that offer and said his army should “keep working.”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio are attending a meeting of counterparts from the Association of South East Asian Nations in the Philippines. Rubio said Monday he’s “open” to speaking with Lavrov in Manila, though neither side has confirmed a meeting so far.

Russia has stepped up drone and missile attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities in recent weeks. Intense fighting continues in the Donetsk region centered around Konstiantynivka, a strategic logistics hub whose capture by Russia would open the way toward Ukraine’s main defensive strongholds of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

Putin wants Ukraine to surrender control of territory in Donetsk that his forces have failed to take in fighting since 2014. Ukraine rejects that demand and has proposed a halt to the war along the existing front lines.

Russia is prepared to return to negotiations only after Putin has achieved the objective of taking Donetsk, according to two of the people close to the Kremlin. Russia’s Defense Ministry has assured the president it can establish full control of the area by the end of the year, one person said.

Many in Russia’s military consider that timetable unrealistic and believe that it will only be able to take control of Donetsk region during 2027, according to a person close to the Defense Ministry in Moscow.

Rubio told reporters June 25 that “there was a proposal in Alaska, but there was no agreement in Alaska” on a deal to end the war. “If there had been an agreement, we would have had an end to the war,” he said.

Lavrov said in a statement next day that Putin had responded in Alaska to proposals previously brought to Moscow by Trump envoy Steve Witkoff.

“If one party, in this case the United States, puts forward its proposals for a settlement — for an approach to resolving this crisis — and the other party expresses concurrence with these proposals, then to state that no agreement was reached appears, to put it mildly, somewhat inelegant,” Lavrov said.

How do futile bombing campaigns fit into the theory of war?

This is an excellent, street level report by the New York Times of the recent anti-immigration protests, harassment and bigotry that has swept through South Africa.

It follows one particular anti-immigration activist/vigilante and one of her victims - a lawful immigrant from Congo whose home was broken into by a mob and whose family was illegally kicked out with their young children.

I have posted a lot about these xenophobic protests before. The reason I wanted to post this story too is because it is coming from the New York Times, the epitome of the mainstream media. There is a narrative that the Left or the mainstream ignore these kinds of actions because it is not happening in the West. This narrative is false. The NYT is covering it. The Guardian wrote an editorial with a strong condemnation. Mayor Mamdani condemned xenophobia while giving the Nelson Mandela lecture. And South Africa's trade unions and domestic left have organised in support of migrants and urged the government to protect people from harassment and intimidation.

What this article does nicely is to take you up close and to show that this really is xenophobia. South Africa's macroeconomic situation is different from the West. Our unemployment rate is sky high and our inequality is the worst in the world. You can have a discussion about the role of immigration in alleviating or worsening this situation. But there is no excuse for breaking into the home of a family of lawful, assimilated immigrants, evicting them and literally making their children cry.

Talking about opposition to nuclear energy. Now, "destroying our civilisation" may sound hyperbolic. But I assign high probability to the scenario that the upcoming damage that will be caused by global warming will produce catastrophic harm and suffering to billions of people, severe regional state failure, mass displacement, global economic and political crisis.The poorest countries will suffer the most, of course.(When has the world ever been fair?).

We could have supplied a dominant share of global electricity, supported extensive electrification and displaced enormous quantities of coal and gas if we simply continued in the glide path towards nuclear of the last mid century. Abundance without (much) sacrifice. It would be unfair to completely dismiss nuclear waste, but that negative is miniscule, compared to all the positives that could be reaped. Nuclear waste is measurable, containable and very small in volume.

Renewables will play their part, but they are not being rolled out fast enough to offset the damage we are wreaking on our environment.Variable renewable generation requires grids, storage, demand flexibility and firm low-carbon capacity. We already have a difficult transition without contending with all these as well. Nuclear is a mature technology. We could still deploy it at scale and reasonable cost if we simply rationalise regulations and do a build out that would maximise economies of scale.

I think the Anti-Nuclears are motivated by hatred and irrational fear, mainly. Hatred of development, capitalism, growth, industrialisation, science to a smaller extent, than any real positive concerns. Irrational fear caused by ignorance and adjacence to nuclear weaponry. Their hatred may or may not be justified, and their fear is most likely not, but, in the end, it is leading to the future destruction of many lives. We are allowing people with an ideology to commit crimes against our futures. I cannot understand why the backlash is not more mainstream.

Edit:Thanking everyone for the replies. The hatred point was a bit overblown, and there are many valid critiques. My primary argument is that we are facing an existential threat. We needed to transition off fossil fuels 20 years ago. Now all alternative options must be pursued to insure a chance of survival , especially nuclear, while doubling down on renewables.

-The growth rate of renewable installed capacity is in a league that nuclear cannot hope to match, which we need to double down on. But a gw of solar installed capacity does not equal a gw of nuclear installed capacity. We need to consider the energy output, which is approximately 5 times higher per unit of nuclear installed capacity than solar installed capacity .(1.75 TWh/year for 1 gw solar compared to 8 TWh/year for installed nuclear). So nameplate expansion should be taken with a grain of salt. -

-Predicating an entire system on renewables is not proven. Since output is weather-dependent and strongly correlated across wide geographical areas, adding more installations does not proportionately increase dependable capacity. We will encounter system transitions due to correlation that need substantially more expenditures on grid overbuilding, redundant capacity, load balancing , demand management, and also managing excess production by redundancies.

-Much of nuclear’s current cost disadvantage, especially in Western countries, idue to lost expertise, fragmented supply chains, design changes and poor project management.

-Long term storage of energy across seasons is a bit difficult. You can store 1 gw production with 4 gwh storage for four hours, but physics dictates you need 96 gwh for 4 days, so you can judge cross seasonal storage.

-A purely renewable grid will be forced to maintain ccgts or other fossil generation as insurance. Almost all of our current fossil generation will be needed to insure the bigger grids of the future.

-Nuclear plants can operate for 60-80 years. We have yet to gauge the relative costs of renewables against such a long amortisation schedule for nuclear costs.

-The supply chain risks for renewables are obvious: Grades of mined copper ores have been falling for decades etc.

Nuclear and fossil fuels are in competition to be the backbone of our grid, not renewables.