AFC North:
Baltimore Ravens 13-4 (2nd seed)
Cincinnati Bengals: 10-7 (7th seed))
Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-8
Cleveland Browns: 3-14
AFC South:
Jacksonville Jaguars: 11-6 (4th seed)
Houston Texans: 10-7 (6th seed)
Tennessee Titans: 7-10
Indianapolis Colts: 4-13
AFC East:
Buffalo Bills: 12-5 (3rd seed)
New England Patriots: 8-9
New York Jets: 6-11
Miami Dolphins: 3-14
AFC West:
Kansas City Chiefs: 13-4 (1st seed)
Los Angeles Chargers: 11-6 (5th seed)
Denver Broncos: 9-8
Las Vegas Raiders: 5-12
NFC North:
Green Bay Packers: 11-6 (2nd seed)
Detroit Lions: 10-7 (6th seed)
Chicago Bears: 10-7 (7th seed)
Minnesota Vikings: 8-9
NFC South:
Tampa Bay Bucs: 9-8 (3rd seed)
Atlanta Falcons: 8-9
Carolina Panthers: 7-10
New Orleans Saints: 6-11
NFC East:
New York Giants: 10-7 (4th seed)
Dallas Cowboys: 9-8
Philadelphia Eagles: 8-9
Washington Commanders: 5-12
NFC West:
Los Angeles Rams: 13-4 (1st seed)
Seattle Seahawks: 12-5 (5th seed)
San Francisco 49ers: 8-9
Arizona Cardinals: 4-13
For context, here's how the distribution of my predictions compares to the last two NFL seasons:
| Wins |
2024 |
2025 |
My Predictions |
| 13+ |
2 |
3 |
3 |
| 12 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
| 11 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
| 10 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
| 9 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
| 8 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
| 7 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
| 6 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
| 5 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
| 4 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
| 3 or fewer |
1 |
2 |
2 |
What were the typical NFL trends used to inform these predictions?
| Metric |
Typical NFL Expectation |
|
|
| Worst-to-first division winners |
1–2 divisions per year |
| New playoff teams |
5–7 of the 14 |
| Teams improving by 4+ wins |
5–8 teams |
| Teams declining by 4+ wins |
5–8 teams |
| Division winners repeating |
3–5 of 8 |
| Wild-card teams with 11+ wins |
Usually 1–3 |
Who are the biggest risers?
| Team |
2025 Record |
My 2026 Prediction |
Improvement |
|
|
|
|
| Kansas City Chiefs |
6–11 |
13–4 |
+7 wins |
| New York Giants |
4–13 |
10–7 |
+6 wins |
| Baltimore Ravens |
8–9 |
13–4 |
+5 wins |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
6–11 |
10–7 |
+4 wins |
| Tennessee Titans |
3–14 |
7–10 |
+4 wins |
Who are the worst fallers?
| Team |
2025 Record |
2026 Prediction |
Change |
|
|
|
|
| New England Patriots |
14–3 |
8–9 |
−6 wins |
| Denver Broncos |
14-3 |
9-8 |
-5 wins |
| San Francisco 49ers |
12–5 |
8–9 |
−4 wins |
| Indianapolis Colts |
8–9 |
4–13 |
−4 wins |
| Miami Dolphins |
7-10 |
3-14 |
-4 win |
What is a one-score wonder? Teams with an unusually elite record in one-score games (7 points or less) that almost immediately regress the next season.
| Team |
One-score record |
Record the following year |
Change? |
|
|
|
|
| Kansas City Chiefs (2024) |
11-0 (15-2) |
6-11 |
-11 wins |
| Minnesota Vikings (2024) |
8-1 (14-3) |
9-8 |
-5 wins |
| Washington Commanders (2024) |
9-4 (12-5) |
5-12 |
-4 wins |
| Denver Broncos (2025) |
11-2 (14-3) |
9-8 (projected) |
-5 wins (projected) |
The quarterback sophomore surge:
| Quarterback |
Rookie Season |
Sophomore season |
| Josh Allen * |
2,074 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. |
3,089 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. |
| Justin Herbert * |
4,336 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, and 10 interceptions |
5,014 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. |
| Trevor Lawrence |
3,641 passing yards, 12 passing touchdowns, and 17 interceptions) |
4,113 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, and 8 interceptions |
| Caleb Williams |
3,541 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions |
3,942 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions |
| Drake Maye * |
2,276 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, and 10 interceptions |
4,394 yards with 31 touchdowns and just 8 interceptions |
| Cam Ward |
3,169 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions |
Projection: Mini progression |
| Jaxson Dart |
2,272 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions |
Projection: Very noticeable progression |
Explaining the bolder predictions:
- The Indianapolis Colts' 4-13 prediction: This prediction isn't based on a lack of talent, but this feels like a situation where several factors could snowball quickly like it started to in the back half of 2025. Daniel Jones' sensitive recovery timeline simply doesn't mesh well with a head coach already facing mounting pressure Combine that with an unforgiving opening stretch to start the year, Shane Steichen could be out the door by week 4. Realistically, there's no incentive for Carlie Irsay Gordon to keep that staff after a potential 0-3 start even though she seems like one of these owners who would be willing to exercise a patience approach. Still though if there are losses early on, they have to be competitive to warrant selling that patient approach. Even then, fans might still be dissatisfied because that still essentially leads to the same results of NFL purgatory of 8-9 or 9-8. All that said, if a house cleaning does happen early, and the quarterback situation isn't fully resolved, expect a Zach Wilson-Mike White-Chris Boyle type of deal. A merry-go-round.
- The Kansas City Chiefs rapid re-ascension: Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have averaged roughly 12.8 wins per season since 2018, which rounds up to 13 wins per year. While a 6-win season was a significant outlier that lowered that average, it doesn't erase the consistency of this partnership. This is one of the NFL's most reliable regular-season performers, and until proven otherwise, the Kansas City Chiefs should be viewed as a team with one of the highest floors in the league.
- New York Giants worst to first: This prediction is largely the result of excellent drafting by Joe Schoen over multiple years, combined with the hiring of John Harbaugh, who immediately gives the New York Giants the best head coach in the division.
Answering some questions:
- Who wins the Super Bowl? The Los Angeles Rams.
- Which head coaches get fired? Todd Monken (David Culley 2.0), Aaron Glenn, Todd Bowles, Shane Steichen, Kevin O'Connell, and Nick Sirianni.
- Who is the coach of the year? John Harbaugh.
- Does Fernando Mendoza play well? Yes but in spurts.
- Which player do fans turn on? Baker Mayfield (again).
- Which quarterback is in most need of a head coaching change in 2027? Jalen Hurts.
- Which head coaches are on the hot seat? Kyle Shanahan, Dave Canales and Mike Vrabel (due to more surfacing off the field scandals in tandem with decline on the field).
- Will Shedeur Sanders be on the Cleveland Browns in 2027? No.
- Does Matt Stafford retire? Yes.
- Who represents the Super Bowl in the AFC? The Cincinnati Bengals.
- Which former head coaches get a second chance and with who? Sean McDermott with the Philadelphia Eagles, Mike McDaniel with the Washington Commanders, Kevin O'Connell with the New York Jets, Brian Flores with the Minnesota Vikings, and Shane Steichen with the Cleveland Browns.
- Who wins defensive rookie of the year? Arvell Reese.
- Which new head coaching candidate is everyone excited about and where do they go? Grant Udinski staying in Florida with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
- Who has the first overall pick? The Cleveland Browns.
- Does Ty Simpson start a game? No.
- The biggest "we told you so" moment from NFL fans? The Jeremiyah Love pick not being smart for the Arizona Cardinals given where they are.
- Are there any late round quarterbacks who start? Yes. Carson Beck but he doesn't play well.
- What are some potential quarterback controversies? Quinn Ewers being better than Malik Willis.