r/quant • u/Daniel_Aperiodic • 7h ago
Data Which microstructure metrics have actually survived live trading for you?
Ive implemented a fair number of the textbook microstructure metrics while working with raw crypto perp tick data.
The more I compare them, the shorter the list I actually reach for !
If I had to keep only five:
- Order book imbalance / OFI: still the strongest short-horizon predictor Ive found. Static imbalance and Cont-style OFI aren't the same object, but both seem to contain real information. The problem is that the half-life seems tiny: by the time youve paid fees and accounted for queue position and latency, a nice t-stat doesn't necessarily translate into PnL.
- Amihud illiquidity. almost embarrassingly simple but I keep failing to replace it with something more sophisticated; I mostly use it as a liquidity or regime variable rather than a trading signal.
- Effective spread / realized spread Extremely useful for understanding execution quality and adverse selection. I'm much less convinced they belong as features in predictive models, although Id be interested to hear if anyone has had success there.
- Kyle's lambda I trust the ranking across instruments more than the estimated values themselves. Small implementation choices (sampling interval, trade signing or outlier treatment) seem to move the estimate more than Id like.
- VPIN : The one Im most sceptical of: I can usually make it identify stressed markets, but so can realised volatility. The Andersen Bondarenko critique feels fairly convincing to me, although I'd be happy to be proven wrong by someone who's used it successfully in production.
For context, this is all on crypto perps, so I wouldnt expect the conclusions to transfer unchanged to equities/ futures.
Im particularly interested in hearing from people who've used these in live systems rather than backtests.
Which measures have actually survived implementation costs for you? Are there any papers from the last decade that genuinely changed your view on the classics?
Bias disclosure!: I build infrastructure that computes these metrics as a living, so Im probably more sympathetic to them than I should be.