I've been following the war fairly closely since the invasion. At the time I thought it was crazy to see tank movements on snapchat map, now I still think it's insane how OSINT and everyone in the general public having cameras connected to the internet makes it easy to see though propaganda and narratives pushed by traditional media.
Anywhoo, watching this 3 day Special Military Operation for the last 4 years has been interesting, because It's pretty much SHTF for millions of people, it's got everything a prepper wants - Economic collapse, that red dawn fantasy, an underdog story, the threat of nuclear weapons. I think these are core ideas that go beyond your country getting invaded, I'm a generalist, I think if you're pretty well covered for a couple months "suspension of service" you're good to go most of the time. Here's what I've noticed and I'm wondering if anyone else sees lessons learned
This is a long one so here is the TL;DR up front.
- Flexibility in long term planning and openness to emigrating is a much better investment than stocking and planning for long term self sustainment.
- Starlink is probably the best and most robust coms backup plan in 99% of situations.
- The most dangerous threat is the one you've normalized. Map your local infrastructure, audit your information diet across all sides, and practice the uncomfortable skill of being wrong about your team.
1- Bug out Vs Bug in.
the main lesson here is SHTF can happen and the rest of the world will move on. Say for example, you live in the 72nd largest city in Ukraine, Pokrovsk. Pokrovsk was under attack by the russians for about two years before being captured recently.
Many folks who come across this sub have this goal/fantasy that they would live in the city where they work, and would be able to go out to the farm/bunker/compound when things get tough and ride out the shit. How this plays out in Pokrovsk - you just spent 2 years in your compound in the woods, but now that the front line has moved on beyond the base - your city is in ruins, also you're in Russian territory now, a big "now what" moment as you realize you have no job, a gap in your resume, also you're still in a war zone. This is a generational financial blunder. It doesn't even have to be a war to find parallels - A lot of people left New Orleans after Katina and never came back. Sometimes you've just got to move and move on.
You know what Ukrainians are doing really well? The ones that fled to South Florida and are opening successful businesses. For the price of your hardened shelter just out side of Provo, you could easily fund a meaningful fresh start in a different country. The world is very big. Just because your economy is collapsing/being bombed/ washed away, it does not mean the whole world is. This does not have to be about war. A disaster could make your current home unlivable or uninsurable for the foreseeable future, it doesn't have to be a war.
I started working on this long post before the situation in Crimea had completely gone to SHTF, but it's the same.
Lesson learned: Flexibility in long term planning and openness to emigrating is a much better investment than stocking and planning for long term self sustainment.
2- Comms Plans
I am a ham radio operator for the love of the game. I was a Ham before I was a prepper, and while I get why people think Ham radio is the only way to go, and the last thing to keep working when SHTF, Watching how coms have been run in Ukrane has shifted my mindset completely.
CivDiv has some great vlogs about his time as a drone operator on the front. A lot of this shit, Airstrikes, reconnaissance, coordination, is being done by kids in a hole in the ground with an Eco Flow and a starlink via discord, WhatsApp, and telegram. Preston Stewart has show this to be true recently as well. The Russians were operating the same way until Elon turned off their starlink, which I think was one of the things that kicked off the recent events that has Russia on the back foot.
This is a bonus lesson learned on this point, on the front, these guys are running a generator for a couple hours a day to charge the eco flow, and running on battery the rest of the time. I have solar panels, but they are incredibly fussy, I think if you can make a hybrid approach with a generator and battery bank, that's probably the best way to keep things running during a prolonged blackout if you don't have a whole home system.
As long as you're on the same team as the US government, starlink is going to keep working for you, and is going to be cheaper and easier than any other radio system. I am never going to get my mom to get on HF and make a contact with me 200 miles away. But she usually can connect to Wi-Fi, and use WhatsApp, so that's become the best C in Pace.
Lesson learned: Star link is probably the best and most robust coms backup plan in 99% of situations.
3 & 4 - Situational awareness and being a boiled frog
This one is kind of a winding narrative, but stick with me.
As part of the Ukraine war being my special interest, I have a unique Instagram account whose algorithm is almost entirely in Russian. Now, I don't speak these languages, but modern technology has made translation incredibly easy.
I would group most of the high level posts I see into three groups:
- Russian Propaganda
- Western Propaganda,
Russians who still have Instagram
While some are humorous, nothing groundbreaking is in the post/reel itself. Lots of new recruits in the Russian military doing the same dumb shit American recruits would do. I feel bad for the girlfriends/wives posing the goodbye reels as their man gets on a bus somewhere, knowing from my side that 1,000+ Russians are dying every day, and the odds are I've liked at least one dead guy's reel.
The comments section is where it's interesting. There are always a lot of pro Ukrainian comments, but so many people are just clueless as to what is happening. Drones are flying though Moscow and there is a very obvious fire happening in the central refinery, and the the comments are still, "what is happening? why would you post this? How could this happen?" I get that they see a different media representation of the situation, but it's interesting to watch in real time people wake up to reality. Things they couldn't imagine being a problem are now a problem and they're pooping their pants.
I have watched the types of targets that have been chosen across Russia, Ukraine, and the middle east, and I've had a good look around to see what type of critical infrastructure I may have in my back yard. If nothing else it's a really cool exercise in understanding how the world around us works and how much we rely on random people doing a good job and following policy and procedures to prevent Catastrophe on a daily bases. A lot of people doing sketchy shit safely For example, did you know the Florida East Coast Railway runs an LNG powered fleet? If one of these is compromised, the evacuation radius is a mile. The "Life threatening adverse health effects/death" circle is several blocks in every direction. I live in on the border of "serious irreversible health effects" and "Notable but reversable discomfort" in terms of distance from the track.
Likewise, do you know how your gas gets to your tank? Crimea is currently more or less out of gasoline at the moment, because it was mostly coming in via truck, and the trucks and bridges have become regular targets in Ukraine's medium range strike campaign. More recently, the sea of Azov has been cut off for resupply as well. Crime aint got no gas in it, or if you do find gas, it's the equivalent of $20/gallon. It's a fun night on google earth figuring out where your local storage and distribution points are, and how natural or man made disasters could impact the critical supply chain.
Third prong here, are you able to spot propaganda from your government, even if they are on your "team?" ( I am not trying to air grievances, this is for illustration only, these apply to both teams) I think it's important to keep tabs on your "Woke Leftist Mob" friends as it is to keep tabs on your rightwing "literally fascist" friends. Not everyone is good at discerning bullshit but people are generally good at seeing things. People are afraid of the FEMA camps until the FEMA camps were on your team locking up people you don't like. People on your team are protestors, people on their team are rioters. "Everything is going according to plan" or "The plan is rapidly falling apart, or there was clearly no plan" depending on who came up with the plan. Both things can be true in each of these cases, but I think one of the most important skills is understanding nuance and empathy, as well as critical thinking when presented with a wide array of choices.
Lesson learned: The most dangerous threat is the one you've normalized. Map your local infrastructure, audit your information diet across all sides, and practice the uncomfortable skill of being wrong about your team.
Love to hear your thought and feelings in the comments.