I voted for you in the Senedd election.

Now I've just seen this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crmrww978yvo

Badger Culling hasn't worked in England so why would it work in Wales?

The fact you backed Reform on this is disgusting.

Shame on you.

When's the next Welsh by-election?

Photo taken by me

We did it!

43 seats! An absolutely outstanding result.

Coalition talks now begin - what do you expect?

It's a really poor show that as far as I can see not a single source has provided a detailed breakdown of how the seats were won, therefore not showing how close a number of contests were.

Take Sir Gaerfyrddin: for the 6th seat the Reform vote share was 32.8 / 3 = 10.93 for Plaid it was 43.1 / 4 = 10.78

For Pen-y-Bont Bro Morgannwg for the 6th seat Labour had 11.6 to Plaid's 11.17

For Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf the Greens had 10.2 to Reform 9.8, Tory 9.6, Lib Dems 9.6

In Casnewydd Islwyn Tory 11.4 Reform 10.97

In Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Reform 11.43 Labour 11.1

In Pen-y-Bont Bro Morgannwg Labour 11.6 Plaid 11.17

In Bangor Mon Conwy Conservative 12.4 Plaid 11.23

In Clwyd Reform 10.77 Labour 10.4

In Fflint Wrecsam Labour 12.2 Reform 12.07

So that's 3 seats Plaid were within half a percentage point of winning. With those 3 extra seats they could have done deals with Lib Dems and Reform (combined).

Reform narrowly win and lost three seats each. Labour 3 narrow wins to 2.

8 constituencies were decided by less than half a percentage point. Slightly fewer than my prediction.

Amélie Poulain is not a true candidate at the elections unfortunately

I just wanted to share this interview with Rhun that I found really interesting; what do you guys think of his answers?

Hi, if anyone is able to spare a moment to try out my new (BETA) non-partisan UK Politics & Elections site I'd be super grateful. It's an attempt to make accessing UK election and candidate information as user friendly and intuitive as possible.

https://www.float.vote/ -- search your constituency
https://www.float.vote/interests -- easy view of members interests
https://www.float.vote/polls -- poll of polls with different views
https://www.float.vote/browse -- browse all constituencies

I'm trying to catch any inconsistencies or anything that's just outright wrong in the way I'm presenting the data.

The site is entirely driven by open source data (see the credits page) which I'm desperately trying to ensure I display properly.

It's also work in progress, built on a shoestring and undoubtedly error prone, but if I can get some feedback I can hopefully address any issues and improve.

Many thanks.

Last night, the Greens did their best by-election by orders of magnitude: fourfold, fivefold if we go off raw votes.

I've overall been triumphant myself; obviously they are in competition with us, don't align cleanly on all issues and are much more socially charged than us, but it is always good to see that a good left wing party won a stonking majority against Reform and Labour in what was otherwise written off or "too close to call," in fact Hannah Spencer's victory over Matt Goodwin is greater than Whittle's over Llŷr Powell by about 2%, though Whittle still won 6% more of the electorate.

I think there's two ways to see this:
- We are the natural left wing choice for Wales, had a similar stonking victory in Caerphilly followed by a meteoric national rise in the polls, and when we're in a position where the polls put us 1% off the minimum needed to form majority (37% versus 38% needed), the overall pattern is very desirable.
- Due to the proportional nature of the new Senedd, the Greens polling higher than the 13% YouGov gave them will increase the threshold we need to hit to achieve a clean majority while also peeling off our base, meaning just a 1% increase in the Greens polling can easily force us to target 40+% of the vote, which seems unlikely currently.
My current advice to Green voters has been to vote Plaid, both on the tactical vision of a majority and as being a more competent Welsh focused vision of the Green's most favourable policies.

What do we think?

(Parliament chart created with Flourish)

(Senedd calculator used is Cavendish)

Labour in Westminster are right-wing puppets. Reform have ties to Russia. There's only one party that can (and must) win in Wales this time - Plaid.

Can you fill me in on what the party is like? I'm a first-time voter, too.

Will a pact with labour be needed to ensure our majority? Or will reform try and form a coalition with the tories to kick us out?

What are your predictions?

I've just received my membership confirmation and I've been trying to get on to the membership page but it just logs me out. Does anyone else get this issue? Is this just what the members page is?

Plaid Cymru benefits from Reform

A bit of speculation. Reform continue to gain support in Wales.Labour collapse. Plaid collect centrist, left and even some Tory votes. Tactical anti-Reform voting assist Plaid. Reform indirectly results in an independent Wales.

Ydyn nhw'n cofio bod elecsiwn flwyddyn i ffwrdd? DIM sylw o gwbwl yn y cyfryngau poblog ynghych a'i polisiau

DIM sylw gan unrhyw aelod o'r plaid yn erbyn sylwadau Farage am waredu'r Senedd

DIM aelod o'r plaid ar deledu na radio, papur newydd na cyfarfodydd cyhoeddus yn hybu'r hyn ma Plaid yn ei wneud dros Gymru

Pam nad ydyn nhw yn mynnu sedd ar pob trafodaeth etholiadaol/politicaidd? Mae angen pledio'r cyhoedd yn gyson gyda'i enw a'i polisiau i gael unrhyw fath o gyfle yn y De ag ardaloedd newydd y Gogledd a gwrthgyferbynu propagada Saesneg sydd pob twll a chornel

Mae nhw'n ymddwyn fel bod Reform wedi curo yn barod - lle mae dannedd Plaid Cymru wedi mynd, lle mae ysbryd Saunders a'r awydd i wella Cymru?

Happy 100th birthday, Plaid Cymru