It’s a total win-win for them, and the exact same headache for us. If this administration falls next term, they can thank this fuel policy. It is the exact hill they chose to die on. Mark my words.

The overall instability around oil is triggering the global shift away from fossil fuels toward alternatives like electric vehicles, e-bikes, and electrified heating. Under the assumption that global oil demand and prices will soon peak and steadily decline, I am interested in perspectives on whether countries with large, unexplored oil and gas reserves should still pursue fossil fuel extraction.

Given the predictable long-term price slump, is it rational for a nation to invest the billions of dollars required to initiate new oil production and risk unprofitability or low returns, or would it be wiser to focus directly on renewable energy?

A case in point is the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which has semi-proven(plenty of papers and preliminary research) reserves estimated at 30 billion barrels.

It is not my intention here to convince you that the peak oil thesis of the late 00's was correct, just to explain what it was and why it seemed plausible at the time. Obviously a decade and a half of political and technological developments have changed that picture.

Let’s say you were living your life in back in 2008. BOOM! Great financial crisis, bank bailouts, all that stuff. Ostensibly the cause of the crisis was a bunch of mortgage defaults, but there were folks who noticed how the price of oil (and thus gas) had spiked before the crash. Could it be that the spike in fuel prices had driven the timing and severity of the crash? Might it happen again?

Some of the main points emphasized by people who argued for taking peak oil seriously were as follows:

1. Oil is necessarily a finite resource. At some point the world will pump the most barrels it ever has and then decline from there
2. Declines in oil producing nations can be exacerbated by increasing domestic consumption. Oil rich nations often subsidize fuel, giving people little incentive to economize. Exports are then pinched between less supply and greater demand.
3. Oil storage, refining and transport infrastructure is fragile, and a lot of it is located in a part of the world not especially known for stability. War, sabotage or even simple accident could take big chunks of the world's oil supply offline in a matter of days, and take potentially years to replace.
4. Before you pump oil you have to find it. Oil discoveries peaked decades ago and have been falling steadily ever since.
5. Not every barrel of oil is identical. Some sources, like tar sands and tight oil, require so many resources to produce that they deliver significantly less net energy to human civilization.
6. While alternatives to liquid fuels do exist, it remains to be seen if they can be delivered on time, at a workable price, and at the scale the world requires. Into this bucket put things like corn ethanol, biodiesel, algae biofuels, wind-to-liquids, etc. etc. Crucially, some of these sources of fuel have such low energy return on energy invested (EROEI), often below 2, that they would never be significant sources of net energy.

So why are we here? Obviously the worst predictions of peak oil doomers haven't come true. Planes are flying, gas stations are full and grocery stores are stocked with food. Well most obviously, recent hostilities between the US/Israel and Iran have brought both real and potential supply disruptions. On the positive side, the surge in battery electric vehicles, along with cheap solar and battery electricity to power them, have made the prospect of peak oil *demand* look a lot more likely. We are here because we agree that, to at least some extent, future supply of liquid fuels is both important and not guaranteed. Welcome to that discussion.

This is long 2 hour podcast on the E20 controversy from the side of the Indian right. Their excuses are 3.

1. Rupee fell cause we bought much of Chinese oil as Chinese ports refused to purchase over priced oil, reneging on contracts on a loss rather than buy the oil.
2. We need E20 because Actual fuel would cost 160-200 per litre if we sold it post refining.
3. E20 damage is real but E20 isn't the only cause. Badly maintained petrol pumps, untrust worthy sources, adulteration with the BS sources for money, these are common practices in India, which are costing the economy.
4. Supply chains for EVs are neither efficient nor cost effective and where people like Sanjeev Sanyal are asking for larger storage solutions, like large scale energy storage via better battery tech including even Sodium Ion if possible, the biggest issue is investment into the same isn't very cost effective and E85 and flex fuel vehicles are the only solution in 2-3 years time.

Essentially, we are in a big fiscal trap in every direction and this is partially because of the cowardice of the government in 2021 with regards to the implementation of the Farm Laws.

But, two points by them where a bit weird.

A. The surplus from blending is only 30k Cr as farmers take upto 3.3 lakh crores as payment for producing maize and millets as government wants people to move away from Rice and Wheat cultivation as they are destroying the soil and water table as well as making the country obese.

This makes too much sense, yet, why do Indians protect rice and wheat like they are some gods?

B. If we knew all these issues existed, why didn't we bring in a law against giving of freebies without a cost benefit analysis white paper compulsorily to be published with right to challenge in court for 90 days. The farm laws could have had lesser issues if they had explained all this.

They are getting a lot of hate for defending all this but adulteration of many things is getting way too common today even though it's statistically an insignificant number, over time, it will become significant if the government takes no action.

First China, not IEA.

Peak oil was 2025.

The New York Times wrote that gas costs $9.10 per gallon. Once winter sets in so will the prices until next spring when the big tankers can bring in the next shipment. Somehow it costs less to import fuel from Koreas then buy it directly from Alaska refineries. If anyone has a company that does wind and solar Alaska needs you now more than ever! Bring on the ev and hybrid vehicles. Perhaps the Japanese truck with 40 miles to the gallon would be desirable.