We are now in the 1980s—the decade of decision.
Every decade is a decade of decision in one way or another, but this one is different because it involves
the whole world and because it involves the life and death of civilization.
It was possible in past periods of history for a particular civilization to decline while others remained
flourishing. When western Europe was in the "Dark Age" between A.D. 500 and 1000, southeastern
Europe, northern Africa, and southern Asia were doing very well.
And it was possible for the civilization that did decline to recover and move even higher than before, as
western Europe began to do after A.D. 1000.
This may not be possible now. Thanks to the steady advance of science and technology, the world has
become so small that it is now a single economic unit with the welfare of each advanced portion of it
dependent on all the rest.
Thanks to the steady advance of science and technology, the stakes are now so high, the requirement for
material resources and energy so intense, the numbers of people and the intricacy of the environment in
which they live so great, that any stumble could mean so huge a smash as to make recovery impossible.
And, thanks to the steady advance of science and technology, the means for destruction in the hands of
human beings is so great that the world could be ultimately devastated for thousands of years to come if
we were to try to fight a war with all the power at our disposal.
But, then, thanks also to the steady advance of science and technology, there are possible solutions
ahead if we care to take advantage of them.
Let us first list the major crises we will face in the 1980s.
First and most immediately crucial is the matter of energy. Our civilization runs on energy and always has.
The history of humanity is that of the slow, but steady, increase in our ability to make use of greater and
greater sources of energy, until finally, in the eighteenth century, we learned to make use of fossil fuels
and to use them to run steam engines. With that began the modern age of industrialization.
The Industrial Revolution was powered by burning coal throughout the nineteenth century. That was
good enough for the steam engine but the internal-combustion engine required liquid fuel, and in the
twentieth century, with automobiles and airplanes leading the way, the world began to shift to oil. This
accelerated and after World War II oil became the chief power source the world over. It was the most
convenient and, for a while, the cheapest energy source the world had ever seen, and for thirty years the
planet boomed.
But there is only so much oil in the ground and, at the present rate of use, it will all be gone in between
thirty and fifty years.
At the present rate of use. If the rate of use increases, the rate of production cannot for very long keep
pace. During the 1980s, the two lines could cross and production may fall below what people would like
to be able to consume.
In fact, the 1970s were shaken by the advance tremors of the earthquake. The price of oil has risen
steadily and rapidly since 1973. To be sure, this seems to be the result of the voluntary action of the
oil-producing (OPEC) nations, but they are able to raise the prices when they do only because they
know their customers must have the oil and that it will be in increasingly short supply.
Even if somehow the OPEC nations could be persuaded to sell their oil cheaply, or give it away for free,
that wouldn't help. It would only mean that the oil would be used to a greater extent than ever and would
run out sooner, and then would come the real disaster. In fact, it might be argued that OPEC is doing the
world a favor by raising the price of oil. It encourages the world to use oil more sparingly so that it will
last longer, and it also encourages the world to seek alternative sources of energy.
That is the first crucial life-and-death decision that the world must make in the 1980s.
Either the world will continue to rely on oil, burning it as quickly as it can, at any price, until there just isn't
enough to be had so that the whole world breaks up into scavenging bands, each trying to survive at the
expense of the others, and civilization is destroyed—or else the world must make the deliberate decision
to spare oil, lower waste, and needless luxury use, and develop alternative sources of energy.
That or else decision must be reached before the end of the 1980s, or it could be too late to avoid
catastrophe.
It is not likely that people will be able to concentrate on the great issue of energy and survival if their
attention is distracted.Through all of history, there has been a tendency for nations to try to solve their problems through war. If
the food supply is low, rob your neighbor; if the restlessness of the nobility threatens the stability of a
nation, send them off on a crusade; if a well-trained army has nothing to do and is getting rusty, start a
career of conquest.
Long-established habits are hard to break. Even if a nation realizes that it is no longer rational to make
war, it will still go through the motions of preparing for one. After all, each nation asks itself, who knows
if a neighbor nation might not be preparing for conquest? Besides almost every nation has some grievance
against its neighbor, so that one seeks "justice" and the other fears "revenge."
The 1970s saw a number of wars in the Middle East, in the horn of Africa, in Southeast Asia. Even
where there is no active war, terrorist activities are to be found in Northern Ireland, in Spain, in Italy, in
Germany, and so on.
And every year, the world, as a whole, spends $500 billion on armaments.
Even small wars are destructive and they always threaten the possibility that the superpowers may be
drawn in, and that a confrontation of ordinary missiles and explosives may turn into a war of nuclear
weapons. Even if there were absolutely no wars, large or small, and no terrorism, as long as the nations
prepare for war at the present rate, they waste energy in enormous quantities and hasten the day when
energy-lack may topple civilization.
Besides, as long as every small group of people concentrates on its own short-range goals, its own
"justice," its own "revenge," its own "national security," there will be no attention paid to the overall
problems of survival that face civilization and humanity. And when civilization crumbles and billions die
and humanity is reduced to broken bits of scavenging bands of tattered barbarians, where will all that
justice and revenge and national security be?
So that is the second crucial life-and-death decision the world must make in the 1980s.
Either it will continue to behave as though the world were still a nineteenth-century conglomeration of
nations, warring and preparing for war, each trying to improve its standing at the expense of the others,
each trying to dominate its region, its continent, or the whole planet—or else the nations must make the
deliberate decision to stand together and, understanding that the crisis in energy could put an end to all
civilization everywhere, agree to a planetary attack on the crisis, leaving all minor problems to decision by
arbitration, compromise, goodwill, and patience.
That or else decision must be reached before the end of the 1980s, or it is likely to be too late to help.
Even new sources of energy, no matter how copious and cheap, and even a cooperating group of
nations, no matter how sincerely friendly, are not likely to solve the world's problems if the population of
the earth continues to rise. If we continue to add somewhere between 1 and 2 percent to the population
each year, the present 4,000 million will become 6,000 million by the year 2000. In the 1970s we added
about 700 million people to the population of the world, and in the 1980s we may add 800 million.
We are not feeding the population of the world adequately now; we are sure to feed them less
adequately if we add the equivalent of another India to the world in the 1980s. It will be all the worse as
the energy supply becomes tighter and tighter, for one of the reasons we can manage to feed the world as
well as we do right now is because, in some parts of the world, farming machinery, irrigation pumps,
fertilizer, and pesticides are used. All of this requires much energy, and as the availability of energy
declines so will the food supply.
This, then, is the third crucial life-and-death decision the world must make in the 1980s.
Either it will continue to increase its population so that there will be more and more starvation and an
increasingly desperate need for food that will cause humanity to place more and more pressure on the
environment (further reducing its food-growing capacity) until the nations of the world go to war with
each other or break up into scavenging bands with each scrabbling for food that isn't there—or else
humanity must make the deliberate decision to control population by limiting the birth rate everywhere.
That or else decision must be reached before the end of the 1980s, or it is likely to be too late to help.
It is easy to say or else, but how exactly can we implement that or else?
In the case of energy, the widespread use of oil, its cheapness and convenience, has allowed us to
atrophy the use of other energy sources, but we can go back to them. We can build more and safer
fission power plants, develop hydroelectric power, increase the use of coal or oil shale, grow plants
especially designed to supply fuel, build windmills, make use of tides, of geothermal energy, and so on.
All this would be difficult and would involve a good deal of effort and capital expenditure, but every bit
we do in this direction will tend to conserve oil, stretch out the supply, and give us more time to further
develop the alternative sources.
Meanwhile, we can use the extra time to obtain energy in completely new ways that may be even more
convenient and cheaper than oil ever was.
One possible route is the development of nuclear fusion. We don't have it yet, even in the laboratory,
though scientists have been working on it for thirty years, but we may find the answer in the 1980s—even
though it will then take some decades to translate it into large, practical power stations.
Another route is the development of solar energy. This can be done, to begin with, in small-scale fashion
in individual buildings, and that will spare oil. Eventually, solar energy can be used on a larger scale by
coating large desert areas of the earth with photoelectric cells.
On a larger scale still, we can build solar power stations in space. We can imagine square miles of
photoelectric cells exposed to radiation in space, in orbits that will place them in the earth's shadow for
no more than 2 percent of the time and where there will never be any atmospheric interference at all.
Numbers of such solar power stations can be built, and they may be an answer to the earth's energy
problems for billions of years—if we last that long.
It's possible! The United States and the Soviet Union have shown that human beings could remain in
space for three to six months at a time without bad effects. What's more, the United States has
developed a "shuttle" spacecraft that can lift masses into space and return for more. The reusability of
such a craft will greatly lessen the expense of spaceflight.
It is therefore possible now to make up our minds to begin a project of putting space to use—of
collecting energy in space and beaming it down to the earth; of building space settlements to house men
and women in small independent worlds of their own and leaving the building of further energy stations
and other structures to them; of building a mining station on the moon to supply the metals, concrete, soil,
glass, and oxygen for such settlements and such structures; of building observatories and laboratories and
factories in space—in general of expanding the range of humanity from the world in which it has been
confined through all its history to a much larger realm.
All this cannot be accomplished in the 1980s, but a beginning must be made. If, in the 1980s, we do notdecide to extend our reach into space, then thereafter it may well be too late. We will not have time to
overtake catastrophe.
Can it be done if humanity insists on spending its time, its effort, its resources, its emotions on
nineteenth-century national problems?
No, it can't; but then the true reach into space is beyond the capacity of any one nation in any case. It is a
global project, and it should be encouraged as such and used to stimulate world cooperation.
If the peoples of the world recognize the great crisis of survival that faces them and further recognize the
importance of building a space-oriented economy and society—of getting energy from space for all
nations, for instance—then they may well be anxious to work together for it. Each nation, in fact, may fear being
left out, may fear being unable to lay claim to its fair share of the benefits to be expected from space.
The United States and the Soviet Union, with the major space experience and the major capacities in this
direction, should encourage cooperation between themselves and participation of all other nations, in
however minor a capacity.
Around this, there may be built the framework of a world combination that will gradually develop into a
federal government for dealing with world problems. Individual nations can continue to deal with their
own special problems in their own special way. Indeed, if the world combines on the major problems,
there will be no harm if the various nations break up into smaller units. It won't matter how many "nations"
there are, how many newly independent Quebecs, Brittanies, Scotlands—if there is only one world
government.
A world government cannot be accomplished in the 1980s, but a beginning must be made. If, in the
1980s, the nations of the world do not decide that cooperation for survival is an absolute requirement,
then thereafter it may well be too late. We will not have time to overtake catastrophe.
Can all this be done, however, if population continues to increase?
No, it can't; but there are signs of a growing understanding of the problem. In more and more regions of
the world, the birth rate is dropping. Sometimes it only requires the release of social pressure in favor of
children. If the feeling grows that there is no moral disgrace in having few children or even no children,
then the birth rate might drop at once. Allow women greater freedom to participate in the great work of
the world, and the birth rate will drop. Adjust the tax pattern appropriately, and the birth rate will drop.
Since the birth rate has been dropping since the late 1970s, we can hope that the pattern will continue in
the 1980s—everywhere.
We will not bring a halt to population increase in the 1980s, because it is hard to move great masses, but
a beginning must be made. If, in the 1980s, the world does not decide that a great priority must be given
the lowering of the birth rate by every humane measure possible, it may be too late thereafter. We will
not have time to overtake catastrophe.
And, of course, if we place limits on population, the time will come when we can move more and more
people out into space settlements—and then, out in space at least, population can grow again for a time.
Then, too, on the side of survival is the continuing development of science and technology—methods forincreasing food output, for safer contraception, for more efficient energy use, for better communications.
Most of all we have the developing computer, growing ever more complex and versatile and capable of
answering more and more difficult questions.
Problems that seem insoluble now may become soluble with properly programmed properly complex
computers.
Well, then, which decision will the world make in the 1980s? How can one predict? It depends on the
balance between the rational and the irrational, on the battle between the need to take a new path and the
fear of leaving the old one, on whether there will be the imagination and vision that will leave the old
quarrels behind, or the ingrained hatred that makes one content to die provided one has one's revenge.
I hope we will be rational, that we will change to the new, that we will have the vision to leave the old
behind—but I cannot be sure we will.
At any rate, by the end of the 1980s, I feel that we will know what the decision has been.