this is just summarizing the current earnings season trends:

see below for prior research posts:

- https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1v0h9m8/0dte_spx_greek_behavior_mkt_research_snapshot_pt6/

- https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1uoh494/theta_decay_measured_on_19_years_of_real_spy/

- https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1u4dgcz/0dte_spx_iron_condor_study

- https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1u63m6i/spx_iron_fly_research_results/

- https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1u63zqw/qqq_short_downside_puts_research/

- https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1u6s42a/research_offer_pt4/

I thought I found some chump willing to buy an OTM put on Lucid Motors for a massive premium.

However after buying, I realize it says it’s an ‘adjusted’ strike.

Fidelity says my max profit is my premium, my max loss is $90. That makes sense. If the stock goes to $0 I lose $90 because I have to buy the shares. For $5.50 each, but I sold the put for $4.60 each so I only lose $90.

What doesn’t make sense is my ‘break even’ is listed at $9/share.

They did a 10-1 reverse split. So…is my 5.5 put being treated as a $55 put? Or a 0.55 put? I’m very confused what is going to determine if this goes ‘assigned’ or not. I thought the only way I could lose money on this was if Lucid dropped to less than $1 in the next month. Fidelity says my odds of profit are 15%.

For day trading, what tools do you use to determine (guess) the high and the low on an index (NDX, to be specific but would settle for SPX).

Im familiar (not an expert) with Gamma related levels (GEX) but what else can you use? I don't know TA or things like order flow and such so there may be something there. Anything else? Im specifically talking about intraday levels for 0dte trading.

A few weeks ago, the obvious concern was that SPCX options open with insane IV because. Everyone wanted leverage on the SpaceX story. Now the setup is different. My friend ans I still not sure buying premium is the clean trade.

SPCX has gone from post-IPO euphoria to a reality check. It ran hard after listing, then go below the $135 IPO price and recently closed around $120 after a long streak.

Depending on where you mark the high, the stock is down something like 40%+ from the peak.

So now the temptation has flipped.

Instead of “buy calls because SpaceX is the future,” a lot of people are probably looking at puts because the chart looks broken.

Lockup/insider-selling risk is coming, and the next few catalysts could get messy. Q2 earnings, Starship launch timing, short interest, sentiment around AI/space names, there are a lot of things for options to price. That’s exactly why I’m still cautious.

You can be right on direction and still lose if the option already priced in the panic. You can buy puts after a huge move down and get IV crushed if the stock just stabilizes. You can buy calls on a bounce and still get chopped if the spread and volatility are ugly. My cusin makes my mind clear about that.

does a launch milestone hit or does the valuation hold, does sentiment recover after the post-IPO drop? That feels more useful to me than forcing a call/put trade just because the stock finally got interesting.

Anyone else watching SPCX options after the selloff, or are you actually trading them here?

i am not pushing this stock. just need an opinion. I ran across PTRN doing scans. the fundamentals look good. the sector looks good. makes a lot of cash. Stock price healthy. but there is no action when it comes to Call/Puts. i am also watching the earnings coming up. i want to buy a Call, but i am waiting for a retracement. i am using the Fibs and RSI to determine when to get in. the big problem is open interest. why is no one interested in PTRN options? i trade long term and want a Mar 2027 call but might have to settle with a Dec2026 call. i am a cash only account and not authorized for spreads.

Hey everyone! I do my best to tie you guys into conversations with true industry experts as much as possible. I have a conversation coming up tomorrow with Euan (he and I have met around a dozen times, so have an established relationship - noting for your context on the kinds of things you may want to see discussed).

If there's anything you'd like me to tie in, please drop below. Note - I cannot promise to integrate everything and will focus on topics that fit the discussion broadly.

As I mentioned last week, I believe the SPCX event that was scheduled right before Opex and then canceled at the last second was by design. Until I see a full transparent audit of what happened, I'll keep my conspiracy hat on. If you follow the options flow like I do, it doesn't seem that far-fetched. There was heavy put positioning at the 135 and 125 strikes, and price conveniently flushed below both.

SPCX has over 7 billion outstanding shares, but the tradable float is very small because so many shares are locked up. Despite that, options trade with huge volume. Between the low float and heavy algo activity, the stock is much easier to push around.

Canceling the launch last Thursday flushed the stock below the 135 IPO price and encouraged more bears and shorts to pile in. Earnings are on Aug. 6, and two days later the first batch of locked-up shares becomes eligible for selling. My guess is they'll successfully launch before that Aug. 6 to Aug. 8 window. A successful launch, combined with the news, could drive a sharp rally and squeeze shorts. Elon can easily add more fuel during the earnings call by talking about SpaceX's future, creating another frenzy.

If that happens, we'll sell covered calls on our shares and collect the inflated premiums. I will likely use little bit of those premiums to buy puts because next selling wave can take the price below 100. As I said when we bought the dip, I'm not bullish or bearish on SPCX. I simply think it's a stock where we can eventually own shares at a zero cost basis and continue to generate income later.

I was tempted to buy calls this morning when SPCX opened around 120, but I held off. The next Space X launch window is schedule for July 23. With the FOMC, BOJ, and the key dates I discussed in my Q3 correction articles, stock market is going to be very volatile. There's a chance they cancel launch again and push it closer to earnings week--this could trap even more shorts. By the time I finished writing this, the stock had already rallied into the upper 120s and call premiums had jumped.

If they cancel again this week, I'll probably buy some out of the money calls in addition to the shares we already own. If it keeps running instead, we'll wait for the excitement to peak and sell covered calls. I could be completely wrong, but I traded Tesla in its early days and I've seen how Elon has used bears and shorts to his advantage link here.

Just started working with a jade lizard and sort of see it as the CSP with a "nice to have" BCS on top. However, is there any sort of rule of thumb about legging out of them if say the BCS is at 50% profit, rather than holding out for the whole thing to hit 50% (which may never happen)?

I am looking to understand what the maximum $ amounts people have been able to do when scalping option contracts. I am not looking to do scalping, but knowing how much you could expect to reasonably buy and sell of the same contract is helpful.

Could one reasonably be able to purchase $1 million of the same MSFT contract and then sell it for a 40% gain shortly after? For less liquid names, what is their maximum?

Then hypothetically speaking, let’s say someone where to be a super degenerate and have a lucky streak. If they did a $1 million dollar scalping strategy on googl options every single day and each day made profit a 50% at what point would market makers notice? If $1 million is too small then what amount wouldn’t be?

For a very illiquid name. A non meme random company with a $2 billion market cap. Would you be able to d$10k? About $50k?

And no i am not planning on doing a scalping strategy. I am more interested in how much money you could expect to buy and sell in options before you started facing limits. Want to know how that looks

Say its wednesday and I have a covered call sold that expires this week friday. Its currently solidly ITM and nearly no chance it doesn't get exercised.

Im struggling to see the reason why not not to roll it out a week or two with the same strike for a net of more premium. It's going to be exercised anyways, so why not let it ride, gather more premium and have it be exercised in a couple weeks rather than this week? What am I missing here?

Looking for clarity on selling options regarding different S&P related assets (particularly in the lens of Portfolio Margin) . So far, I have identified the following:

- SPY
- Good liquidity
- American style
- NOT 1256 tax advantaged

- SPX
- Higher notional value (10x of SPY), thus higher BP
- Good liquidity
- European style
- 1256 tax advantaged

- XSP
- Same notional as SPY (more or less I think there is some tracking error?)
- Not as good liquidity (compared to SPY or SPX)
- European style
- 1256 tax advantaged

- /ES futures
- SPAN system
- Good-ish liquidity?
- 1256 tax advantaged
- Euro vs American?
- Term structure implications?

Seems like XSP or SPY is preferred for smaller accounts (depending if tax or liquidity is preferred? Probably strategy dependent as well…). Once an account is big enough, then SPX or /ES?

Edit: After some more research, I believe the following to be true as well

- SPX / SPY / XSP
- OCC TIMS is “linearly” scaling in the event of blown out strikes (e.g. big crash on a CSP)
- More predictable tail risk monitoring
- Standard market hours
- Not necessarily less prone to margin calls, but definitely more avoidable due to calculations?

- /ES
- SPAN is exponentially scaling in the event of a blown out strike
- Less predictable calculations for tail risk monitoring
- Better capital efficiency (compared to above)?
- 23/5 hours of operation (can adjust during Asian and Euro sessions)
- Margin call risk is higher (due to sudden macro events and/or exponential scaling mentioned above)

Hello, I've been running the wheel for some time and have learned a lot, but I have some questions I'm not able to work out myself. Also, although I know certain rules of this strategy, it's difficult for me to implement them… so I probably need a nudge from you guys:

1. It's recommended to sell CCs at your breakeven strike (assigned price less the premium received from selling the CSP). But since you usually sell CCs weekly and CSPs at ~45 DTE, this can mean that premium earned over a much longer period (the CSP) gets wiped out by premium earned for a single week. For example, today I sold 145 calls on SPCX expiring 31 July for USD 224 in premium —145 being my average assigned price. Had I sold at my breakeven (140), I could have collected a higher premium (USD 330, so USD 100 more), but in case of assignment I would lose the collected CSP premium of USD 530. I understand that if I'm not assigned, selling CCs for more premium lets me compound — but it still feels tricky to me.
2. It's recommended to close CSPs at 50–60% profit, and I struggle with this. And because of it, my assignment rate is higher than I'd like... But my (probably flawed) thinking is that in such cases the position is already so safe that harvesting the rest (up to 80–85%) is much safer than opening a new position at a higher initial delta.
3. How do you deal with the earnings period? Do you choose weekly expiries to step out of earnings, trade ETFs instead, etc.?
4. When selling CSPs on individual names, how do you deal with the recent low-correlation environment?
5. What is considered a good assignment rate?
6. How do you deal with bias? You're supposed to wheel stocks you'd be happy to hold, but I find myself doing worse with stocks I genuinely like than with stocks I don't like but chose them based objective metrics.

We all know the theory: options lose value every calendar day, not just trading days. So from Friday close to Monday open, you’ve got roughly 2–3 days of Theta decay baked in, even though the market is closed.

But in practice, I’m curious:

• Do you genuinely notice weekend decay in your P&L, or does it feel more like “noise” compared to other moves (gap ups/downs, IV changes, news)?
• Do you adjust your strategies around weekends at all? For example:
  • Avoiding holding long options over the weekend
  • Buying earlier in the week instead of on Friday
  • Preferring spreads or shorter-dated contracts to reduce the impact
  • Or just ignoring it and focusing on directional risk

Also, for anyone who’s looked at this more closely: do you feel the decay comes mostly on Friday (as the market prices in the weekend), or do you see a clear gap effect on Monday morning when things reopen?

I’m not pushing any view here, just trying to gauge how much this actually matters in real trading versus textbook models. If you’ve got data, screenshots, or even just strong personal experience, I’d love to hear it.

Been trading options for about 4 years on and off. My main issue is that I will get up 20-50% or more, and I don’t sell because I believe in my conviction, then I slowly (or quickly) get melted. I just did the math for if I would just get out at a 20% profit every trade, and I guess I didn’t realize that I could be really good at this if I just de-risk. Being completely honest, it’s rare that my trades don’t get to +20% at some point within the trade. This seems easy enough right? I’ve been doing this for 4 days now and I have made a good amount of money. I guess I’ll start doing this all the time lol. People always say the best way to consistently make money in options is to not treat it like a casino, but I think I just realized just how big a 20% profit can be if compounded. I will update when all my money is gone. 😁

If I’m selling covered calls of a stock I’m happy to own (key part, happy to own more of) and selling OTM calls is my upside really limited? As the stock price approaches the strike price, wouldn’t setting a buy limit order at the same price essentially cancel it out? I know I’m going to get called away and make 100x the strike price which will exactly cover the cost of buying 100x of the stock?

I see the risk of higher downside which is really just equal to the risk of holding more of the underlying but with a higher cost basis (stock goes up and I buy in maybe more than I otherwise would have and then goes down before I’m called away so I don’t get that $)

What do y’all think? Am I missing something?

Alright gonna be a kinda long post.
Been trading for a little over 5 years. So i have ‘some’ skin in the game.
What led me here, is i finally hit an all time loss im finally not okay with. -15k all time.

Quick background on me. I’m currently 32 years old. I’m in recovery from drugs & alcohol since 6-10-16. Worked the same full time gas station job this whole time since Covid. Live with my dad rent free. Car repoed last year. I’ll touch on all this below. I only make 30k a year. So yeah, -15k isn’t a lot to most, but for someone living borderline poverty, pulling only 500 a week; it can be life changing money.

My boy put me on ‘options’ right after the GME squeeze. I’m not exactly sure if he hit on GME or just showed me. But i know he showed me some winning trades and i wanted to get put on. And of course i was instantly hooked like everyone else. I started in Feb 2021. So i was there and part of the AMC squeeze. I should have learned paper trading or trading shares as always recommended, but my hard headed ass went straight to the sharks.

My strategy:
Super far OTM 0dte. I had no strategy. They’ve always said it takes money to make money, and i always hated that saying. I tried to disprove everybody and thought i could truly make it out of the trenches by buying 1-2% OTM 0dte everyday. And compound from there. I turned 100 to 1k 3 times and of course lost it all miserably every time. Obviously here and there i would have my winners and bangers. But it clearly wasn’t sustainable. As the years went by, it progressed (as any addiction, duh. I should know, living it first hand with drugs & alcohol) I know the Greeks. I know delta and theta and gamma. I’d literally trade with 50$ or less. At least in recent years. Buying contracts for .10 to .20 a piece. Equating to literally 1-2% OTM. I know i didn’t need my strikes to hit by 4pm. I learned breakeven a long time ago. That was never my intention bc i knew my strikes would never hit. My strategy was just get a volatility spike in either direction and sell. Sometimes i would, other times id be up huge, and lose it all due to greed.

I break every rule, but it’s easy to by playing that little amount. I ruined my life because I’d deposit all of my money, (PLAY WITH WHAT YOU CANT AFFORD TO LOSE) I’d literally play with money i couldn’t afford to lose. I pay my small obligations first. Phone bill, money to my kid’s mom, tiny bit to pay my mom back. And gamble the rest. For 5 years straight. Lived with my dad this whole time so I’m grateful i never had to pay rent. My first and only loan on a car got repoed last summer because i was so bad. I got it in late 2023- paid 2 years straight with no missed payments. And got repoed May 2025. I’ve had to take the bus for 4 months after last year to work. And same with this year since April. I had a beater car that lasted me thru the winter (thank god) but died in April. And haven’t had money to get a new one right away, obviously. The repo destroyed my credit. So I’m forced to buy used cheap shitboxes for now until i can get my credit back up. I’m finally getting another used car this week I’ve been saving 3k for since April. I shoulda had it probably a month ago as I’ve lost 1k in the last 3 months. But i finally made it.

So enough there. I know how to trade the right way, i just never had the capital for it. I don’t have a TA problem. I have a ‘small’ capital problem. More often than not, i truly get the direction correct. I just still lose as my contract is so small, it either doesn’t gain at all, or sometimes it barely gains, then goes to zero fast. Completely unsustainable.

NEW PLAN:
Get all my real life obligations in check first before i come back. Putting this car on the road I’ve saved for since April. Then I need to pay my mom off the 1k I’ve owed her since beginning 2025. (Technically was around 2k back then, but saving and working the right way coulda had her paid off in months instead of almost 2 years). And focus on getting an apartment with my girlfriend.
Then, only then, will i be able to return. But not the same way I’ve always known.
My plan is to do it the right way this time, something I’ve never done before. I’ve been recommend by several others to save up a 500$-1k balance, and trade ATM options WITH time on them. At least a few days out, a week out or more. My plan is to take 50-100% , much smaller percentage gains than I’m used to. I understand aiming for 1,000% 0dte bangers is unrealistic. I don’t want that anymore. I want to be that guy who scalps the first 30 min to an hour or whatever it is. And go on with my day. Not watching every tick from 9:30-4. Even overnight markets.
With a much bigger position value, and taking a much more realistic gain. I want to make the ‘banger’ money I’ve made in the past , but not on a crazy percentage . It will be a normal percentage because I’ll finally be using a proper, realistic amount of capital.

So yeah. This came out a little different than i expected. But i needed to get it off my chest somewhere. This will be the first time in 5 years im stepping away from the charts for a substantial amount of time. I need to get myself out of the hole I’ve been in. I’ve been so broke for 5 years im so over it. So for those of you who read this far, or can even relate. Thank you. I’ll attach photos of my 2 best gains and my all time loss. I’m open to any discussions, feedback, advice- whatever it is. If you’re struggling too, I’m hear to talk.

Do you guys track 3rd Friday primarily for underlying signal or do you track like expiries out to a certain date? Is the signal going to be similar? I basically have to choose between looking at closest 3rd Friday or a cluster of near term expiries as a rule for contract ingestion into a database.

Everyone is underestimating the upcoming oil shock. The situation with Iran will not subside, it will continue to escalate. oil is going much much higher.

The Escalation Trap

Robert Pape calls this the "escalation trap." A dominant power hits a weaker one with limited force, wins the battles, but never gets the political result it wanted, so it assumes it just needs to hit harder, and escalates. The catch: Iran survived, and surviving a joint US–Israeli assault left it stronger, not weaker. There's no military fix, airpower can't force Iran to surrender the leverage it just gained. Why? because Iran's rising power keeps driving up the price of any deal. Both sides have every reason to keep fighting. That's the trap, and it's why this doesn't subside, and why oil's risk premium only builds from here.

So why didn't oil already blow past $120?

One reason: China. yes, China.

China's crude imports collapsed from ~11.4M barrels/day before the war to ~6.4M by early summer, nearly cut in half. But its economy barely flinched.

China has quietly built up an astronomical strategic petroleum reserve, estimated by satellite imagery to be at least 1.4 billion barrels (Note: this is more then every other global petroleum reserve combined). This stockpile was so massive they could survive for over a year without importing oil. To build this reserve in secret, China capitalized on US sanctions against two major oil producers: Russia and Iran. Using "dark fleet" tankers and independent domestic refineries, China bought this sanctioned oil at a steep discount and then released it when oil spiked.

China has been drawing down roughly 40 million barrels a month, with stocks down toward 1.2 billion barrels and falling.

And China will not run this reserve to down much more, because it was never about oil prices. 80% of China's crude flows through the Strait of Malacca, a chokepoint the US Navy could blockade in any fight over Taiwan. This reserve is Beijing's insurance policy against exactly that scenario. They will defend the floor.

The Play: OXY $55 Jan 15th 2027 Call

If the escalation trap is real and China defends the floor, you don't want to be long crude. you want to be long the equity with the most torque to it. That's OXY: near-pure upstream, no refining segment to dampen the swing, so its earnings move almost 1:1 with the oil price. When crude rips, OXY rips harder.

The contract:

• OXY $55 call, expiring Jan 15, 2027 (~180 days out — enough runway for the risk premium to play out without near-term theta killing you)

• Underlying: $55.21

• Ask: ~$6.05 (mid $5.88) → ~$605 per contract

• Delta: 0.57 · IV: ~36% (elevated — it's pricing the geopolitical premium)

• Break-even at expiry: $61.05 (+10.6% on the stock)

My Target: $70 by December.

Gain: +172%

Thoughts?

Edit: grammar

Edit 2: For the people asking, not affiliated, the platform is Thesis.

Has anyone used all 3 platforms for options and what do you think is the best? I've heard RH has bad fills especially for mid, but I haven't really thoroughly tested it to see that and was curious if anyone actually thinks Schwab and Fidelity will have better mid fills than RH. Please rank them best to worst for options accounting for platform, fees, fills, etc.

The market is usually open from 9:30AM to 4PM, (with the exception days that closes early); and that is 6.5 hours, there are 60 minutes in an hour. Hence 390 Rule.

Coherent's the name in the AI trade nobody outside the industry has heard of, but it's basically the connective tissue holding the whole optical layer together. They make optical transceivers, the parts that convert electrical signals into light and back so data can move fast between GPUs and switches inside AI data centers. The bigger the clusters get, the more of this stuff is needed, and Coherent's one of the main suppliers.

NVIDIA took a $2B equity stake in Coherent and signed a multi-year supply deal on top of it, so NVIDIA's now both a customer and a shareholder here. That's not a small signal, that's NVIDIA locking down guaranteed access to manufacturing capacity because they clearly don't want to risk a shortage.

Numbers back it up. On the Q3 call management said AI data center demand has filled optical transceiver capacity through at least 2028, some contracts running to 2030. Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue was $1.81B, up 21% YoY, Datacenter and Communications making up 75% of sales. Non-GAAP EPS up 55% to $1.41. Q4 guide came in at $1.91-2.05B revenue, EPS $1.52-1.72, both above consensus. They're doubling indium phosphide capacity by end of this quarter and more than quadrupling it by end of 2027, funded directly off the NVIDIA deal and the backlog it locked in.

Stock's up over 300% in the past year, trading near 52-week highs around $440. Jefferies and Rosenblatt both raised targets after Q3, Rosenblatt bumped its FY27 revenue forecast by roughly $1B on stronger transceiver and optical switch demand than they'd modeled.

I keep going back and forth on how much of this is already in the price versus how much room is actually left. A lot of the future demand feels priced in already, and they still have to execute a rapid capacity buildout without a yield stumble or supply chain hiccup, on top of real competition from Lumentum and Applied Optoelectronics.

Genuinely curious what people who've followed this longer than me think. How have their yield ramps gone historically when they've scaled capacity this fast? Is the NVIDIA stake actually a moat here or does that kind of customer concentration cut both ways if the relationship ever sours? And is anyone actually in Coherent at these levels, or waiting for a pullback before touching it?

Since the removal of the pdt rule I’ve been scalping options hard and have been very successful at it. Now Robinhood issued me a warning that if my daily average in a month exceeds 390 trades my account will be restricted from options. I average about 500 a day. I absolutely love Robinhoods layout it’s always been so simple buying and selling options super fast but I guess it’s time to find something new. What apps do you guys recommend for fast trades and simple layouts ? ( I use Webull for charts but apparently they don’t support these types of trades either)

News about the blockade came through around 2am my time, when traditional markets were already closed. I wasn’t expecting much immediate follow-through, but Brent reacted pretty quickly once the supply risk started getting priced in.

I opened the position on Canborsa DEX at 78 and it’s around 89 now, so the move has worked out better than I expected. What stood out to me wasn’t just the direction, but how quickly the market repriced once the geopolitical risk became the main story.

Do you prefer to play the initial volatility, wait for confirmation, or avoid the first move entirely and look for follow-through instead?

What does breakeven price in options mean?

I have a leap option currently ITM showing a $100 profit. I bought it when stock around $65. Current price is $67.

Among the other option info displayed it says breakeven price is $85.76.

I always thought this is the price my option will turn profitable but I'm already profitable.

EDIT: Thanks all. Most important takeaway from the comments is i still need to do a lot more learning before trading options. That i intend to do.

Recently graduated from a Reg-T to a PM account. What are some differences, warning, and other advice y’all have when it comes to selling options under this new system? Is it pretty much the same (more leverage but need to watch for Cap Req)?

Some details:
\\- typically I do OTM CSPs on the index (SPY or QQQ, occasionally IWM). Not opposed to moving into other tickers/individual stocks, but not preferable. May get into selling OTM calls too,but haven’t researched/experimented enough yet to pull the trigger.

\\- Recently got into long dated straddle(or strip/strap if bearish/bullish bias) as a backbone, with shorter dated puts and calls being sold. Would adjust the backbone as the market moves, as well as the sold legs depending on market vol & direction. From what I understand, this reduces the Cap Req for PM? I think there’s a YT vid out there describing it. Did it small scale on IWM and worked out well under Reg-T

\\- Considering also selling strangles (which I suppose is like doing a OTM put and OTM call at the same time 🤷🏻‍♂️).

Any other strats, critiques, or other advice for this new environment is welcome. Thanks 🙏