Oil to $50

This is the only reputable source I could find atm, but here's what's showing up in my telegram feed as well

⚡️ UK Maritime Trade Operations: A report was received of an incident 70 nautical miles off Al-Shaqiq, Saudi Arabia.
🔹According to received reports, Saudi Arabia's first oil tanker was hit by a missile 70 kilometers north of the Yemeni border and is on fire.
🔹It is said that the ship's capacity was approximately 500,000 barrels and it had departed from Yanbu.
• 21:19 — UK Maritime Operations Authority: Report of an incident 70 nautical miles from Ash Shuqaiq, Saudi Arabia. (Rasd Akhbar Shehaba)

The Houthis are also saying they have an announcement to make soon regarding a "significant military operation."

EDIT: screenshot of the UKMTO warning that I just found.

https://bsky.app/profile/shipwreck75.bsky.social/post/3mrbb45qjfc22

Edit 2: official statement from ansarullah (houthis)

—❗️🇸🇦/🇾🇪 NEW: Yemen’s Ansarallah announces they targeted two Saudi oil tankers, ‘ENCELIA’ and ‘LAYLA’ with ballistic missiles and drones

In total, they forced more then 10 Saudi oil tankers to turn back since the naval blockade began.

Edit 3: there's footage of the tanker that was hit, on fire

https://reddit.com/link/1v3tnie/video/w62n2htepueh1/player

Most people hear about the conflict with Iran and immediately think about politics, oil markets, or gas prices. However, one of the first American industries to feel the financial impact is trucking.

Diesel is now above $5 per gallon nationally, and earlier this year it reportedly climbed more than 50% from where it stood before the conflict began. Fuel is already one of a trucking company’s largest operating expenses, so an increase of that size can wipe out the profit on a load almost overnight.

This is especially noticeable in auto transport. A car carrier may haul seven to ten vehicles at a time while traveling hundreds or even thousands of miles. When diesel rises, the carrier cannot simply absorb the entire increase. Eventually, higher fuel costs show up in dispatch prices, fuel surcharges, and the amount drivers are willing to accept for certain routes.

The strange part is that customers may not see an immediate, across-the-board price increase. Popular routes with plenty of available vehicles might remain competitive, while rural pickups, long-distance shipments, enclosed transport, and routes requiring significant empty mileage can jump much faster.

Another issue is uncertainty. Oil prices are reacting to airstrikes, ceasefire rumors, tanker attacks, and threats involving the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude recently approached $90 per barrel again as the market weighed renewed fighting against possible negotiations.

That makes it difficult for trucking companies to price loads even a week or two in advance. A quote that works today may no longer cover the carrier’s expenses by the time the truck is dispatched.

From what I’m seeing in auto transport, carriers are becoming more selective. They are paying closer attention to deadhead miles, fuel availability, route density, and whether the return trip is likely to have another paying vehicle. That could mean fewer drivers accepting poorly positioned shipments and longer waits for customers who choose the absolute lowest quote.

This is one of those situations where a conflict thousands of miles away quickly reaches American households—not only at the gas pump, but through groceries, deliveries, freight, and the cost of shipping a vehicle.

For the truckers and brokers here: are fuel surcharges keeping up with your actual costs, or are carriers still being forced to absorb too much of the increase?

Its easy to see with oil gone, Russia on the bench, both the red sea and the hormoooz in jail. China has done the calculation and 7 months from now people and trucks wont be able to drive in the USA, unless they have China EVs. Xi is a genius.

Since oil has broken through the Value Area Low (VAL), there is a good chance it could move up toward the Point of Control (POC), where a large amount of trading volume is concentrated.

However, much depends on how the war develops. Unfortunately, Trump is unpredictable and often changes his statements from day to day.

The Strait of Hormuz is closed, and the Red Sea shipping route has also been disrupted, so only around 0–2 ships are passing through each day.

In addition, U.S. petroleum inventories have fallen to their lowest level since 1983, which could further support higher oil prices.

This sub is far from the average AKSHUALLY IM MORE RIGHTER feel most of Reddit has. Im quite happy that the posts and replies here are more cooperative and have good, healthy discussions void of arrogance and smarter than thou. But most importantly there seems to be a lack of political bullshit.

So, thank you fellow participant for keeping this place bullshit free. Thanks for keeping the discussion sane and realistic in light of the impending doom. Its just nice to be part of a healthy sub where people want to discuss and learn rather than be righter than you.

PS see yall at the Oil Barrons Ball when it hits $.69 a barrel because theres a serious fucking glut coming.

EDIT. Yes. I am serious and not sarcastic. Nor do I think a former TV moron who’s obsessed with girls and hung around other child loving people who shits his britches mid presser while simultaneously trying to hoodwink the population by draining a reserve to artificially suppress oil prices is qualified to do, anything. Really. Kinda sucks our lives are being effected. Im Canadian and all I wanna do is read, play GTA 3 again, keep restoring my GMT800, chill with the wife, and hang with my dogs.

Hey folks,

I’ve been reading this sub for a while and although I do personally agree with the general sentiments, it does appear to be a bit of a “oil is for sure gonna go through the roof” echo chamber here.

So in order to break the echo chamber vibes I wanted to ask - what do you believe the professional oil traders are missing? Oil is high but not THAT high, same with futures. All of you here (generalization) seem to believe that this is a miscalculation and that oil is gonna go way higher.

This means implicitly that you (and myself btw) believe that the professional traders who spend all day every day studying and trading this stuff are wrong, underestimating.

Is this a fair framing? And if so - what do you believe “the market” is missing?

Hope the question makes sense and sparks some interesting discussion. I’ve been asking myself this question last few days and I don’t really have an answer aside from a vague “the oil market must believe that the Iran war/Hormuz instability will end somewhat soon” but to me it seems obvious that this isn’t the case. Is it purely that? Market believes it will end sooner than I believe, therefore that’s the root of the disagreement?

EDIT: most initial comments so far are explaining to me the 10 different ways in which the market is actually correct. Therefore either these commenters are NOT in the group I generalized before thinking price is gonna go up or… maybe I phrased my question poorly. But naturally you can’t think both “the market has way more information than me and I’m uniformed” while also holding any kind of big long/short position on oil because by holding a position you’re saying “no the market doesn’t have all the information and is mispricing this commodity”.

What do y’all think caused this $10 price drop in 20 minutes?

Saudi Arabia's export workaround is being tested at a critical moment. After shifting roughly 3.5 million barrels per day of crude exports through Yanbu since April, the Kingdom has become increasingly dependent on the Bab al-Mandab corridor as transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained. Houthi threats against Saudi-linked shipping are already prompting selective tanker rerouting, increasing voyage uncertainty and raising the risk of logistical bottlenecks. While the immediate risk is not a loss of production, disruptions to shipping could increase transport costs, reshape trade flows and reduce fleet efficiency. If disruption extends beyond maritime traffic to Saudi refining or export infrastructure, the impact on global crude and refined product markets could become significantly more pronounced.

Reading lots of conflicting reports about it being shut, but it doesn't seem like the Huthis have made a move as of yet, do you think its possible for them to bring it to a stand still like the SOH,

The fluctuations in the price of oil - pick one, any one - have not justified the increases on the price at the pump. So obviously, that pump price is not tied to the current price of oil. But, are the current bumps in pump prices indicative of what refiners, blenders, jobbers and retailers think the price will be? Are they thinking that oil prices will end up at a product cost that is some ratio related to a $42.00 increase in the market price of oil?

Something to do with doing imports over night by 50%