I suppose this is only for the early-retired or self-employed, and have the ability to adjust ACA income (i.e., MAGI) at will.

First, you project an income that is below 150% of poverty income (PI), and get a Silver plan - but at least 138% of PI, if in a Medicaid-expansion state, or 100% of PI if in a non-expansion state (oh, the irony that these states get a better deal!). The Silver plan will end up being a special CSM-enhanced plan that has an actuarial payout of 94% (i.e, the Silver-94% plan), rather than the 70% for the normal plan. You will also get an Advance Premium Tax Credit (APTC) that makes the cost of the 2nd Lowest Cost Silver Plan (2LCSP) be 3% of income.

Then, make sure your actual income is below 200% of poverty. This will keep the APTC reconciliation at tax time to the lowest tier (currently, only $395 for an Individual), so your net premium cost (presuming you get the 2LCSP) will be only 3% of poverty + $395, or about $875 (for an Individual). If you exceed this, the reconciliation gets much more painful.

Something else that needs to be considered is that you can only get the APTC at your projected income if the "data matching" shows your income as within a certain amount, the greater of $12K or 50% of data-matched income. For folks without a steady paycheck (or a steady pension/SS), the data-match will be the latest tax filing, which is for the tax year 2 years before the coverage year. If income for every year is shown as always being less than 200% of PI, then projecting an income of 138%, or even 100%, of PI will be within this guideline, and the system will award the APTC for that income, and using the Silver-94% plan.

However, if the projected income is out of this envelope, than there will be no APTC, and the Silver plan will be the Silver-70%. And if you don't have a steady income, you will not be able to prove a lower income, and you will be in a world of sheet; yes, you could reconcile to get an APTC refund (of course, you would actually need to have that lower income to get that refund), but you will not be able to undo having that 70% plan instead of the 94% plan.

This is the way the game is played: play well, and you win - play poorly, and you lose.

I've had a few people message me about 2027 ACA regulatory updates and thought folks planning for the ACA might want to see these now rather than in another month or two when the press usually starts talking about them more. The first table below shows the amount (expressed as a percentage of MAGI) that a household will be expected to pay in premiums annually for the benchmark Silver plan in their local ACA market. The second shows the regulated caps on MaxOOP (and deductible) for ACA plans, though these are the maximum caps and actual plans may and often do have lower actual MaxOOPs. The final link is a clean PDF listing of the applicable FPL levels for 2027 ACA coverage.

Terms for those that are unfamiliar:

• MAGI - Modified Adjusted Gross Income, a particular version of adjusted gross income used by the ACA.
• EPC - Expected Premium Contribution, the amount customers are expected to pay annually for the Silver benchmark ACA plan in their market. Subsidy premiums are calculated as the market price of the benchmark plan minus EPC.
• FPL - Federal Poverty Level, a measure used by the federal government as a determinant in many policy systems.
• MaxOOP - Maximum Out of Pocket, the most a customer can be asked to pay for in-network covered benefits by an insurer in a given year.
• CSR - Cost Sharing Reductions, the second subsidy system within the ACA that reduces out of pocket expenses like deductibles, copays/coinsurance, and MaxOOP.
• AI/AN - American Indian / Alaskan Native
• AV - Actuarial Value, the percentage of total average costs for covered medical benefits that a health insurance plan is expected to cover for a standard population. For example, if a plan has an 80% AV, the insurer pays 80% of average expenses, and customers pay 20% through deductibles, copays, and coinsurance.

Expected Premium Contribution (Coverage Year 2027)

Source:

https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/rp-26-26.pdf

Out-Of-Pocket Maximum (Coverage Year 2027)

*CMS is trialing an option for insurers in 2027 to offer Bronze variants that are allowed to exceed the federal OOP limits by 30% in order to provide a wider array of premium options for customers. Such policies may only be offered by an insurer that also offers a normal standard Bronze. States are allowed to prohibit the availability of high OOP variant policies at their discretion.

Sources:

https://www.cms.gov/files/document/2027-papi-parameters-guidance-2026-01-29.pdf

https://www.cms.gov/files/document/cms-9883-f-patient-protection.pdf

Bonus: Here is a PDF from HHS showing the applicable FPL dollar amounts for various family sizes for 2027 ACA coverage - https://aspe.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/documents/b1bfa16b20ae9b89d525bc35de7c1643/detailed-guidelines-2026.pdf