Worth laying out the uranium supply and demand picture for anyone who hasn't been following it closely.
On the demand side the outlook has shifted materially over the last three years. Governments that were winding down nuclear capacity have reversed course. Japan has restarted a significant portion of its idled reactor fleet. South Korea walked back its phase-out policy. The UK has committed to new builds. The US is extending operating licenses and seeing serious private investment in next generation reactor designs, partly driven by electricity demand from AI infrastructure.
The World Nuclear Association projects meaningful growth in the global reactor fleet through 2040. Each reactor requires a long term uranium supply contract, and utilities have historically been slow to contract until they feel supply pressure.
On the supply side the situation is more constrained. Kazakhstan through Kazatomprom remains the dominant global producer but western utilities have been actively trying to reduce that concentration risk since 2022. Canadian production from Cigar Lake and McArthur River is significant but not enough to fill the gap on its own. New mine development timelines are long, typically a decade or more from discovery to first production.
The contracting cycle for uranium tends to be lumpy. When utilities move they move together, and the spot market can reprice quickly. The structural imbalance between where demand is heading and where supply can realistically come from in the next five years is the core of the uranium thesis.