The Houthi rebels in Yemen are supported by Iran. Together, they’ve begun to threaten trade on the Red Sea (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-tells-houthis-close-red-sea-gateway-if-us-hits-power-network-sources-say-2026-07-16/).

If they make true on their threat, they’d stop what, by some estimates, would be at least 15% of global trade. When you consider the cuts seen already by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it’ll be even higher.

The U.S. will underestimate the abilities of the Houthis, and will think a land invasion of that area will be low-risk, hence they’re more likely to invade Yemen instead of Iran.

Of course, they’ll pay the price for the hubris, but that’s par for the course.

Date will depend on whether the Houthis close the Bab el Mandeb Strait or not. Evidence is the track record of the U.S. and the public opinion (and probably the opinion of the Trump administraiton) that Yemen is “simply another shithole”.

It'll be worse than COVID, the 2008 financial crisis and even the great depression of 1929.

Date: by June 1, 2027

Evidence:

• The US has ~50 days of oil reserves left. The reason we haven't seen the worst effects of the war yet is because of the oil reserves.
• Neither the US, nor Iran want negotiations. The US administration admitted to doing negotiations only to restock the weapons and ammo, and Iran admitted to only doing negotiations to prevent being seen as undiplomatic.
• This conflict is quickly spreading outside of the Strait of Hormuz. For example: Yemeni Houthis just announced maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea. Iran is blocking any and all attempts to make the Strait of Hormuz irrelevant.
• The US has no ability to win, even if it nukes Iran. The Iranian chain of command is hidden, their army facilities are located underground and deep inside protected mountain tunnel complexes. Geographically, Iran is a mountain fortress, so the ground invasion will be catastrophic for the US.
• Oil is the blood of the economy, and this blood supply will sharply drop within a few months, and it will continue to drop as the conflict expands into more areas. If there's oil shortages, the food prices go up, consumer goods prices will rise, all to the point where even the basics will be unaffordable for a bigger and bigger portion of the population. Poverty will rise, homelessness will rise, quality of life will drop, and things will only keep getting worse.
• Trump will not back down, because he would never be able to admit defeat; and the media - pro-war, anti-war, mainstream and independent media - will definitely present it as defeat that it is. Also he wouldn't be able to do market manipulation if he withdraws. And even if he withdraws or democrats do something to limit the war, the war between Iran and US allied nations in the Middle East will continue because for Iran the threat is now existential.

Even if the US withdraws, the economic collapse will be greatest we've ever seen, and if it doesn't withdraw, it'll be apocalyptic.

What other choice does he have unless he wants to literally wave the white flag and admit total defeat? Gas prices as climbing again and will likely skyrocket to untenable levels by late summer. He has zero, and I mean ZERO bargaining leverage against them as a quick end to the war is 100x more important to him than it is to Iran. 2 troops were killed this weekend and another is missing. He’s going to need to do something drastic to show what a macho man he is, and dropping missiles on elementary schools only goes so far with his base. Unless he stages a successful coup, his lackeys are going to get annihilated at the polls in November. He’s boxed in every way he turns, and he’s not going to admit defeat, so I expect a full ground invasion to be announced in the next 100 days. Make no mistake. His ego is worth the lives of thousands of American service members.

Date: by the midterms

Evidence: there is no other option besides that or accepting total defeat and withdrawing with his tail between his legs. And we know a malignant narcissist isn’t choosing the second option.

date: by the end of the decade

evidence: various socialists have been getting elected to public office as of late and more people are supporting socialism.

I think the Steve Rogers moment in the Doomsday trailer is a misdirect. Thor knows very well how time and space works...and Steve was alive...but his brother is not...not in that universe. I believe there is substantial evidence.

That was Loki receiving Mjolnir from Thor! He is worthy!

We will see on the date of launch 😉

Of course, by using nukes, the Israelis will be admitting they have a nuclear arsenal. But the Far Right Israelis who control the government will say "everybody hates us anyway...why not use nukes?"

The evidence is clear: the Israelis don't care about world opinion. If by the date of Israel's elections, the war isn't over, the Israelis will use nukes against Iran.

The evidence is clear: Trump is incapable of admitting his war is a failure. By the date of the election, the war will still be going on. Once the Democrats take office they will end Trump's Folly.

And then every single Republican will claim that the war with Iran was being won until the Democrats ended it. And this will be the position of Republicans for the next ten years.

date: after trump dies

evidence: after trump dies, there will be no one to protect melania from deportation. and that's probably what the democrats aim to do.

Evidence: With the proliferation of prediction markets and online gambling, it's only a matter of time before it happens because somebody has "nothing to lose". Absolutely not saying I want to be right and for this to happen, but I am not feeling great about my odds of being wrong.

Date: It will happen by 2031

The AI space is really volatile, and we keep seeing technological improvements under the hood. AI also just keeps getting more capable at every size of model. Most people pay the most attention to the huge models: the biggest and most capable. But there are also the smaller AI models that are feasible to run on consumer hardware: these also keep seeing significant improvements. They’re a lot less capable than the big ones, but they’re improving fast.

It seems to me like a lot of the research on AI is still finding its footing, and that we will keep seeing improvements for a while longer, even if those improvements are mostly in efficiency rather than capability.

Eventually, the technology will reach a plateau, where any real improvements to capability would require a fundamental shift, and there is some early-days work being done there. LLMs are the peak of general-purpose AI currently, though. I think we’re not that far off from reaching the limits of what this technology is capable of.

When we reach that point, then the biggest problem with running an LLM becomes more important: they’re just so darn big and expensive to run. Even the smaller models can push consumer hardware to the limit.

Eventually, the race for capability will turn into a race for efficiency, because more efficiency means higher profit margins. There’s already been work done on more specialized hardware, like Google’s tensor processing units. I think that some companies will eventually bake a specific model into silicon: a chip specifically designed to run *one* specific model, with silicon-level specialization. It’d be an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) for one particular AI model. This could mean companies putting a specific LLM into future consumer hardware, for a hefty price of course. This would mean LLM inference at a much lower energy cost, but a huge amount of flexibility and user control would be lost in the process.

This isn’t a value judgement in favor of or against LLMs or AI in general. There is good being done by AI, but there’s also a lot of harm. But it exists, and we can’t un-exist this technology, even once the bubble pops. It’ll keep existing.

Evidence: Dedicated ASICs are things we’ve seen before. Crypto mining wound up using ASICs when GPUs just weren’t cutting it anymore, and I don’t think AI is any different. This would be possible today, but it doesn’t make any sense with how fast the landscape is changing. By the time a model-specific ASIC could be designed, manufactured, and integrated, there’d be some newer model that’s more capable. That’s why I think we won’t see anything like this until capability plateaus.

Date: The date is really hard to guess, as AI research is still very active. We keep finding better ways to design/train models for capability and efficiency, and none of this dedicated silicon makes any sense until that research slows down a lot. I’d say within the next 10 years, though.

Date: November 2026

Evidence: Trump has again falsely claimed the 2020 election was illegitimate without any evidence at all in 6 years. He has already accused two Georgia legislatures of being falsely elected (the same state where he threatened the governor if he didn't "find" votes for him) and now these claims are going wild with Senator Tubervile accusing 5 senators of being fraudulently elected.

This in combination with his voter suppression bill, his previous attempts to nullify elections, the propaganda calling all of his opposition terrorist and communist, the failing economy, the open corruption, the pointless wars, the fact he's protecting child rapist im violation of federal law, and the Supreme Court granting him absolutely immunity; the writing is on the walls and he will start arresting democratic politicians, activist, and judges to try to distract from his failing administration and to hold onto power

The reason Trump is pushing the idea that the 2020 election was stolen is to blunt the effect of the revelation that Trump stole the 2024 election. The evidence is clear and the date is soon. As soon as the story of how Musk cheated on Trump's behalf is made public Republicans will claim that the Democrats are getting back at Trump for his claims about the 2020 election.

The evidence will be clear and overwhelming that Trump and Musk cheated in the 2024 election - and they will be allowed to get away with it. The Establishment Media will decide nothing good could come from pushing the truth and so will allow the story to die.

with whats recently been said the proof is in the pudding.

Around the date of October third will be go time. I believe strongly that he will invoke full ww2 style camps. Mark my words it will be it a false flag, another assassination attempt or some rouge dem or other political group doing a J6 style event and then martial law will be declared, congress dissolved and the uncooperative ones arrested through a coup style event then every dem, queer and leftist will be arrested and killed.

We've already seen how he reacted to the Kirk situation, we've already seen the increasing rhetoric towards left leaning people

Right now we're already seeing him bend the law, with at least three good examples of him trying to make it so that he can rig this, I'm giving you all three really good pieces of evidence of this being the case. If he's, at this stage where we're still a "democracy" willing to flaunt his power like this, already toying with arresting people for any reason like with the reflecting pool, mark my mf words he's gonna loose it around midterms

Date: before Nov. 7, 2028

Evidence:

• Epstein files implicate the top elite.
• Leftist candidates threaten to imprison all implicated pedophiles.
• If a leftist candidate ever comes to power, they would release all Epstein files (not just the tiny crumbs we got), and the depravity we see would basically make it inevitable that the top elite will be arrested and put in prison.
• Leftist candidates are gaining popularity because of the worsening fascist extremism - and both trends are likely to continue all the way to 2028.
• If a leftist candidate wins the democratic party primary, the elite will have little other options to avoid being prosecuted.

When I say "leftist" I do mean a real leftist, with values around expanding the social safety net, making healthcare free, supporting the poor and the working class, taxing the rich, etc. So people like Ro Khana and AOC are the likeliest targets.

Big assumptions made:

• Primaries are not rigged. They usually are, but this time it might be too big to rig.
• Leftists are allowed to participate in the primaries. Who knows what kind of tricks they can come up with to prevent this.
• Leftist candidate wins the democratic party primary. It seems likely right now, but someone like Gavin Newsom can legitimately win too, in which case it won't happen.
• Trump (or JD, after Trump dies) is not confident he can rig the elections. If he's 100% confident, he won't bother.

I believe people will start to see this in the date of 2226 I know I won't be alive to see it but I know it will happen

My evidence is people are already losing their faith in Christianity and going to atheism, but the thing is what would be the next step, if things kept going worse and worse like they do now, it's only logical to assume we would think god hates us

If you think of it AI is reducing barriers to entry into complicated areas of expertise. Once most entry level coding jobs dry up due to low demand there will come a time that the tech companies will realize they still need some warm bodies to drive the AI. At that time, they will simply outsource to India, the Philippines, Malaysia, etc. There will come a time when programming jobs will be gone, just as manufacturing jobs have. Not because AI replaced them, but because of outsourcing in combination with AI. For most corporate folks the quality of the work does not matter as long as the AI slop meets their minimum requirements. The outsourcing companies are perfect for this. They know how to meet the minimum spec. for the least cost.

My evidence for this is the direction I see at my company and what I hear from others in this field.

Date: I think by 2029 or 2030 at the latest we will see this outcome. This will become a well known and lamented fact just like manufacturing.

date: the late 2020s/early 2030s

evidence: there has been a lot of scrutiny about elderly people running for and holding political office when what we need is young blood.

date 2029

it sounds outrageous (for now) but….

evidence: given the epstein files and how audacious he’s been from just 2 years alone I very much believe that if a Democrat wins the next election, he will protest by creating his own little country by buying an island or a massive plot of land and then inviting all of his rich Trump supporters to come there and maybe even allow poor maga immigrants so he can seem noble. it really seems like he’s not going to go out without a fight given his temperament as well. Also with January 6th and how he encouraged to supporters to go storm the capital over him losing… nothing is that far fetched

Date: before the end of 2026 it will transpire he is dating a woman close to half the age of his now ex-wife Christina P., who just turned 50.

Evidence: Since meeting his now ex-wife, Tom got famous, very rich, and is now in great shape. His dating pool has transformed.

Date:

• Before the end of July

Evidence:

• Trump is very tight with president Milei of Argentina, they seem to get along well together.
• Trump likes these sort of spectacles. It's will increase his popularity in Argentina substantially.

If he "proves" on this date July 16, 2026 that he was elected in 2020 then his subsequent 3rd election in 2024 is evidence that invalidates term limits and he is free to run again 2028.

Core argument: at least one "dead" console (i.e. no longer officially supported by their primary manufacturer) will have been given new life by a wave of indie development centered on that console, as a way of bringing back old-school gaming and physical media and capitalizing on how many old consoles there still are that still work at least somewhat

I've considered this for probably a decade now, but there seems to be enough interest lately that some people want to RETVRN TO TRADITION...al gaming, and yet we have all these consoles right there, ready to develop for.

Homebrews have been a thing for a long time, but they've never really been a big enough phenomenon to revive old consoles. The closest I can think of was when there was something like a dozen new Dreamcast games coming out in 2007 (IIRC). That was neat, but also pre-retro gaming revival, so it flew under the radar except as a quirky joke. Whereas if that happened nowadays, I don't doubt it'd get a lot of press.

Edit: I'm also aware of a pretty steady release of homebrews for the Atari 2600, and I mentioned Brazil and their relationship with the Master System/Genesis down below

Console gaming tradition has long been that once a new console releases, old consoles are no longer viable platforms. Even though there were 155 million+ PS2s sold by 2013, it was seen as a complete faux pas to make a new PS2 game any year after 2006, to the point it's still seen as a joke. "This is a Nintendo 64 game that released in 2004." To a certain generation, you just immediately start laughing on hearing that. But I wonder if, to a younger generation, there'll be a point where that's not at all odd. In fact some young'uns might even start wondering why we thought it was normal to just totally discard an old console just because a later one came out (especially for consoles that lacked backwards compatibility). That sort of technological progression may have been important context at the time, but looking back, it does seem a bit silly.

After all, we've cycled through "2D gaming is obsolete, only 3D games are good" to "low poly 3D is terrible, high-definition 3D is for Real Men™" to "Anything brightly colored is gay, real games use realistic brown and gray and feel miserable and misanthropic" and then "Actually 2D pixel art was great and early 3D is ugly and outdated" and now "Actually low poly 3D was great too"

I've seen plenty of people note that we got 3 GTAs on the PS2 and subsequently 1 GTA across 3 PlayStations, often exalting the atmosphere of those PS2-era GTA games. And I'm just here wondering "Why not get a team together to make a new PS2-style GTA game? Heck, even release a version for the PS2"

Would that be profitable? Hard to say. It's always a crapshoot involving video games.

But, it can't be anywhere near as unprofitable as HD game development.

So to the central point

By 2030 at least, I do think those crazy Zoomers will start busting out homebrew development kits and getting together to make games for "dead" consoles on a scale large enough that it could be said that some of them like the SNES, PS1, OGXbox, GameBoy and Advance and DSes, even rare ones like the 3DO and whatnot are at least semi-"active" and supported again.

(Pure showerthought: imagine if Sega came out of retirement to offer official support for a new wave of Dreamcast homebrews, even if not actually manufacturing new hardware)

(Other showerthought: on the topic of Sega and hardware support long after its heyday, consider Brazil and how they've kept the Master System and Mega Drive alive for literally decades)

Evidence: reaction against Sony phasing out physical media, increased Zoomer/Alpha Genner interest in old-school gaming and aesthetics, Millennial nostalgia, the hundreds of millions of old consoles still out in the wild; homebrew game development already advanced enough to allow for it

Date: roughly 2030

A "global ban" is a ban from editing all Wikimedia Foundation (WMF) wikis declared by staff members, which can not be reversed by the volunteer administrators or by community vote. These aren't given out lightly, but are reserved for the "worst of the worst", usually handed out to the likes of pedophilia promoters (most famously Nathan Larson), and people who cause legal trouble, or at least considerable drama. Wikipedia co-founder Larry Sanger would fall into the third category, and possibly into the second category.

Larry Sanger has been criticizing Wikipedia for decades, especially harshly in recent years. Last month, he was banned from the English-language Wikipedia. After all the drama caused by him, most recently him advocating for requiring high-ranking functionaries to publicly disclose their real names, and stricter regulation of Wikipedia, and removal of Section 230 protections, an impending global ban against him is not far-fetched, though it wouldn't stop his advocacy outside Wikipedia.

Date: Before 2028. Evidence: See above.