The Houthi rebels in Yemen are supported by Iran. Together, they’ve begun to threaten trade on the Red Sea (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-tells-houthis-close-red-sea-gateway-if-us-hits-power-network-sources-say-2026-07-16/).

If they make true on their threat, they’d stop what, by some estimates, would be at least 15% of global trade. When you consider the cuts seen already by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it’ll be even higher.

The U.S. will underestimate the abilities of the Houthis, and will think a land invasion of that area will be low-risk, hence they’re more likely to invade Yemen instead of Iran.

Of course, they’ll pay the price for the hubris, but that’s par for the course.

Date will depend on whether the Houthis close the Bab el Mandeb Strait or not. Evidence is the track record of the U.S. and the public opinion (and probably the opinion of the Trump administraiton) that Yemen is “simply another shithole”.