000
WTNT32 KNHC 220241
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 87.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ENE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay/Gulf County Line in Florida to Morgan City, Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City, Louisiana, to Cameron, Louisiana
* Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 87.7 West. Bertha is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a generally
westward motion is expected Wednesday through Friday. On the
forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf
Coast during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin on Wednesday

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. In the past hour, a wind gust of 41 mph (66 km/h)
was reported in Petit Bois Island, Mississippi.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
observations is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the warning area tonight
through Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area in Louisiana by Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Cameron, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
MS/AL Border to Aucilla River, FL...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1
to 4 inches with isolated higher totals to 6 inches through Thursday
along the central Gulf Coast from western Florida through southern
Louisiana. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding,
especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Bulletin

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022026
400 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...BERTHA CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 88.3W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM ENE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning east of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida to Morgan City, Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City, Louisiana, to Cameron, Louisiana
* Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was 
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 88.3 West. Bertha is 
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion 
is expected to continue through Friday with a little acceleration. 
On the forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern 
Gulf Coast during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Gradual weakening is forecast to continue over the next several 
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) 
from the center. In the past hour, a wind gust of 49 mph (79 km/h) 
was reported at Orange Beach Buoy, located offshore of the Alabama 
coastline. An elevated oil platform located well offshore in the 
Mississippi Canyon recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 
km/h) with a gust up to 56 mph (90 km/h). 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the warning area today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in
Louisiana by tonight.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Cameron, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
MS/AL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 
to 4 inches with isolated higher totals to 6 inches through Thursday 
along the central to the western Gulf Coast from western Florida to 
southern Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding, 
especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Discussion

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022026
400 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Since the previous advisory, Bertha's appearance has gone downhill, 
with the deepest convective activity separating further south from 
the low-level circulation which is now mostly exposed offshore of 
the coast of Alabama. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission in 
completing its last pass through Bertha found peak flight level 
winds of 47 kt, and a minimum central pressure that has risen 
slightly to 998 mb. While a dropsonde launched in the southeast side 
of the circulation did find a 500 m layer mean wind of 54 kt, a 
standard reduction from this layer still yields a slightly reduced 
intensity of 45 kt for this advisory. Given Bertha's current 
appearance, this could be generous. 

A combination of aircraft, radar, and satellite fixes indicate that 
Bertha is moving due west at 270/4 kt. The primary steering feature 
resulting in Bertha's short-term motion is a mid-level ridge that 
has been sliding slowly eastward from the southern Plains to become 
positioned north of the tropical storm. This evolution should result 
in Bertha maintaining a westward heading over the next 24-36 h, 
though continued sheared bursts of deep convection forming south of 
the center may still act to tug it south of this steering motion. 
One thing worth keeping an eye on is the possibility a new center 
may try to reform under these convective bursts in the 24-36 h 
time-frame like what is depicted in some of the hurricane-regional 
models, though this is not reflected in the NHC track forecast at 
this time. The latest track forecast is nearly on top of the 
previous, but just a little faster, roughly in between the latest 
Google DeepMind (GDMI) and HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) 
solutions. 

Bertha's appearance, the presence of 25-30 kt of northeasterly 
vertical wind shear, and land interaction are likely to result in 
slow weakening over the next 24 h or so. After that point, Bertha's 
future likely depends on if the circulation remains along the Gulf 
coast, or if it attempts to reform further south under the 
convective bursts in the northwestern portion of the Gulf. In the 
former scenario, Bertha's circulation could open up into a trough 
like in the 00z ECMWF and HWRF solutions. In the latter case, a new 
center could reform further south and attempt to reorganize like in 
the HAFS and GFS solutions. For what it's worth, the Google DeepMind 
ensemble seems to be roughly split between these two possibilities. 
For now, the NHC intensity forecast does not stray far from the 
previous one, showing slow weakening before Bertha moves fully 
inland over Texas in 48 h, becoming post-tropical and dissipating 
shortly thereafter. This intensity forecast is roughly in the middle 
of the guidance envelope and closest to the GDMI solution. 


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along portions 
of the northern Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to 
southeastern Louisiana, including the Metro New Orleans area, 
through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions 
of the southwestern coast of Louisiana tonight into Thursday.

2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Mississippi and
Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is expected.

3. Interests elsewhere in extreme western Louisiana and along the
Upper Texas Coast should monitor the progress of this system, as
additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of
that area later today. 

4. Isolated areas of flash flooding remain possible through early 
Friday along the central to the western Gulf Coast from western 
Florida to southern Texas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 29.4N  88.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 29.4N  89.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...ON THE COAST
 24H  23/0600Z 29.3N  91.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...ON THE COAST
 36H  23/1800Z 29.3N  93.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  24/0600Z 29.5N  96.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

064
WTNT32 KNHC 221736
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
100 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...CENTER OF BERTHA APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 89.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued east of the
Alabama/Florida border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Morgan City, Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City, Louisiana, to Sargent, Texas
* Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to
36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 89.1 West. Bertha is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A westward
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to resume
later today and continue through Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Bertha will move near or along the Louisiana and upper
Texas coasts through Thursday, and then move farther inland into
Texas on Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, but Bertha could maintain tropical storm intensity
through late Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. Dauphin Island, Alabama, recently reported a
sustained wind of 36 mph (58 km/h) and a gust to 41 mph (66 km/h).

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the warning area today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in
Louisiana by tonight and along the upper Texas coast by Thursday or
Thursday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Alabama/Florida border to Port Bolivar, TX...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1
to 4 inches with isolated higher totals of 6 inches through Friday
along the central to western Gulf Coast from Northwest Florida to
southern Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding,
especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

114
WTNT32 KNHC 220535
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
100 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...BERTHA MOVING WESTWARD WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 87.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM WSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay/Gulf County Line in Florida to Morgan City, Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City, Louisiana, to Cameron, Louisiana
* Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located by Air Force Reserve aircraft near latitude 29.3 North,
longitude 87.9 West. Bertha is moving toward the west near 6 mph
(9 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through
Friday. On the forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the
northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to continue over the
next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. In the past hour, a wind gust of 40 mph (64 km/h)
was reported at Panama City Beach, Florida.

The minimum central pressure estimated by Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the warning area
through the day. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area in Louisiana by tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Cameron, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
MS/AL Border to Aucilla River, FL...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1
to 4 inches with isolated higher totals to 6 inches through Thursday
along the central Gulf Coast from western Florida through southern
Louisiana. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding,
especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Bulletin

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022026
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...CENTER OF BERTHA WOBBLING SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA 
THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 88.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida to Morgan City, Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City, Louisiana, to Sargent, Texas
* Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland 
watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local 
National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was 
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 88.6 West. Bertha is moving 
toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A westward  motion with 
an increase in forward speed is expected to resume later today and 
continue through Friday. On the forecast track, the  center of Bertha 
will move near or along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts through 
Thursday, and then move farther inland into Texas on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Bertha 
could maintain tropical storm intensity through late Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and 
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the warning area today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in
Louisiana by tonight and along the upper Texas coast by Thursday 
or Thursday night.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Port Bolivar, TX to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
MS/AL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1
to 4 inches with isolated higher totals of 6 inches through Friday
along the central to western Gulf Coast from Northwest Florida to
southern Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding,
especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Discussion

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022026
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Bertha's satellite presentation has continued to degrade this 
morning, with all of the associated deep convection having been 
pushed well to the southwest of the exposed surface center due to 
strong deep-layer shear. That said, dropsonde data from NOAA and 
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the 
central pressure has changed very little from the previous 
advisory. The NOAA aircraft measured a peak 750-mb flight-level 
wind of 55 kt several hours ago, which equates to an initial 
intensity of 45 kt. More recent aircraft data suggest those winds 
may have decreased, but for now we'll continue to hold 45 kt in 
anticipation of additional aircraft and scatterometer data over the 
next few hours.

Bertha's center has been deviating a bit north of the forecast 
track, and the current motion estimate is now 290/5 kt. Track model 
guidance insists that Bertha should resume a westward motion today, 
but wobbles and deviations like the current one are normal behavior 
for such a highly sheared tropical cyclone. Once a westward motion 
resumes, Bertha's center is likely to straddle the coast of 
Louisiana through Thursday and then reach the upper Texas coast by 
Thursday evening or night. The NHC track forecast lies along the 
northern edge of the guidance suite, partially to account for the 
recent northward jog and partially to closely follow the typically 
reliable HCCA and GDMI guidance.

The expected weakening appears to be on the verge of starting, and 
the main question for the forecast is how quickly will Bertha lose 
intensity. Part of that equation is how much time the center will 
spend over land, while the system also continues to contend with 
strong northeasterly shear. The NHC intensity forecast maintains 
Bertha as a minimal tropical storm through 36 hours (around the 
time of a potential Texas landfall), but it's also possible that 
the cyclone could weaken to a depression or remnant low by that 
time. Like the track forecast, the intensity forecast is largely a 
blend of the latest HCCA and GDMI guidance. A remnant low forecast 
point is shown over Texas at 48 hours for continuity's sake, but 
Bertha could have dissipated by that time.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along portions
of the northern Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to
southeastern Louisiana, including the Metro New Orleans area,
through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions
of the southwestern coast of Louisiana and upper Texas coast 
tonight through late Thursday.

2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Mississippi and
Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is expected.

3. Isolated areas of flash flooding remain possible through Friday 
morning along the central to western Gulf Coast from Northwest 
Florida to southern Texas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 29.8N  88.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 29.6N  90.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  23/1200Z 29.5N  92.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  24/0000Z 29.4N  95.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  24/1200Z 29.0N  98.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
WTNT32 KNHC 212348
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
700 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 87.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay/Gulf County Line in Florida to Morgan City, Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City, Louisiana, to Cameron, Louisiana
* Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 87.4 West. Bertha is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h) and a west-northwestward
or westward motion is expected Wednesday through Friday. On
the forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf
Coast during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight, and gradual
weakening is forecast Wednesday through Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) was recently
reported at Pensacola Beach, Florida.

The minimum central pressure reported by Air Force Reserve and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the warning area tonight
through Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area in Louisiana by Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Cameron, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
MS/AL Border to Aucilla River, FL...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches through
Thursday along the central Gulf Coast from western Florida into
southern Louisiana. This rainfall may produce isolated flash
flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
WTNT32 KNHC 222047
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...CENTER OF BERTHA MOVING WESTWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 89.8W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SW OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward to Cameron,
Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Cameron, Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Cameron, Louisiana, to Sargent, Texas
* Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 89.8 West. Bertha is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster westward
motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track,
the center of Bertha will move near or along the Louisiana and upper
Texas coasts through Thursday, and then move farther inland into
Texas Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so,
and Bertha is forecast to maintain tropical storm intensity up
until it reaches the upper Texas coast on Thursday. Bertha is
expected to dissipate inland over Texas by Thursday night or Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 36 mph (58 km/h) and a gust to
44 mph (71 km/h) were recently reported at New Orleans Lakefront
Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the warning area through
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Thursday or Thursday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Alabama/Florida border to Port Bolivar, TX...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1
to 4 inches with isolated higher totals of 6 inches through Friday
along the central to western Gulf Coast from Northwest Florida to
southern Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding,
especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 22 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane

Fausto, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja

California Peninsula.

1. Eastern and Central East Pacific:

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles off the coast of Central

America continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers

and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected,

and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while

it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining

well offshore of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

1. Well Southwest of Hawaii:

A trough of low pressure located well southwest of the Hawaiian

Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual

development of this system, and a tropical depression could form

over the weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly

westward to west-northwestward. The system is forecast to move into

the western Pacific basin on Sunday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Products issued by the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center can be

found at: www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

Official tropical cyclone forecast information issued by the Japan

Meteorological Agency for the western Pacific basin can be found at:

www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP.htm

Forecaster Cangialosi

453

WTNT62 KNHC 221901

TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Bertha Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026

200 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAKES LANDFALL IN ST. BERNARD PARISH,

LOUISIANA...

Satellite images indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Bertha

has made landfall near the Biloxi Wildlife Management Area in St.

Bernard Parish, Louisiana. The maximum sustained winds are estimated

to be 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION

---------------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.9N 89.4W

ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI

ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Reinhart/Berg