Hi everyone,
I recently received my Big Y-700 results from FamilyTreeDNA. My confirmed terminal haplogroup is R-FT225315, a downstream branch of R-V88. FamilyTreeDNA estimates that R-FT225315 formed around 3100 BCE.
My paternal family is from western Anatolia, and our family tradition identifies us as Yörük/Turkmen, with a historically pastoral or nomadic background. My autosomal GEDmatch results also appear broadly consistent with western Anatolian Turkish populations, with groups such as Aydın Turks appearing among my closest population references.
However, the current Y-DNA distribution around my branch looks quite different. The known modern samples on R-FT225315 and its nearby parent and sister branches appear mainly connected to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt, Palestine, Algeria and other parts of North Africa or the Middle East. I have not yet seen any Turkish, Iranian or Central Asian samples among the most relevant nearby branches.
FamilyTreeDNA’s migration map also places the estimated R-FT225315 ancestor somewhere around the Hejaz or western Arabian Peninsula, near the Medina region, around 3000 BCE. I understand that this is a reconstruction rather than proof that a specific FT225315 individual was excavated there.
I currently have no Big Y matches and approximately 40 private variants below R-FT225315. I have also uploaded my Big Y VCF file to YFull and am waiting for its independent analysis.
I would appreciate informed opinions on the following points:
What historical conclusions can realistically be drawn from the current FTDNA and YFull trees for R-FT225315?
How reliable is the estimated formation date of approximately 3100 BCE, and how large is the likely uncertainty range?
What information does FTDNA use when placing a prehistoric branch geographically? Is the location mainly based on the reported paternal origins of modern testers, the geography of sister branches, ancient DNA, or a combination of these?
How meaningful is the repeated Saudi Arabian, Kuwaiti, Egyptian, Palestinian and North African distribution around the relevant branches when Turkey, Iran and Central Asia are absent?
Could this reflect the actual historical geography of the lineage, or might it largely result from sampling bias, such as higher participation in expensive Y-DNA testing among some Gulf families and very low Big Y participation in Turkey, Iran and Central Asia?
What does a block of roughly 40 private or novel SNPs suggest about the unsampled paternal branches between the R-FT225315 ancestor and me?
Can their approximate order or dates be estimated from a single modern sample, or must intermediate relatives first be discovered?
Is a Big Y VCF generally sufficient for reliable YFull placement, age estimation and evaluation of novel SNPs? What specific additional information could a BAM file provide in this situation?
Are there any currently published modern or ancient DNA samples carrying R-FT225315, R-FT162017, or another branch unusually close to this lineage?
I am not expecting a Y-DNA haplogroup to prove a modern ethnicity. I am mainly trying to understand how much can genuinely be inferred about the historical geography and movement of this single direct paternal line, especially given the very limited and unevenly distributed testing data.
GEDmatch Dodecad K12b results:
Caucasus: 31.93%
Atlantic_Med: 16.30%
Gedrosia: 12.88%
North_European: 12.38%
Southwest_Asian: 10.34%
East_Asian: 8.06%
Siberian: 6.34%
Southeast_Asian: 0.69%
Sub_Saharan: 0.57%
Northwest_African: 0.50%
Based on a comparison with my mother’s DNA results, the Southeast Asian, Sub-Saharan African, and Northwest African components appear to come from my maternal side.