r/ValueInvesting 13m ago

Discussion I basically stopped clicking Google links months ago. Their quarter just explained why that doesn't matter.

Upvotes

Like a lot of people, i've mostly stopped clicking through Google results. i read the AI answer and move on. by the old logic that should be killing their ads business.

then this quarter printed: queries at an all-time high, AI Mode past 1B monthly users, search revenue still up 17% to $63B. revenue beat, cloud grew 82%. and the stock sold off anyway, because the capex guide went up again ($195-205B for the year) and free cash flow went negative for the quarter.

trying to square that, here's where i landed: people like me were never the revenue. i read results and don't click ads. in the old world google made nothing off me, in the AI world it still makes nothing off me. the clicks the AI answers "stole" were mostly free riders. commercial-intent searches, flights, insurance, shopping, those still click, and that's where the money always was. so freeloaders going clickless costs less than it sounds, while the queries that do monetize keep growing.

second thing i keep chewing on: if the future is GEO instead of SEO, everyone optimizing to get recommended by google's AI instead of ranked by its index, the entry point stays google's. same gatekeeper, new door.

and the race framing matters. for OpenAI and Anthropic, winning is existential, they fund the war with fundraising rounds. google funds it with $63B a quarter of ad money. it's the only runner in the race that can afford to lose it.

what i can't settle is the price. north of $4T with negative FCF and a capex guide that keeps climbing is a lot to pay for "they survived the scariest question." two things i'd genuinely like input on: has anyone done a proper sum-of-parts at these levels? and is there any data on what share of google clicks were ever monetizable, or is my freeloader theory just me projecting my own habits?


r/ValueInvesting 1h ago

Question / Help How long are folks holding on to Kenvue ?

Upvotes

I hung in tight after buying Kenvue stocks based on Scott Galloway tip.
I wonder when I might be able to let it go.
I only bought 50 shares (ugh at 20.88).
Thanks!


r/ValueInvesting 2h ago

Discussion Volatility Tax: The Enemy of Compounding Returns

0 Upvotes

It's common knowledge in value investing circles that volatility isn't risk. While I think this is true when viewing risk from a comprehensive perspective, many falsely believe this means you can ignore volatility entirely. The truth is, there is a known and tangible drag on portfolio performance known as the volatility tax.

Volatility tax is, formally, the difference between the arithmetic and geometric mean of returns. It is also roughly estimated by subtracting variance over 2 from the arithmetic mean. In any case, the more volatile the asset is, the lower the geometric mean is compared to the arithmetic mean.

Why does this matter? Because compound returns are based on the geometric mean of returns, not the arithmetic mean. Here's a simple example. Assume you have an asset that loses 50% of its value in one year, and then gains 100% the next. Its 'average' return is 25% per year, even though you ended up right where you started. The volatility tax, then, is 25%.

Geometric mean = (0.5 x 2)^(1/2) = 1. No return.
Arithmetic mean = (0.5 + 2) / 2 = 1.25. "25%" return.

Let me be clear: this is important because the arithmetic mean is usually what people mean when saying "expected returns". The intelligent investor must understand that volatility eats into compound returns, the REAL returns you expect to make from a portfolio. Therefore, one shouldn't ignore volatility entirely; even if it isn't risk per se, it IS a cost one should keep in mind when making investment decisions.

As a side note, having a low cost basis helps you not worry about volatility eating into your principal investments, but volatility still detracts from future returns. Cheers!


r/ValueInvesting 2h ago

Industry/Sector FDA Reports a New Cyclospora Outbreak - wsj

Thumbnail wsj.com
16 Upvotes

(Note: I bought CMG roughly 10 years because of food poisoning. I sold after the ceo left for Starbucks 2 years ago. Now I am watching this sector closely. This is a long tooth gift horse. Buy with a plan!)

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
FDA Reports a New Cyclospora Outbreak -- 2nd Update
July 22, 2026

By Josh Beckerman

The Food and Drug Administration is looking into a new outbreak of cyclospora linked to a not yet identified product and has initiated traceback.

The new outbreak includes 72 cases.

Government agencies have linked lettuce, including products at Taco Bell locations, to thousands of reports of foodborne illness in the U.S. The FDA reported a false positive test for a sample of Taylor Farms iceberg lettuce, but said there was "overwhelming epidemiological data" supporting a Taylor Farms voluntary recall.

Meanwhile, for another outbreak of cyclospora, the case count has increased from eight to 10, the FDA said Wednesday.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that since May 1, it has received reports of 4,173 laboratory-confirmed domestic cases of cyclosporiasis and was aware of more than 7,400 additional cases that require further investigation and analysis.

Shares of Taco Bell owner Yum Brands, Cava Group, Chipotle Mexican Grill and Sweetgreen moved lower in the afternoon following the FDA's announcement of a new cyclospora outbreak.

Yum Brands ended the day up 0.3% to $147.57 while Sweetgreen was down 7% to $6.30.

In a Tuesday note about the upcoming earnings report from Sprouts Farmers Market, Oppenheimer said the retailer could face "potential headwinds in the produce category related to consumer fears" about cyclospora.

Write to Josh Beckerman at [email protected]


r/ValueInvesting 4h ago

Stock Analysis Is google a buy?

0 Upvotes

Went all in before earnings and now I’m down big. Is it a good buy?


r/ValueInvesting 4h ago

Discussion What is Reddit worth?

0 Upvotes

Normally, I write a long post explaining my point of view. I'm new to Reddit and want to do the opposite and not bias anyone. This is my first post in r/ValueInvesting.

Here are a few facts:

  • Reddit crushes the rule of 40 score.
  • Revenues grew 70% y/y in Q1 2026
  • 38% Adj EBITDA margin in 2025
  • ADJ EBITDA grew 130% y/y in Q1 2026
  • There's essentially no capex and OCF was >$300MM in Q1
  • $1.2Bn in expected FCF for 2026
  • That's a 4% FCF yield based on the current market cap
  • $2.8Bn in cash, against $0 debt

And the concerns

  • North American DAU has slowed to about flat
  • AI (will it be good or bad)

Value investing doesn't mean low P/E, low P/B... if you are Charlie Munger/Henry Singleton you buy great businesses at fair prices. Is that where we are? If not, how far above or below are we?


r/ValueInvesting 4h ago

Discussion Is SK hynix overpriced in the US?

3 Upvotes

Why does the SK Hynix ADR (P/E 23.1) trade at a 33% premium over its local shares, 000660.KS (P/E 17.3)?

Does this mean anyone in the US buying SK Hynix stock is paying a 33% premium just to hold the same shares?

How long can this premium last?


r/ValueInvesting 6h ago

Stock Analysis Volkswagen - People's Car, Priced as Scrap

0 Upvotes

You've prob seen SOTP discounts before, but this one is absurd.

At €75/share, €38Bn MktCap. Volkswagen (VOW.DE, or $VWAGY) trades at a 62% discount to a conservative SOTP (€100Bn)

Volkswagen's stake in Porsche (75%) and TRATON (87.5%); both are publicly listed, worth ~€45Bn ~= 1.2x VW's worth.

You get paid to own VW, Audi, Bentley, Lambo, Financial arm, minority equity stakes in QuantumScape Gotion, XPeng, 2 football clubs, etc. You also get paid ~7% div yield to wait for re-rating, with two independent paths:

1. Earnings recovery:

2025 op profit fell 55% YoY, but the majority of the decline traces to one-off items, tariffs, Porsche restructuring charge, and a truck downturn. A return to 2024-normal earnings would value VW at 2x today's EV/EBIT.

2. Asset unlocks:

  • Lambo, the 3rd largest luxury automaker (behind Porsche and Ferrari), is estimated to be worth ~€20Bn if it IPOs.
  • TRATON, VW's commercial truck biz, with 87.5% stake, targets to reduce to 75%.

Building the bull case is not hard; the hard part is to underwrite the bears: China Crisis, Governance, EV missteps, name a few.

China: JV profit down from a €5.2bn peak to under €1bn, part of a broader foreign-OEM retreat (64% → 31% share since 2020). But China's now only ~10% of group profit and ~5% of modeled SOTP value. Even if it goes to zero, the core thesis barely moves

Governance: a circular ownership structure, a debt-laden family holding company, a labor-controlled supervisory board, and a state government with effective veto rights: a cap table built to resist today's value-unlock. Yet, the June 2026 Everllence sale and a July 2026 board meeting are the first real signs of movement in years.

The list is long, and honestly, every contrarian pick has a long list of "potentially devastating news". The real question is "how bad, and how likely these could occur, and what's the odds-adjusted downside?"

The entire writeup is here https://underhood.substack.com/p/the-peoples-car-priced-like-scrap; a good portion, including SOTP Valuation, 2025 vs 2024 analysis, is before the paywall for those interested.


r/ValueInvesting 8h ago

Stock Analysis Im interested in FSLR and think it may be a good value play for medium term to long term

6 Upvotes

Im not trying to bring politics into this, but lets just say that i think the next US administration will be a democrat and I think politically that offers an opportunity in renewable energy and moreso in things like solar...im big on a nuclear future long term, but medium to long term i think solar will be big too. I was looking at thr Charles Schwab investing themes for renewable energy and First Solat (FSLR) caught my eye.

​1. Company Fundamentals & Moat: Holds a narrow-to-wide moat driven by proprietary thin-film CadTel technology, vertical integration, and a contracted sales backlog extending out multiple years. Its primary competitive edge over Chinese crystalline silicon competitors is protection from domestic trade tariffs and non-China supply chain independence. I think these are likely to remain in some form for the foreseeable future regardless of us administration

​2. Financial Health & Capital Allocation: Extremely healthy balance sheet with ROE around 26% and ROIC around 17%. Holds ~$2.4B in gross cash against only ~$468M–$587M in debt (net cash position ~$1.9B+). Free cash flow is heavily reinvested in U.S. factory expansion rather than dividend payouts

​3. Accounting Quality & Red Flags: Strong operating cash flow (~$2.45B TTM) generally matches net income trends, but the key driver of accounting profit is reliant on policy—specifically Section 45X advanced manufacturing tax credits from the IRA (projected at $2.1B–$2.19B for 2026

4.Valuation & Market Expectations: Trades at a reasonable valuation (~13x–14.5x trailing/forward P/E). A reverse DCF implies low-single-digit underlying terminal growth rates, making current market expectations fairly conservative relative to its multi-year revenue visibility.

  1. Management & Governance: Management consistently executes on capacity targets (scaling toward 25 GW globally) and maintains disciplined leverage, though short-term guidance changes during energy policy shifts remain a key variable to monitor.

6.Macro Factors & Risks: Major tailwinds include utility-scale solar buildouts and AI data-center energy demand. Primary risk is political/policy exposure—changes to tariff rules or domestic manufacturing tax credit phase-outs represent existential long-term margin risks.

I admit that a lot of this started because im pretty confident that the USA will have a democratic administration next, and I think renewable energy is inevitable, but i look at the numbers and they already look like a solid company and will benefit from these trends...especially looking at the P/E right now

Im still trying to refine my thinking, so im open to any feedback or criticism, but i do honestly believe its a solid value play right now and will benefit in the future.


r/ValueInvesting 8h ago

Discussion "AI Bubble" is clearly consensus

41 Upvotes

I was at a conference this week and there was so much discussion about how scarily overvalued the top end of the market is. There were >300 instituional investors at the conference and 100% were extremely concerned about AI related asset prices. It reminded me of this sub a bit.

Every one of these people believed that their viewpoint was out of consensus and that wild exuberance from the "market" broadly was driving prices higher.

At somepoint it has to be concerning to in the same camp as nearly every other investor.

Thoughts?


r/ValueInvesting 9h ago

Discussion $CAVA vs $BROS here ?

2 Upvotes

It’s been beat down to $62, people may be eating less of it when saving money but I still see it has a cult following ? I’m leaning a bit more into bros at these prices just because coffee is cheaper for a consumer.. what do yall think at these prices


r/ValueInvesting 11h ago

Question / Help McDonald's stock good time to buy?

40 Upvotes

I've been looking into McDonald's after its recent decline and wanted to get opinions from people who follow the company more closely.

From what I can tell:

It's down roughly 25% from its recent highs.

P/E is around 21, which seems more reasonable than before.

Dividend yield is close to 3%.

The business still has one of the strongest franchise models in the world.

What I'm trying to understand is why the market has become so bearish still after it dropped 25%

main issue is its current menu prices are too high for people's expectations....then just bring the price down! they make huge margins at MCD anyways. I like those 5$ value meals, it's recession proof and still profitable cuz the drinks

MCD is cheap per calorie with access to wifi, washroom, parking, which is all important in a recession. people would rather eat junk food than starve. poor people don't have money/time for healthy food

average young person is too broke for healthy food as the middle class is shrinking. average young person does not care as much about their health because they are pessimistic of owning properties and retirement and focus more on investing in experiences such as travelling or giving up on the system laying flat living at their parents

I still think McDonald's is considered an essential convenience purchase for a lot of people. Not everyone has the time or ability to cook lunch, whether they're working on the road, at a job site, or they're simply too lazy or tired to cook.

The increase in single people decreases cooking probability, which will also increase sales in fast food.

The sales of Ozempic means you eat less but you can still eat at fast food. Ozempic only reduces food quantity so it's not going to kill the business...most importantly it's still expensive for the lower middle class who cannot afford it

McDonald's still has some of the cheapest fast-food items in North America with the App

Everything has gone up, it's not just MCD menu

the CEO bite meme is old news.

meanwhile Starbucks trades at 80PE wtf lol


r/ValueInvesting 15h ago

Discussion Hedging & value strategies regarding AI bubble (discussion)

7 Upvotes

Before we get into it: Please focus on discussing risk management & positioning in regards to the luring burst of the AI bubble and refrain from arguing that there is no bubble - in the interest of this subs actual purpose.

Certainly nobody knows when the AI bubble will burst, yet it is quite obvious that it has to - probably sooner than later. The market is burning hot, the Buffet Indicator is through the roof and valuations aren´t just stretched anymore: They are batshit crazy and often just psychotic. We see so many symptoms of the final phase of any bubble, for example the insane amount of IPOs launched, and of course the pinnacle of market insanity as in SpaceX and comparable cash-burning, high-risk, zero-gain type of promises. You might still think: "Everything is going great!" Yeah - until it isn´t.

Taking into consideration the exuberance and the market´s recent detachment from reality, the question is: How to prepare for the inevitable? I am not so much asking about speculation regarding the actual price decline in % - a correction could be a meagre -20%, but also a solid -80% depending on your personal portfolio and allocation.

The S&P500 is off the table: Barely any diversification anymore, insanely tech heavy - basically a bubble-ETF at this point.

World Index Funds: Fair, but again with a rather long timeline.

As far as resources go: Gold and silver still highly overvalued, with no tangible value attached to it in the sense of: Gold and silver generate no cashflow or profit.

Personally I am not well educated about oil, so as it goes with value-investing: Don´t buy what you don´t understand fully.

Anyway: What do you folks do to protect yourself from the threatening correction? What is your strategy? How do you structure your portfolios and what buckets do you have?

Looking forward to exchange ideas here.

---

Notabene: For me, I am holding on to almost none of my older positions now except from notable SaaS companies. Europe-based, of course, given that I´d rather trade some odd 2% of gains for stability and detachment from the USD. Not just because of the Orange Man doing his thing, but mainly because of the insane pressure resting on the USD and US stocks being generally overvalued as hell. Add the demographic shift and the risk of tons of people liquidating in the next 5 odd years. We are just talking retail investors here, not institutional investors. Expect those to also sell eventually - and as it goes, we just cannot be as fast as insiders. About the SaaS still: I am into companies providing governmental structures with software solutions. Tax offices and other administrative departments won´t just transfer from a well-working infrastructure to something else that poses security risks. Or even might cause severe data processing delays while millions of people simply have to do their taxes. AI will not replace this - at best, AI will be implemented to streamline already existing infrastructure.

Looking forward to your replies. What are your "safe havens"? What sectors are you researching and why?

(As usual: No financial advice, just personal opinion)


r/ValueInvesting 23h ago

Stock Analysis Copart: The High-Quality Compounder Going Through a Temporary Hiccup.

12 Upvotes

Description: Copart owns an online salvage vehicle auction platform, which sells damaged and total-loss vehicles. The company effectively sits in between insurance companies and buyers (such as rebuilders, licensed dismantlers, recycled parts resellers, individual hobbyists, used-car dealers, and exporters), providing the marketplace to exchange these vehicles. Copart also offers other services including transportation, storage, title processing, and vehicle remarketing. On their website, the company claims they connect nearly 1 million buyers across over 180 countries and sell around 4 million vehicles of every description in every condition annually.

Business Segments:

Service Revenue: Service revenue (~ 85% of total revenue) consists primarily of fees charged to both buyers and sellers in the auction process. Sellers (typically insurance companies) agree to a consignment model in this segment, where Copart takes momentary ownership of the asset to sell it at a certain price, after which Copart keeps a percentage of the final sales price. The total fee breakdown, however, includes auction commissions, seller fees, buyer premiums, title processing, vehicle pickup, transportation coordination, storage fees, and annual membership fees for access to the auction marketplace.

Vehicle Sales: Vehicle sales (~ 15% of revenue) are where Copart purchases vehicles directly from insurers or other sellers before reselling them on its auction platform. This model is primarily used outside of North America, while the U.S. business largely operates under a consignment model where Copart never takes ownership of the vehicle.

BluCar: Outside of insurance auctions, Copart also runs auctions for banks, dealerships, fleet operators, rental car companies, and more through BluCar. These vehicles generally receive higher average selling prices than insurance vehicles, resulting in higher commission revenue per unit. This business has historically been growing faster than the traditional insurance channel.

Competitive Advantages:

Network Effects: Copart's marketplace becomes more valuable as additional buyers and sellers participate in the auction. This is a 2-sided network effect. A larger inventory from sellers attracts more buyers, increasing auction liquidity and higher average selling prices, therefore allowing Copart to make more per sale. Higher realized selling prices then encourage insurance companies and other sellers to continue directing vehicle volume to Copart, creating a sort of flywheel effect.

Land Ownership: Copart operates tens of thousands of acres of salvage yard capacity, with ~ 90% of its land owned rather than leased. Owning its facilities prevents landowners from raising rent, provides flexibility to expand existing locations, and reduces the risk of losing strategically important properties if the owner wants to use the land for another purpose. This also gives Copart an advantage over competitors (aka IAA) that rely heavily on leased facilities/land.

Barriers to Entry: Salvage yards are the focus of regulation in communities due to environmental sustainability efforts, the use of hazardous materials such as antifreeze, zoning restrictions, and community backlash. It could easily take many years to secure land for a salvage yard, meaning new competitors cannot develop a salvage yard inventory like Copart quickly by any means.

Insurance Relationships: Insurance relationships are a key advantage for Copart. Developing relationships and gaining trust with these groups takes years. Since insurers depend on maximizing salvage proceeds while minimizing claim costs, they are more likely to go with a reliable partner like Copart who has a track record of high selling prices, which can offer the insurance companies a high return on their total loss vehicle.

Historical Growth: Over the past decade ending in 2025, Copart grew revenue at ~15% per year. During the same period, free cash flow per share compounded at ~ 22% annually.

Returns on Capital: Copart has averaged ~ 29% ROIC over the past decade ending in 2025. The company has consistently generated well above-average returns while continuing to reinvest into more salvage yards and international growth.

Balance Sheet: The balance sheet is very strong, with no debt and approximately $4.2 billion in cash as of 2026.

Cash Conversion: Cash conversion has averaged lower than 100% because Copart invests in acquiring land and expanding facilities, which is recorded as capital expenditures on the cash flow statement. Free cash flow conversion reached roughly 80% during 2025 and has already increased to around 87% during 2026 as capex into these yards has started to taper down.

Pricing Power: Copart earns fees from both buyers and sellers, but most of the auction fees come from buyers. Since there are only so many insurance companies providing auction inventory, Copart maintains attractive economics for them. A fragmented buyer base and higher auction liquidity have allowed buyer fees to steadily increase over the past decade without disrupting marketplace activity.

Risks: No company comes without risks.

  • Safer Vehicles: As cars modernize, more safety features are built in, decreasing accident frequency. However, management believes the more important metric is total loss frequency (TLF) rather than accident frequency, which describes the percent of vehicles in a collision that are deemed total loss. The explanation for this is as follows: as vehicles become increasingly complex, repair costs continue rising due to cameras, sensors, batteries, and other electronics, causing more damaged vehicles to be declared total losses.
  • Autonomous Vehicles: AVs have been shown to have much lower accident rates that human drivers, meaning fewer cars will flow through the Copart auction platform. While autonomous vehicles remain a long-term consideration, widespread adoption is likely decades away, as it will take probably decades for a fleet of cars to fully turn over and reflect higher AV usage, if at all.
  • Weather Volatility: Mild weather reduces accident volumes and therefore salvage supply, while major catastrophes increase vehicle supply but also usually lead to higher temporary costs.
  • Economic Conditions: During periods of economic weakness, consumers may drive fewer miles, reducing accident frequency and salvage volumes. Less capital in the marketplace may also lead to lower ASPs and therefore reduced revenues.
  • Insurance Coverage Trends: Rising insurance premiums have contributed to an increase in uninsured and underinsured motorists in recent years. Vehicles involved in accidents without the necessary insurance are not as likely to flow through Copart’s salvage yards (because insurance doesn’t handle these claims). Management believes this is primarily a cyclical trend rather than a permanent structural change, but long-term increases in uninsured customers could lead to more of a structural change in salvage flows.

Copart is by many metrics a Quality Company with multiple durable competitive advantages. Its largest is the 2-sided network effect; network effects are the type of competitive advantage associated with the highest long-term returns.

With the company in almost a 60% drawdown, and management buying back significant amounts of stock on the open market, it is very likely going to produce a double-digit return moving forward.

Despite the saturated U.S. market, the company has other business segments and international markets leading the next phase of growth as well.

What do you all think about Copart? Agree or Disagree? Other thoughts?


r/ValueInvesting 23h ago

Stock Analysis 15 Investment write-ups to look at

13 Upvotes

Company write-ups from Substack, all published within the last week.

Not my work - sourced from Giles Capital's weekly compilation: https://gilescapital.substack.com/p/giles-capital-weekly-week-29-b61

Americas

Rebound Capital on Amazon (🇺🇸 AMZN US - US$2.6tn) AWS has a $364bn contracted backlog and silicon cutting compute costs roughly in half. Fair value sits well above today's price. Strong thesis, not a cheap entry.

Rijnberk InvestInsights on Stryker (🇺🇸 SYK US - US$125bn) Surgical robotics market leader with an unbroken 32-year dividend streak. Trading below its own historical average post-cyberattack. Net debt of $12.3bn is the counterargument.

HatedMoats on MercadoLibre (🇦🇷 MELI US - US$92bn) Dominant across LatAm e-commerce and fintech, though margins remain thin at 4.7%. Revenue grew nearly 50% in Q1 and the stock still fell. Growth thesis only.

Acid Investments on The Buckle (🇺🇸 BKE US - US$2.2bn) Strip out the Q1 litigation benefit and earnings were flat. Founder family owns a third, zero debt, $266m in cash. Insiders are net sellers.

Acid Investments on Compass Diversified (🇺🇸 CODI US - US$760m) Management fee was halved on July 13, bonuses now tied to the stock price, CEO succession settled. Trades at $11 against a sum-of-parts value of $27.

Europe, Middle East & Africa

Simon Brenncke on Trainline (🇬🇧 TRN LN - £2.0bn) Trading at 7x EV/EBITDA with returns consistently above 20%. CEO exits in September, successor already named. UK regulatory headwinds are real. European rail liberalisation is the multi-year thesis.

Show Me The Incentives on InMode (🇮🇱 INMD US - US$960m) TOP PICK Two groups are bidding above market. Net cash of $537m covers more than half the $960m market cap. The balance sheet is doing most of the work.

Angsana Anderson on Craneware (🇬🇧 CRW LN - £490m) Dominant US hospital software at 40% market penetration. The stated 14x P/E may be significantly higher after adjusting for a regulatory delay. Recovery thesis. Tread carefully.

Tangible Bruce on Orchard Funding Group (🇬🇧 ORCH AIM - £13m) Micro-cap UK lender at 4x earnings, below tangible book, 20% ROE. CEO holds the majority. Two-year-old fraud resolved, overhang removed. Liquidity extremely thin.

Asia-Pacific

Crack The Market on Samsung Electronics (🇰🇷 005930 KS - US$220bn) Quarterly profit came in 19x the year-ago number. The headline 4.6x P/E is much less cheap once cycle-normalized. Buyback program and possible US listing remain unpriced.

Cohong Lane on BYD (🇨🇳 1211 HK - US$90bn) Q1 earnings fell more than half on domestic price war compression. Overseas sales surged. Cheap on the headline number. Where the earnings floor sits is the question.

Quality Equities on SK Hynix (🇰🇷 SKHY US - US$55bn) More than half the high-bandwidth memory market, with Q1 margins above 70%. Cycle-normalized earnings make 5.4x look considerably less cheap. Worth revisiting if the capacity ramp stalls.

Musa Iftikhar on Lucky Cement (🇵🇰 LUCK KSE - US$2.3bn) TOP PICK Pakistan's largest cement producer, 6x forward earnings despite 35% five-year growth. Half its income now comes from outside Pakistan. The frontier discount hasn't fully closed.

Overlooked and Undervalued on Reckon (🇦🇺 RKN AU - US$31m) Core accounting software for Australian SMEs trading under 4x EV/EBIT. The CEO draws nothing until shareholders receive A$150m in cumulative distributions. Liquidity thin.

The International Investor on PTFC Redevelopment (🇵🇭 TFC PM - US$30m) Debt-free Philippine compounder in storage and leasing, trading well below intrinsic value. 18% ROIC sustained for a decade. Market cap under US$30m, trading thin.


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Stock Analysis GE Aerospace ($GE) 2nd Quarter Due Diligence article

5 Upvotes

Here is my due diligence for GE Aerospace, I try and prepare such documents every quarter for my key investments.

The summary for GE Aerospace for Q2 is this:

a. The 4 main catalysts for this company are still intact, although some of these points are double-edged. GE will further optimise these so that we can expect further margin expansion in future. Eg. While the booking backlogs gives it visibility of the business, it also ties up cash and delays revenue recognition.

  • Long term travel demand
  • Supply chain issues with backlog at 4+ years.
  • The Retirement rate of older planes is still at 2% (versus 4% norm)
  • Fleet refresh by 2045.

b. Four addiitonal value investors joined the GE bandwagon from seven in the last quarter. They bought around $275 to $300+ This is me confidence that my valuation isn't that far off.

c. In terms of valuation, due to long visibility of the business (4 years backlog for GE, 8-12 years on Boeing and Airbus which uses GE engines), i used a 14% CAGR for 10 years, this gives me a fair value price of around 280+.

My conclusion is that it is too expensive right now to add more, and too cheap to sell. I will opt to sit tight.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/165DlnfWJqiuYCGhGnqZkE8GYMSxQA5OQItRUir47R20/edit?usp=sharing

(Warning: 1. the document contains "AI-Slop". 2. the document isn't the whole thesis, there aren't any moat discussion or catalysts in detail, or management shareholder friendliness etc. This is just a quarterly due diligence article.)

TLDR: You have to use a desktop computer to view this.


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Discussion The AI Revolution and Investing: Has it meaningfully changed the way you invest?

2 Upvotes

As a software engineer, AI has completely changed how I work. But using the same tools e.g. Claude Code/ChatGPT out of the box to invest hasn't really moved the needle.

I know the likes of Bloomberg and FactSet have built integrations for institutional investors to expose their data to those tools. But to my knowledge, there doesn't seem to be an equivalent solution for retail. Would people pay a small monthly fee to pull data as they saw fit from SEC edgar filings, 13F filings, insider trades, end of day/intraday price data, technical indicators, macro data, etc. directly into Claude/ChatGPT?


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Discussion M&A Arbitrage IMXI

7 Upvotes

The acquisition of IMXI by WU at $16 a share appears to be a good opportunity for an M&A Arbitrage. Everyone here seems to neglect the teachings of Graham's core 2 value investing books (II+SA). One of these neglected subjects is M&A Arbitrage.

Holdups: Mamdani's political grandstanding has delayed regulatory approval by NYDFS.

They are the ONLY governing body who has yet to approve or no objection (51 other states + territories + international bodies have cleared)

Calculations:

Payout= $3/share (16-13)

Risk = $4/share (13-9)

Est. Timeline = 4 mo

Psuccess = 85%

CAGR = (3 x 0.85 - 4 x 0.15) / (0.33 x 13) = 45%


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Stock Analysis Why the AI Software Panic is Wrong: A Deep Dive on Autodesk (ADSK) and its Unbreakable Moat

17 Upvotes

There is a growing narrative in the market right now that generative AI will make mission-critical enterprise software obsolete, and that traditional software companies will see their margins and pricing power eroded.

​I believe this thesis fundamentally misunderstands enterprise workflows, legal liability, and how software moats actually operate. When you evaluate the competitive moat of industry leaders like Autodesk (ADSK), the recent market pessimism looks less like a structural breakdown and more like a textbook mispricing.

​Here is a bottom-up fundamental breakdown of why Autodesk remains highly insulated from macroeconomic cycles and AI disruption.

​1. Debunking the AI Disruption Narrative

​The fear driving software stock compression is simple. If AI can write code and generate 3D models, why will companies pay for expensive software seats?

​While that logic might apply to consumer applications, it fails completely in high-precision, regulated industries like architecture, engineering, and construction. A generative AI model cannot legally sign off on the structural integrity of a bridge or a skyscraper.

​Enterprise workflows require deterministic, exact calculations. AI will serve as an acceleration layer inside tools like AutoCAD and Revit, not a replacement for the platform itself.

​2. An Unbreakable Network Effect

​Founded in 1982, Autodesk democratized Computer-Aided Design (CAD). Decades later, an entire global workforce of architects and engineers has been trained on their ecosystem.

​AutoCAD is not just software. It is the literal language that the physical world is built in. An entire generation of professionals learned their trade on it, creating a compounding network effect where switching costs are astronomical.

​3. Monetization & Business Model Evolution

​When evaluating a corporate moat, pricing power is the ultimate metric. Autodesk consistently demonstrates this through several key factors:

​Gross Margins: The company consistently posts gross margins above 90%, backed by a 97% recurring revenue model and a net revenue retention rate over 100%.

​Direct-to-Customer Transition: Autodesk is actively transitioning away from third-party resellers toward a direct sales model. This allows them to capture higher margins per user and retain end-to-end pricing control.

​The MaintainX Acquisition: Autodesk just signaled a massive expansion with its $3.6 billion all-cash acquisition of MaintainX. By moving into physical facility and asset operations, they bridge the gap between design data and real-world asset lifecycle management, widening an already impenetrable moat.

​4. Valuation & DCF Framework

​Autodesk is currently priced for peak AI pessimism. When calculating intrinsic value through discounted cash flow modeling, I prefer to start with highly pessimistic assumptions.

​Bear Case: Assuming revenue growth decelerates to a mere 10% by 2030, the implied intrinsic value floor for the stock sits at $247. The downside risk is heavily capped.

​Base Case: Under a more realistic scenario reflecting moderate growth and execution on their direct sales model, intrinsic value sits at $338. This represents a massive 56% upside from current levels.

​Note: This is an abbreviated overview of a broader equity research report I published this week. If you want to review the full financial models, data sources, and my expanded commentary on macro rearmament trends, you can read the complete article here:

https://mulberryfinancial.substack.com/p/autodesk-adsk-ai-moat-market-history?r=4af6n2


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Investor Behavior The Obvious Problems with Heuristics

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5 Upvotes

Summary -

Heuristics are helpful yet lacking advice. Since each company has its specific situations, math formulas just do not cut it. You have to adjust numbers for each company.


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Discussion Warren Buffett says "It’s tough to find values when everybody is preferring gambling." What are retail investors actually supposed to do right now?

159 Upvotes

During a recent interview, Warren Buffett dropped a line that pretty much sums up how a lot of us have been feeling about the market lately:

He pointed out that when the financial industry makes more money cultivating day-traders, 0DTE options junkies, and speculative thrill-seekers than real long-term investors, the whole market starts acting like a giant casino.

When Berkshire Hathaway sits on roughly $400 billion in cash because valuations are stretched thin, it’s easy for a normal individual investor to feel lost. If the greatest value investor of all time is struggling to find good deals, what are everyday people trying to build wealth supposed to do?


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Discussion Sold all RY and TD

13 Upvotes

My Dividend discount models say they will return less than 6.5% annually so I sold them to buy TSX index ETF, transitioning to smaller stock picking portfolio as I don’t think I can beat the indexes on the long run. Did 3x with RY in 6 years and 2x with TD in 3 years so not too shabby but I’m sure they will continue to go up now that I’ve sold. I bought them when the model said I can get 10%.


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Question / Help Why is OXY so cheap?

19 Upvotes

Looks like it is about a third cheaper than competitors COP and EOG, on EV:EBITDA and Market Cap:Levered Free Cash Flow. Plus, it is a Buffet favorite. Anyone analyzed these names and have a logical answer?


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Discussion A super cycle market in commodities and a Bull market in index funds cannot co-exist.

0 Upvotes

That being said, we are in the first quarter of a commodity super cycle, and i am seeing people pouring their life savings into the most heavily weighted stocks within index funds.

This time will not be different.

The implied return over the next 10 years for index funds will be zero or less.

Include inflation with that and they will be negative.


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Question / Help Booking Trips/Hotels Industry

2 Upvotes

When I look at the travel industry, I see a lot of competition and uncertainty for the future. While I have parents that are willing to go to an in person travel agency to book a trip, I realize that this model is effectively extinct (or will be soon). It seems that the major travel sites like Booking.com , Hotels.com, Expedia, all seem to have sort of relationship with the hotel, travel excursion companies. Coupled with the total number of options available on each site, there seems to also be a type of network effect similar to the value given by social media companies along with the perception of the brand.

My question is multifaced.

How do people currently books trips (do you use a website like Booking.com or do you prefer to contact the hotel directly? I am specifically wondering in the context of finding deals as I don't travel much.

Do you realistically see artificial intelligence having the ability to seamlessly allows you to book a hotel? ( I'm basically referring to open claw style control. This seams questionable to me given the security concerns of taking on credit card information. Maybe there is a middle ground?)

Hopefully this makes sense. Again, I don't travel at all. Cheers.