A few weeks ago I went to a park in Oslo, sat down on a bench, me and a random guy started some small talk. After about 20 minutes, another random guy came over and we all chatted for a while.
After some time one of the guys introduced himself and shook the other guy's hand, saying, "My name is Martin."
The other guy's eyes got big and he said, "What a coincidence, my name is also Martin."
I couldn't believe my ears. Then they both looked at me and asked, "So, what's your name?"
I looked up at the sky, long pause, then back at them and said, "You're not going to believe this... my name is also Martin."
The odds:
Picking 3 random men from the population and they are all named Martin is estimated to be 1 to 2 million.
Key numbers:
Male population (Norway): 2.8 million
Men named Martin: 22,200
1 in 126 men is named Martin (0.79%)
Odds that 3 random men are all named Martin: (1/126)³ = 1 in 2,000,376 (≈ 1 in 2 million)
Further modest estimate:
Three random men all named Martin:
1 in 2,000,000
50% chance the first two talk.
50% chance the third joins the conversation.
50% chance they eventually exchange names.
1 / 2,000,000 × 1/2 × 1/2 × 1/2 = 1 / 16,000,000
If we assume there were relatively few people in the park and that the three could have ended up at many different spots and different times, the odds become substantially lower, potentially on the order of 1 in 100 million or even rarer.
Anybody had a bigger coincident than this? Happy to answer questions to find a more accurate odds.