Two things that have nothing to do with each other happened in the same three weeks and they're now compounding.

Thing one: the Strait of Hormuz. A peace deal signed June 17 gave Iran a 60-day toll-free reopening window, and it genuinely worked for a few weeks — oil traded back down to pre-war levels by June 29, Qatari LNG carriers started re-entering the Gulf, tanker traffic picked back up. Then the week of July 7 it all came apart: the ceasefire ended, Iran fired on six Gulf states in a single barrage (Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, Oman, UAE — hit the UAE's Fujairah bypass terminal directly), the US Navy reinstated its blockade on Iranian shipping July 14, and Yemen's Houthis formally joined the war, threatening to close the Red Sea's Bab el-Mandeb strait too. A drone hit a docked tanker at Iraq's Basra export terminal July 16. Brent gained back three weeks of decline in about five days.

Thing two, happening at the same time and mostly unrelated: Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian oil refineries has escalated hard. Ukraine's own General Staff claims 42.74% of Russia's designed refining capacity is now disabled (independent analysts estimate the real functional number closer to a third, which is still enormous). The one that matters most: Omsk, Russia's single largest refinery, was forced offline by a strike the week of July 6-7. Two more (Saratov, Kstovo) were also hit. Russian crude processing has fallen to its lowest level since 2005. Russia's response: it banned all diesel exports on July 8, running through the end of the month.

Why this compounds instead of just adding up: Europe and the US don't buy Russian diesel directly anymore (banned since 2023), but that export ban still tightens the global diesel pool everyone else competes for — right as the Hormuz reopening that was supposed to ease Gulf supply just reversed. Diesel specifically (more than gasoline) is the product that gets squeezed hardest by Middle East supply disruptions, because Middle Eastern crude refines into more of it proportionally.

Concrete effects already showing up:

• Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility — which had just started recovering export volumes post-ceasefire — has that recovery interrupted again
• US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at 316.5 million barrels, the lowest since April 1983, just as a new supply shock hits (the reserve built to buffer exactly this kind of event keeps shrinking during the event itself)
• Australia's five-city average petrol price has climbed roughly 5 cents/litre in the last two and a half weeks as an excise relief measure partially unwinds
• 40+ Russian regions are now restricting domestic fuel sales, Crimea is under a fuel-related state of emergency

None of this is "the world is running out of oil" — US natural gas storage is comfortably above the 5-year average, and EU gas storage refill is actually running slightly ahead of pace for the first time this cycle. It's specifically a diesel and Gulf-LNG story, and it's a story about two separate shocks landing in the same three-week window rather than one big cause.

I track this stuff daily at global-energy-flow.com

Missing animal feed is one of my biggest concerns. I can change what I eat but it is harder to make alternative plans for livestock and pets.

Price for Xbox is increasing due to shortage of memory.

https://www.techrepublic.com/article/news-xbox-console-price-increase/

Europe buys exported oil from US and others. Trump said US had weeks of oil left, as soon as US stops exporting and reaches the minimum amount of oil needed to keep infrastructure from collapsing what will happen to those buying from US? And Europe in general doesn't even produce it's own oil, what will the crisis look like for Europe

They say they made agreement now there is no more deal and it's like this issue has been going on for several months now. And the shortage of oil seems to be on the horizon.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/theres-cottage-cheese-shortage-private-140000984.html

Surveying automotive suppliers across Canada today, most stores surveyed are showing they are out or nearly out of 0W8 & 0W16 high performance oils. Even the more ubiquitous 0W20 grades are starting to show restricted supply.

This was expected but still concerning as to the rapidity with which it is spreading given the real economic and individual impacts it will have as it continues to spread. Which it will.

Weekly update, one week on. The tracker now stands at 32 confirmed fuel-supply disruptions worldwide — 19 active shortages plus 13 on watch — down from 35 last week. The 14-day re-confirmation audit removed several lower-confidence pins while a few regional stresses eased on hopes of supply normalization. ("Active" = confirmed physical shortage: stations dry, rationing in force, or a fuel-driven carrier/route collapse. "Watch" = price/contingency stress that hasn't hit the pump yet.)The dominant story this week is the sharp de-escalation signal: On June 14 the US and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding for a ceasefire on all fronts, with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the US to lift its naval blockade. Formal signing is scheduled for June 19 in Geneva.

Oil markets reacted immediately. Brent and WTI sold off sharply on the news, with prices dropping toward the $77–$83 range in recent sessions after earlier spikes. This follows months of Hormuz disruption (now Day ~109+, the longest major post-WWII chokepoint closure), which had kept a heavy supply premium in place despite IEA-coordinated stock releases and alternative routing.The fragile hope is that flows can begin normalizing after signing, though executives caution it will take months for tankers, inventories, and production to fully recover — meaning physical shortages and elevated prices could linger into Q3, especially for jet fuel heading into peak summer travel. Europe continues to watch jet fuel stocks closely, with earlier warnings about dipping toward critical thresholds.

Live map : https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/

Country pages:
US: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-states/
UK: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-kingdom/
Canada: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/canada/
Australia: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/australia/
EU: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/eu/

Forecast charts:
EU petrol & diesel availability: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/eu/forecast/
US gas prices + SPR: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-states/forecast/
UK jet fuel days-of-cover: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-kingdom/forecast/
Australia petrol & diesel: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/australia/forecast/

(Sources throughout: government decrees, regulator filings, operator statements, IEA, GIE AGSI+, ACCC, AAA, EIA WPSR, Bruegel, IATA, Cirium, TradingEconomics, national press, and open-source conflict trackers. Each disruption is dropped if it can't be re-confirmed within 14 days.)

I'm just kidding but also kinda not. Medicine shortages suck big time

Weekly update, one week on. The tracker now stands at 35 confirmed fuel-supply disruptions worldwide — 19 active shortages plus 16 on watch — down one from 36 last week. Monday's 14-day re-confirmation audit removed three Asian watch-tier pins (Timor-Leste, Vietnam, Laos couldn't be re-confirmed within the 14-day rule), demoted Thailand from active to watch, and added New Zealand (MBIE Phase 1 Watchful — formal monitoring posture, not a panic add). Smaller pin count, higher map credibility. ("Active" = confirmed physical shortage: stations dry, rationing in force, or a fuel-driven carrier/route collapse. "Watch" = price/contingency stress that hasn't hit the pump yet.)

The big story this week is the whipsaw from last week. Last week I posted that the US–Iran deal had collapsed on June 1 and crude had jumped on the Bab el-Mandeb threat. Over the three sessions that followed, the supply premium drained: by Friday June 5 Brent had settled at $93.05 (–2.3% on the day, –2% on the week — fully unwinding the Jun 3 US–Iran kinetic-exchange spike), WTI at $90.30 (–3%). Three demand-side forces compounded simultaneously: Chinese crude imports fell to a 10-year low in May (–25% YoY per the General Administration of Customs); OPEC+ approved a third consecutive monthly +188 kbpd output increase for July at the June 5 JMMC; and President Trump publicly criticised Israeli strikes on Beirut Friday and urged Netanyahu to avoid retaliating against Iran — the first time the White House had visibly leaned against Israeli escalation.

Then over the weekend, fresh kinetic exchange. Iran and Israel exchanged missile strikes June 6–7 — after roughly ten days of de-escalation, the fragile ceasefire architecture Trump had been pushing was challenged. Brent surged intraday Monday June 8 to approximately $98 before easing as Iran stated it had ended military operations against Israel and Trump publicly called for a new 60-day ceasefire. Monday close: Brent $94.10 (+1.1% from Friday's $93.05), WTI $93.95 (+4.0% from $90.30). The de-escalation pull is challenged but not broken — Iran's Monday statement is a positive signal, but the weekend exchange showed how brittle the ceasefire architecture remains.

Live map + country pages: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/

Country pages:

• US: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-states/
• UK: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-kingdom/
• Canada: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/canada/
• Australia: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/australia/
• EU: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/eu/

Forecast charts:

• EU petrol & diesel availability: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/eu/forecast/
• US gas prices + SPR: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-states/forecast/
• UK jet fuel days-of-cover: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-kingdom/forecast/
• Australia petrol & diesel: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/australia/forecast/

(Sources throughout: government decrees, regulator filings, operator statements, IEA, GIE AGSI+, ACCC, AAA, EIA WPSR, Bruegel, IATA, Cirium, TradingEconomics, ORF Middle East, national press. Each disruption is dropped if it can't be re-confirmed within 14 days — that's what generated this week's net pin-count decline.)