Buy the Dip? UBS Sees Buying Opportunity in Chip and AI Stocks
Following weeks of steep losses across semiconductor and artificial intelligence stocks, UBS believes the sell-off in momentum shares is reaching its end. While hedge funds have slashed their positions and short interest has climbed to record highs, indicators are pointing toward a potential turnaround.
Weeks of Heavy Selling Weigh on Tech
According to reports from Bloomberg, the sharp downturn in AI and chip stocks may be drawing to a close. Momentum equities have been under heavy pressure since mid-June, with many falling by double-digit percentages—and high-fliers such as SK Hynix and SanDisk dropping as much as 40% from their peak levels.
Investors pulled back to lock in gains after a massive AI rally, driven by growing skepticism over stretched valuations and the heavy capital expenditure (capex) commitments of big tech hyperscalers. Capital rotated out of tech into banks, industrials, and traditional cyclical sectors.
Hedge Funds De-Risk at Record Levels
Institutional positioning became exceptionally defensive:
- Record Short Interest: S&P 500 short interest rose to 3.79% of float—the highest level recorded since data collection began in 2010. For the Russell 3000, short interest surged to a record 6.3%.
- Massive Unwinding: UBS Prime Brokerage data shows hedge funds reduced long momentum and semiconductor exposure by roughly 5% of total market value, marking one of the largest position cutbacks in recent years.
UBS Strategy: A Measured "Buy the Dip"
Because of the massive unwinding, net long exposure in semiconductor and software stocks has reverted to levels last seen in April.
Michael Romano, Head of Hedge Fund Equity Derivatives at UBS, sees this setup as a signal to start rebuilding positions—though he advises a gradual, phased approach rather than buying all at once:
UBS estimates that the momentum unwind could wrap up by the end of July. Romano added that if market sentiment shifts, it could trigger a sharp upward squeeze: "When sentiment turns, I expect an upside liquidity squeeze."
What’s Next for the Market?
Whether this rebound sparks a broad market rally or draws capital back out of recently outperforming sectors (like banking and industrials) will depend heavily on the current earnings season. If Big Tech delivers solid results and validates high AI expectations, the tech sell-off could come to a halt much faster than expected.