Rocket Lab was awarded a $266M contract with the U.S. Air Force to launch 12 suborbital vehicles, with options for six more. Launches will take place in Alaska and are expected to be completed by the end of 2028.

$200 by EOY

Today rocket lab was awarded a $266m contract for 12 HASTE missions to be launched from Alaska, a location that Rocket Lab doesn't currently have a launch pad at. That contract has already been spoken about a lot on this sub, but don't worry - this post won't just be about that. I want to particularly discuss whether or not Rocket Lab will be sharing an existing launch pad at the Pacific Spaceport Complex, or whether they will be constructing a new one (LC-4?).

Initially I was quite a big believer in Rocket Lab just sharing another existing pad. They already have LC-2, and that pad is nowhere near capacity. But then I remembered Rocket Lab's 'upcoming launches' page. HASTE launches usually display 'Launch Complex 2' as the launch location, and we could see this with Andurils upcoming HASTE launch. But just below that is the first of 20 HASTE launches for MACH-TB, and the location there is 'Undisclosed'.

Why would Rocket Lab keep the launch location undisclosed if it was going to launch from LC-2, which is a very well disclosed and documented launch pad? Well what if the 20 HASTE missions aren't launching from LC-2, as originally expected? If that's the case, then we could actually be looking at as many as 38 HASTE launches from Alaska (the 20 from MACH-TB, plus the 12 guaranteed in this contract + 6 optional launches also from Alaska).

If it is the case that all 20 MACH-TB launches will also be launching from Alaska, or even half of them, then I believe we may be seeing a new exclusive launch pad for Rocket Lab. In other words, Rocket Lab may have been secretly constructing an LC-4.

Any thoughts?

Hey guys!

Found this earlier: https://www.space.gov.au/sites/default/files/media-documents/2026-07/Statement-on-Space.pdf - a statement from the Australian government on their plans for the space industry. It mentions hypersonics specifically, and also contains this information about Neutron:

“We have been engaged with and negotiating with U.S. rocket manufacturers for several years now and we have all be awaiting the TSA completion,” said Michael Jones, chairman and group chief executive of ELA, in a statement.

The signing of the TSA “clears the way for us to finalize our contracts with U.S. launchers.” The precise demand for Australian launch sites from American launch companies remains unclear. The ELA statement included an illustration of four small launch vehicles from ABL Space Systems, Astra, Phantom Space and Vaya Space, as well as Rocket Lab’s Neutron medium-lift rocket."

Of course that is just a prospectus, and doesn't mean any binding agreements have been made, but I think at LEAST HASTE will be launched from Australian soil at some point.

This, as well as the job postings for launch and test operations in Sydney & Melbourne, constitute pretty concrete evidence of RocketLabs plans:

So the Alaska pads new name is officially Pad 3D:

So, the $266m contract must be partly for work being done to construct the launch site, not just the launches. I imagine the HASTE pricing is in line with what we'd expect, and the extra money is construction related.

Eps is fine. Had some capex due to transaction costs (of a mere 14 million? C'MON! Pockectchange!) due to pending acquisition ny RKLB. That is expected and really a nothing burger!

Numbers dropped this morning:

• Revenue $225.2M, +4% YoY
• Service revenue $161.3M, +4%, 72% of total
• Net income $9.7M / $0.09 EPS, down from $22.0M / $0.20
• OEBITDA $119.1M, −2%
• Subscribers 2,627k, +6%

The EPS collapse looks bad but isn't operational. $14.3M in transaction costs (zero last year) blew up SG&A from $44.6M to $67.0M. Strip that out and this is a boring, fine quarter. The OEBITDA dip is mostly a $3.9M accrual change from paying bonuses all-cash instead of part equity, which they'd already telegraphed.

Growth is basically all commercial IoT — subs up 9%, 72k net adds vs 40k a year ago. Broadband is the ugly line: revenue −8%, ARPU −7%. Commercial voice/data subs shrank 3% but ARPU rose 7% on last year's price hikes, so they're squeezing a smaller base. Government is flat-ish, and the EMSS renewal with Space Force isn't due until March 2027.

Two things actually matter here:

Rocket Lab is buying them. Definitive agreement signed June 28, close expected mid-2027, pending shareholder vote. That's why there's no earnings call and no guidance this quarter — standard for a pending deal.

They bought Aireon on July 2 for ~$366.7M. Half cash, half an interest-free seller note due in a year, plus assuming Aireon's $154.7M facility. Drew $100M on the revolver to fund it. Management claims it adds $100M+ annualized service revenue and $30M OEBITDA. Note that $184.2M cash and 3.3x net leverage are pre-Aireon, so the balance sheet looks worse than it reads here.

TL;DR: operationally unremarkable, IoT carrying the growth, broadband bleeding. The GAAP number is deal noise. The stock is a merger-arb play at this point, not a fundamentals story — you're mostly betting on the Rocket Lab deal closing.

Source: PR Newswire release

Yesterday the Australian Space Agency published a 'Statement on Space', outlining how they intend to grow the Australian space sector. Focus area 2 looks at Launch capabilities. To Rocket Lab's potential benefit, they highlight the key opportunities to be:

• Launch and return services - supporting domestic and international missions through secure and responsible launch, re-entry and recovery pathways that leverage Australia’s geography
• Sub-orbital flight applications - applying range, safety and operational capability to novel activities including hypersonics, space planes and overland flight testing.

I would typically have ignored a statement like this. Dozens of countries are looking to expand their space sector. But on the same day as the Statement on Space, Rocket Lab posted 2 job opportunities for a Launch & Test Operations Manager - both based in Australia.

A key paragraph from the job listing is this: "Rocket Lab is seeking an exceptional Manager for Test and Launch Operations, someone who thrives when the countdown hits zero and the world is watching. You'll lead front-line engineering teams executing critical test and launch operations for Electron and Neutron, playing a pivotal role in maintaining Rocket Lab's industry-leading launch cadence."

While we were all looking at Alaska, it looks as if Rocket Lab was also eyeing up a new pad in Australia.

Linkedin post: https://au.linkedin.com/jobs/view/manager-test-launch-operations-at-rocket-lab-4440187756?trk=public_jobs_topcard-title
Statement on Space: https://www.space.gov.au/sites/default/files/media-documents/2026-07/Statement-on-Space.pdf

RFP for Mechanical subcontractor closes 8/5/26.

FCC just approved the new Part 100 rules 3-0, basically cutting a lot of the old licensing mess for satellites and ground stations. good for the whole US space sector and indirectly for RKLB’s Space Systems business, but of course this is not new backlog.

what are your thoughts about it especially toward RKLB?

Hi, I wanted to post a list off the significant Peter Beck interviews over the last couple years. Useful to watch in these markets to remain confident!

Markets with Madison:

1. May 2023 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPfK1sjo2KE&t=526s
2. October 2023 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCUlOiMKP6E&t=417s
3. June 2024 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svTrm37OdK0
4. October 2024 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0bXJgDD8lk
5. May 2025 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9Q3cuJUQ4Q
6. April 2026 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZONt4S0IEI
7. April 2026 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5c1ZIvPWFV4

Rocket Lab weekly:

1. May 2025 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VojhRDJWaNc
2. May 2026 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gp76KjXkjc
3. July 2026 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WtiQu9nuHC0&t=1720s

Shareisis:

1. August 2024 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjSUA4NEA2k
2. September 2025 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-Ww4RV1CaM

Miles o Brien:

1. January 2026 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nl8Sp6y85wY

Relentless:

1. March 2026 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yfrm31sSrDI

TED

1. December 2019 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhnBn_c9f8Q&t=20s

The Motley Fool:

1. December 2025 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wiaCG19OhWU&t=610s

Prof G Markets:

1. June 2026 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiMLm0h_jRw

"Has IRDM received even more interest in its backup GPS services and ASIC chip in the 2nd quarter vs the 1st?

Yes, meaningfully — and there's a fresh news angle here that's directly relevant to tomorrow's earnings.

On July 14, 2026 (just a week ago, squarely in Q2/early Q3), Iridium announced the PNT ASIC moved from development/interest to actual commercial availability — that's a real milestone, not just pre-orders. The "150+ organizations" interest figure I found earlier still holds as the cumulative demand number since the October 2025 unveiling, and now that's converting into a shippable product with real partners, including Solace Communications integrating the chip into its Vector line of assured PNT products (combining Iridium PNT with multi-band GNSS and inertial sensing).

There's also a timely catalyst helping demand: the announcement specifically cites the May 2026 in-flight GPS jamming incident involving UK Defence Secretary John Healey as an example of the exact threat this product addresses — that kind of high-profile spoofing/jamming event tends to accelerate procurement conversations in aviation, defense, and critical infrastructure.

I don't have a hard number on new organizations added specifically during Q2 versus the original 150+ figure — Iridium hasn't broken that out yet — but the timing lines up well: this becomes a real talking point on tomorrow's Q2 earnings call, since it's the first quarter where the ASIC is commercially available rather than just "coming soon." Worth listening for management's framing of it on the call."

Good luck to all longs with IRDM's earnings release tomorrow morn.

India's Skyroot launches Vikram-1 in first private orbital rocket mission

RocketLab has a serious competitor. Their marketcap is under $1B and did it. In less than 8 years.

Space launch is getting cheaper and more competitive.

I am sure RKLB will launch Neutron at some point. Move to constellations. Question is when will it happen? Time is not a luxury anymore. I worry about valuation compression.