The state of Texas real estate,

Texas currently has 278k properties for sale, of the total 12mm homes including apartments. Of the 278k 206k are single family homes, condos and apartments for sale. With a median price of 340k dollars.

Texas exploded when covid hit, causing a massive run on real estate. I experienced this first hand, I bought a house in 2018 for 320k and sold it for 600k in late 2021, this in my mind was unsustainable. Since the peak of 2022, housing in major metropolitan areas, Austin, DFW, San Antonio, El Paso and Houston have been contracting. Ausitn being hit the hardest at over 20% drop from the highs, with a current median home price of 450K. The house I sold for 600k is now worth according to Zillow 460k.

Inventory has been creeping up based on FED data, above the pre covid levels while new home builds are also high with 1.4mm active permits, over 25% of the current housing has been built since 2010 the consensus is, Texas is going to be experiencing a surplus of housing, coinciding with the highest number of layoffs in 2026, with 30,000 workers displaced the threat to the residential single family home real estate market is beginning to show and the highest interest rates in over a decade are all leading this market to the tipping point.

Now Multiply that buy 3 and this is where the problems really converge. The commercial real estate market (CRE) has a valuation 3x larger. 32k commercial properties for sale with 20,000 units for lease, half of those have been on the market for over a year, that’s a lot of cash flow going uncollected for more than 12 months. The market is saturated with commercial space; millions of square feet going unused. Many of these properties are new construction. Financed with building loans and leveraged against existing properties that have been losing equity over the last 5 years. it seems like something here needs to crack. There are over 950 billion of CRE loans maturing this year with rates between 6.5-8% this is going to push expenses much higher for owners/buyers and inreturn to any business that lease this space, 3000 people and 1500 businesses are filling for bankruptcy a month in Texas. Over 40k businesses have filed over the trailing 12 months, one in fifteen bankruptcies is filed in Texas. This is an ominous sign of the current Texas economy.

what are your thoughts, and what's the next domino to fall?

• Buyer representation agreements are now mandatory before touring homes, a rule created after the 2024 NAR legal settlement, and many buyers are signing binding contracts without understanding them.
• These agreements can include long lockups, high commissions, junk fees, and obligations, even if the buyer leases instead of buys, trapping consumers with agents they don’t want.
• Agents often present the contracts at the doorstep right before a tour, giving buyers little time to read dense legal language or negotiate terms.
• The agreements vary widely, exclusive vs. non‑exclusive, one day to one year, negotiable fees, but buyers rarely realize how much is negotiable or how costly termination can be.
• Consumer advocates say the new system hasn’t lowered commissions or improved transparency, and buyers must now interview agents, scrutinize terms, and understand they could owe thousands if they sign blindly.

Over the past 40 years the US dollar has lost nearly 70% of its purchasing power and Boomers were able to buy homes 10–15 years earlier in life than Millennials. They lived in a time where the dollar had roughly three times the buying power it has today.

More buyers entered the market last week.

Home buyers are increasingly regaining the upper hand in most major U.S. metro areas, but the amount of leverage they wield depends entirely on where they’re buying.

The second quarter marked the most buyer-friendly spring for the U.S. housing market in eight years as the national median listing price fell about 2.5% from last year, according to a report released Tuesday by Realtor.com. However, while buyers have a lot of leverage in Southern cities like Miami, New Orleans and Orlando, sellers continue to retain the upper hand in many Midwestern cities like Indianapolis, Kansas City and Milwaukee, noted the report’s author, Jake Krimmel, a senior economist for the Austin-based real estate site.

“Two-thirds of Midwestern metros are still tilted toward sellers, and not one has crossed into buyer’s territory,” Krimmel said in a statement. “Meanwhile, a buyer shopping in the South is working with nearly the opposite market and it’s the clearest regional split we’ve measured.”

Read more on Fast Company.

Been tracking a few zip codes out of habit and the pattern is getting hard to ignore. Listings that sat for 60 days, took a price cut of 20k or 30k, and are still just sitting there. Open house weekends, relisted under slightly different addresses, the whole playbook. Buyers are not biting. What gets me is the sellers clearly still think 2021 is waiting around the corner if they just hold on long enough. But the rate environment is not the same, the pool of qualified buyers has shrunk, and the people who could theoretically afford these homes at these prices are already locked into their own sub3% mortgages somewhere else.

The withdrawal thing the article from a few weeks back touched on is real too. Sellers pulling listings rather than actually meeting the market, which just freezes everything. Inventory goes back down, prices look sticky on paper, but nothing is actually transacting. That is not a healthy market. That is a standoff.

Curious if people in other metros are seeing the same thing or if this is more regional. Some markets seem genuinely stuck in a weird limbo that feels unsustainable but also keeps not breaking the way you would expect.

Looks like condo prices are falling fast and some are back to 2006 levels which is crazy. How low can condo prices go?

https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/20/oh-dear-condo-prices-fell-by-15-to-33-in-30-bigger-cities-already-some-dropped-back-to-2006-levels/

Gov. Mikie Sherrill signed the FAIR Act, a new state law that restricts landlords from using rent‑setting algorithms, especially tools like RealPage, which officials say have been used to coordinate rent hikes.

The law:

• Bans using sensitive market data (rental prices, supply levels, occupancy, lease‑end dates) in rent‑setting algorithms
• Prohibits landlords from coordinating rent increases through shared software
• Takes effect next summer

Sherrill calls algorithmic pricing “collusion by algorithm” and says it’s worsening the state’s affordability crisis.

What's the word on the street? Share your questions, comments, and concerns below.