Almost as traditional, but one day later, because I was listening to some nice Heavy Metal music in Master of Rock in the Czech Republic, I posted my weekly Metagame breakdown.

This past weekend, we had the Pro Tour, and its metagame looked broadly similar to what we see on MTGO, with one big exception: Broodscale Combo was 12% of the field in Amsterdam, compared with roughly 2.5% online, and it put three pilots into the Top 8. I expect this deck will skyrocket in popularity over the coming weeks.

From my point of view, the format looks healthy right now. There are plenty of viable decks, none of them dominate, and rogue builds still take trophies. Azorius Energy won two Challenges from under 1% of the metagame.

What the Pro Tour also showed is that the field is predictable even when the results are not. People brought roughly what everyone expected, and then the two most-played decks, Boros Energy and Izzet Affinity, both finished under 50%, while the title went to Simic Neoform at 4% of the field. For a pro, predictability is useful; you know what you are preparing for. For a newcomer, it is a brutal format, but at least legible; you can pick a deck consciously instead of guessing. But is a metagame this easy to predict, a healthy one? Or maybe it's too boring?

Traditionally, for anyone who wants the video version with my commentary, here is the YouTube link. If you prefer text with the full charts and figures, it is all on my Substack. I post on X most days, too, mostly league results and smaller data bits that don't make it into the weekly write-up.

TL;DR

Yuuki Ichikawa won the Pro Tour with Simic Neoform, going 8-2 in Modern Constructed before taking the title.

The two most-played decks at the Pro Tour underperformed. Boros Energy and Izzet Affinity tied for the largest share of the field at 13% each, and both finished under 50% on match win rate. This is not a surprise cause everybody prepares against those decks.

Aggro owned the MTGO trophies. The archetype won 9 of the 16 Challenges and reached the Top 8 of every event, even as its overall share slipped to 28%.

No single deck ran away with the window. Affinity, Prowess, Amulet Titan, and Azorius Energy each won two events; eight more decks won one apiece.

Two of the five most-played decks could not close. Eldrazi Tron and Goryo's Vengeance reached the Top 8 repeatedly but won nothing, which earns them the Needs Attention tag.

Domain Zoo held up in both datasets. It went 53% across eight pilots at the Pro Tour and posts a 55% deck win rate online with one Challenge trophy.

The Pro Tour: Amsterdam

Yuuki Ichikawa took Simic Neoform to the title. The deck was only 4% of the field but was the best-performing popular deck of the weekend, with a 60% match win rate (95% CI 51 to 68, n=124). Lorenzo Gruppi was the finalist on Broodscale Combo. The final standings ran Ichikawa first, Gruppi second, then Timo Bertram (Boros Energy) and Bernardo Torres (Esper Goryo's) as the two semifinalists, with Ken Yukuhiro, Mattia Oneto, Alex Rohan, and Eduardo Sajgalik filling out the quarterfinals. Read by a constructed deck, the Top 8 was three copies of Broodscale Combo, two of Boros Energy, and one each of Esper Goryo's, Eldrazi Rigging, and Simic Neoform.

What people brought

Boros Energy and Izzet Affinity co-headlined at 13% apiece, with Broodscale Combo close behind at 12%, then Eldrazi Tron at 10% and Esper Goryo's at 9%. There was no breakout deck, and the field looked close to what the preceding weeks' MTGO metagame analysis predicted.

What actually performed

The two decks that defined the field were the two that struggled. Boros Energy finished at 45% (95% CI 39 to 50, n=324) and Izzet Affinity at 46% (95% CI 41 to 51, n=366), with intervals sitting almost entirely below 50%. At the other end, the fringe carried the weekend: Eldrazi Rigging led at 64% (95% CI 54 to 74, n=84) and Simic Neoform followed at 60%. Broodscale Combo came in around even at 49% (95% CI 44 to 55, n=315) and still put three pilots into the Top 8. Domain Zoo went 53% (95% CI 41 to 65, n=62) across eight pilots, above both format pillars.

The MTGO Challenges: sixteen events, by archetype

Sixteen Challenges, eight of the 64-player format and eight of the 32-player format. Delta means Top 32 event frequency minus metagame share, so a high delta says a deck shows up in results more often than its popularity predicts. This window's median delta among eligible decks was 55, and the median Top8-to-Top32 conversion was 29, the two thresholds that decide the Overperformer tag.

Aggro (28% of the field)

Aggro is the story of the window. It won 9 of the 16 Challenges and reached the Top 8 of every event, even though its overall share slipped to 28%. Boros Energy is the most-played deck in the format at 11% and reached the Top 8 in 81% of events, but converted just one trophy, a 1.1% win-per-Top32 rate, on a 48% win rate (95% CI 45 to 51, n=1007). Affinity is the better-finishing aggro deck: from 6% of the field, it took two trophies, cleared both thresholds as an Overperformer with a delta near plus 82 and a 37% conversion, and posted a flat 50% win rate (95% CI 46 to 54, n=522). Prowess also won two events from 6% of the field and a rising trend, but its Top8-to-Top32 conversion of 24% sits below the median. Its win rate is 50% (95% CI 46 to 54, n=520).

Graveyard (20% of the field)

Graveyard climbed to number two by share and reached the Top 8 in 69% of events, but it won exactly one of the sixteen. Living End is the engine of the rise: Top 8 in 44% of events at a 33% conversion, an even 50% win rate (95% CI 46 to 54, n=760), and a rising trend, which clears both thresholds and makes it an Overperformer despite zero wins. Goryo's Vengeance is the cautionary tale: 75% Top 32 presence but an 11% conversion rate, zero trophies, and a falling trend: 50% win rate (95% CI 46 to 54, n=553). Grixis Reanimator is the one that actually closed, one trophy and the best raw rate of the three at 56% (95% CI 50 to 62, n=280), though from a thinner Top 8 presence.

Combo (15% of the field)

Combo took three trophies, the most after Aggro. Ruby Storm leads it: 81% Top 32 presence, one trophy, the best Top8-to-Top32 conversion in the field at 45%, and the best win rate of any high-volume deck at 56% (95% CI 52 to 60, n=501), on a rising trend, which makes it an Overperformer. Amulet Titan is the efficiency deck. From 3% of the field, it won two events at an 8.7% win-per-Top32 rate, the highest in the format, with a 55% win rate (95% CI 49 to 61, n=274), though its conversion sits right at the median, so it lands Neutral. Broodscale Combo, strong in Amsterdam, was quiet online: no trophies and WR 49% (95% CI 42 to 56, n=220).

Ramp (15% of the field)

Ramp is back near 15%, and Eldrazi Tron is the reason. It posted the highest delta in the entire field (+ 84) reached the Top 32 in 94% of events and the Top 8 in 56%, and won zero of the sixteen with 49% win rate (95% CI 46 to 52, n=895). Eldrazi Ramp is the smaller sibling that did close, one trophy from 1.5% of the field with a 44% conversion and a 51% win rate (95% CI 43 to 59, n=131). Below the encounter threshold, the various other Eldrazi shells round out the archetype's resurgence without demanding preparation on their own.

Midrange (11% of the field)

Midrange reached the Top 32 of every event and took two trophies, which is more than Graveyard or Ramp managed. Dimir Midrange is the most-played at 3% and is on the rise, with a 69% Top 32 presence and a 51% win rate (95% CI 45 to 57, n=241), but it reached zero Top 8s this window. Domain Zoo posts a 55% deck win rate this window (95% CI 48 to 62, n=205), one of the better rates among the midrange decks. It converted that into one Challenge trophy, with a 50% Top 32 event frequency, a 25% Top 8 frequency, and a 33% Top 8-to-Top 32 conversion. Yawgmoth rounds out the top three: one trophy, a 57% conversion, and the best raw rate of the group at 57% (95% CI 50 to 64, n=174).

Control (8% of the field)

Control reached the Top 32 in about seven of ten events but won nothing. Land Destruction is the most-played control shell at 4%, with a 69% Top 32 presence, but an 18% conversion and a 46% win rate (95% CI 41 to 51, n=362), on a falling trend. Azorius Control has the profile of a fine deck, a 55% win rate (95% CI 47 to 63, n=146), but it is not finishing, and its share is falling. Jeskai Control is thinner still, a 51% win rate (95% CI 42 to 60, n=114) with no Top 8s. The Control archetype is well-positioned on paper but poorly positioned when it comes to the events score.

Blink (3% of the field)

Blink is the smallest tracked archetype at 3% and won nothing, but its two main builds convert what little presence they get. Esper Blink posted a 44% Top8-to-Top32 conversion and a 52% win rate (95% CI 44 to 60, n=147), and Azorius Blink a 29% conversion with the same 52% rate (95% CI 44 to 60, n=133). Both are falling. Nothing here to specifically prepare for, but the conversion says the decks are fine when they show up.

On the radar

Two decks below the 5% encounter threshold still won events. Azorius Energy took two trophies from under 1% of the metagame, with a 25% win-per-Top32 rate and a 56% win rate (95% CI 45 to 66, n=80). Naya Scapeshift won one event from 0.4% of the field, for a 53% win rate on a small sample (95% CI: 37-68, n=35). Neither is something you build a game plan around, but a trophy from that little share is the kind of thing that is invisible until it beats you.

The big picture

Both datasets point in the same direction. The decks that define the metagame by volume, Boros Energy and Izzet Affinity, are not the decks winning at the highest rate. Aggro as a whole took most of the trophies online, but no single aggro deck ran away with it, and the format's two highest-presence non-aggro decks, Eldrazi Tron and Goryo's, could not convert Top 8s into wins. For a Zoo pilot, the takeaway is steady: prepare for the volume, which is Boros, Eldrazi Tron, and the graveyard decks, respect the combo matchups where the games are fast, and know the deck is holding its own in the results that count.

Data note: win-rate intervals use Wilson 95% confidence intervals. Challenge conversion and delta remain the primary performance signals.

By Karol Małota

aka WarLord1986pl / TribalFlamesInYourFace

Hey all, I've never met a fringe new card that I didn't want to burn some Play Points trying to make in Modern, so I wanted to take a few minutes to talk about some of the spoilers from the weekend!

Reality Fracture

• [[Enlightened Confidant]] - White Bob is definitely interesting, and there's clearly some nice synergy with [[Guide of Souls]] amongst other lifegain friends. It triggering on the first end step it comes down also solves the problem of sorcery speed removal/needing to untap with it to net value. But at the same time, it's not exactly the most high impact card, and can be pretty depressing if you play it late and either can't enable it or can't attack with it. Still, a really unique card advantage for white and worth keeping in mind for deckbuilding!

• Repeated Prepared Creatures - [[Paradox Shaper]] and [[Stingerquill Voxmancer]] are both very interesting as low cost creatures that trigger prepared every turn, meaning that you're always getting at least one spell a turn out of these (relevant for Prowess, Erayo, Cori-Steel, etc.) Neither is very high power, but they're decent enablers, and being able to trigger non-creature spells/repeat spell triggers every turn is very unique design space.

• [[Liliana, the Faultless]] - Combination Soul Warden/Mother of Runes that is pretty cool overall, but at the same time isn't overly busted. Leonardo Cauldron seems like the best home for it by far, and Energy may be happy to have it as an additional Guide effect for triggering Ocelot Pride and other stuff.

• [[Ajani Resolute]] - The third and final kinda cute lifegain card from this bunch. It's far from overly exciting and kind of requires you to be pretty far ahead before it does anything too strong, but it's still a kinda cool flex card with decent synergy.

• [[The Theorist, Jace Beleren]] - Definitely the most EDH-coded Planeswalker we've seen in a while, but I'm still kinda interested in it on the basis that it draws you cards steadily while protecting itself. Will it be great? Probably not. Will it be ok enough to try amongst UW Control's mix of planeswalker mush? Sure!

Star Trek

• [[Captain James T. Kirk]] - This is pretty sweet when paired with Arena of Glory, and really nuts if you're empty handed when you do that. All of its modes are things Boros Energy is happy to be doing, but whether it's worth the spot remains to be seen.

• [[Salt Vampire]] - A pretty cool riff on Kitesail Freebooter esque cards. In this case you're always taking the card you want forever, and your opponent gets the card draw up front. Kinda cool to punish with a Bowmasters out, and the 2/2 Lifelink isn't terrible either.

The Hobbit

• [[Gollum, Riddle Master]] - We've been slowly building up a card pool of pretty powerful aggressive Black cards, and this adds to the mix. Really sweet if you name Odd and just get to draw a card from your opponent Bolt/Pushing it, and a unique kind of tax effect for Black if it sits on the board long enough. I kinda want to jam it in Necro and see if it does anything worthwhile there.

• [[The Queen of Dale]] - Really unique tax card that feels something like a white Ledger Shredder. Again it gets value even if your opponent kills it right away, so I think it has a little something going on for it.

• [[The Eagles Are Coming!]] - I'm surprised this one hasn't been mentioned yet in this sub, as its synergy with Solitude is friggin gross. You can evoke a Solitude, then with the evoke trigger on the stack, return it with Eagles, and end the exchange with your Solitude back in your hand, your opponent's creature exiled, and a 4/4 flyer. It's not too bad with the Lorwyn Eclipsed elementals or Riddler either. I think we'll be seeing this one.

And that's it for now! Are any of these going to take the format by storm? Probably not (unless it's Eagles), but these are all some pretty interesting cards that can play some good roles in decks and/or do something we haven't had before (like the repeated Prepared creatures).

So i saw teferis puzzle box and I knew I needed a brew with it.

Its a heavy control shell

deck list (mox field)

I just wanna know how playable it is and how it possibly could be more rcq level

I haven’t played modern in around 6 years now but Knight of the Reliquary is one of my favourite cards. Is the deck vaguely playable or not?
Elven Raft-Steerer

https://moxfield.com/decks/NHHeH5ns7UedG9jCteaNbg Here's the deck, the goal is to basically build a stupid strong Eldrazi angel and win. This is my first Modern deck.

I’ve got some RCQs coming up and want to test drive Grixis Reanimator and Esper Goryo’s, and two of the ~12 ish people that attend these have recently picked up Boros Ponza. I haven’t played these matchups much, what are some good tech pieces I can include to help out in this m/u?

Hello,

Just wondering if anyone knows a good spot for modern in calgary, Alberta. Preferably a place that fires kinda regularly.

Hello! Made a reddit account to post this, but I've read this sub many times over the past few years as I've got more into modern; love the data that gets shared here. I've played Boros Energy quite a lot since MH3 came out, and have qualified for a couple RCs and a MTGO modern Showcase Qualifier with it. Since the Phlage ban, I've been playing Reckless Pyrosurfer in a much more low to the ground build, and I've written a primer for the shell for the Boros Energy discord.

With Martin Juza being the only 8-0 on Day 1 of the PT, I thought I should share my primer to a broader community. His registered modern list is <10 cards different from the builds I've been on! I was very excited to see surfer registered at all, and was over the moon after day 1. Needless to say, Day 2's 1-7 completed the rollercoaster experience, unfortunately.

I elaborate more in the doc, but essentially, I believe that Boros has lost its grinding power now that it lacks the best midrange finisher ever printed, and thus just shoving more threes and fours into the deck to try to replace Phlage's power is a losing game. Cards that focus on attacking and pushing damage are notably better without the titan on the other side of the battlefield, as well. These two points led me to max out Voices of Victory, and then try Reckless Pyrosurfer and more Dalkovan Encampments and Arenas of Glory to complement them.

Please give the primer a read and let me know if you have any questions! I'm also going to start streaming on Twitch if all goes well, so give me a follow if you're interested in seeing some surfing and other MTGO content :)

Surf's Up!

Hi folks. I haven't played Modern since 2019, and I know the format's very different now. I used to be primarily an Infect/Death's Shadow player, though I really loved the older versions of UR/Jeskai Tempo; I just really love decks based around tripping an opponent while your primary Little Dude goes to work.

I'm getting back into Magic again thanks to some friends, and I'm absolutely in love with Moonshadow as a card, but the results that I've seen don't look too impressive for any of the three shells I've seen it in, those being Dimir Tempo, 4c Death's Shadow, and Hollow One.

Now, to be clear, I'm not aiming for PT wins. This is just to have fun at FNM now that I have time and a budget to put towards Magic again, so a solid T2 deck that can consistently 4-1 or better at FNM with time put in is fine with me. Of the ones I've looked at, Dimir Tempo seems like it has the most fun gameplan, but it also looks like it has the weakest results. Is that because it's genuinely the worst, or because it needs the tightest play?

I'm a firm believer that you should love playing your deck even if it takes time to learn; that's what motivates you to learn in the first place! ... Buuut I also don't want to drop a thousand dollars on something completely left behind and end up with a six month streak of 1-2-drops.

Do any of the Moonshadow decks have legs at that level of play? Or is it all just kind of a pile of mediocrity for an overhyped card?

Because my backup plan is probably just to turn to the dark side and play Eldrazi tron.

Were there really 0 Dimir liststs? i get it that the deck overlaps with Esper Goryo's in many ways and Esper also has Solitude + a gambreaking potential to drop a bomb on T3 but still...

Is the deck really worth 0 representation? i thought it was a tier 2 deck consistently for quite some time... am i missing anything?

Hi all, I've started playing modern on MTGO recently and wanted some tips on good sideboard options and such in mardu colours. I've been tinkering with a pixie list and am having some luck but think my deck still needs some tuning.

https://moxfield.com/decks/enOfARPco3ONDDqBarN0WA

Edit: Also I have an abzan version: https://moxfield.com/decks/o4KfAY7bl3Osjk9O6_AhEg

https://www.reddit.com/r/magicTCG/comments/1v1ohtd/hob_elven_raft_helmsman/

Elf Raft Helmsman - {2}{U}

Creature - Elf Pilot (Uncommon)

Landfall - Whenever a land you control enters, choose one:

• Tap target creature an opponent controls.
• Untap target creature you control.

3/2

It's going to be so dogwater and I'm gonna lose every game but I'm going to play Bant Knightfall (company ofc) without Retreat and I'm gonna like it

Im trying to decide which deck to assemble in paper, what are the main pros and cons to both?

Edit: should also mention a bit more.

I was originally going to play dimir frog, but i dont want to commit that much to a deck. I still really want to play with frog and these 3 decks seem like the next best options that are meta relevant.

Grixis seems the closest and shares a lot of cards, although ofc, its a very different game plan.

Goryos has a lot of the interactions i like with riddler and i like the blink engine with solitude etc.

Ive also considered esper blink.

Tbh, im mainly looking for something kind of grindy but still meta.

Hi all, I've been playing for 6 months and interested in getting into Modern! For reference I've been playing a good bit of Arena but mostly Commander.

I've been playing cEDH pretty heavily the last two months and really enjoy my Kefka midrange/control deck.

I'm curious with the current meta what would be a good 1-3 decks to explore that are a similar combo/control archetype?

Alternatively I've thought of going a different direction from my cEDH style and I think that Eldrazi tron might be fun.

Would love any recs from the community! For reference I plan to goldfish a bit then rent a deck on MTGO before going at it in paper. Thanks!

https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/7881493#paper

Can u guys tell me why this Ruby storm player has confusion in the ranks + enchanted evening in his sideboard!? I cant figure out why ...

Hi from Spain guys, I was playing Burn, Goblins Combo, Old Hollow One and Old Dregde. I like play FNM but i dont want to spend lot of money in a new deck. What is better deck to build? I like something fun to play.

New Dregde with Fénix: https://mtgtop8.com/event?e=88041&d=867935&f=MO

New spicy Hollow One:

https://mtgtop8.com/event?e=88139&d=868785&f=MO

UR Cutter: https://mtgtop8.com/event?e=88452&d=871325&f=MO

For those who don't know, Magic Online has a mode called Tournament Practice. It's ostensibly supposed to be for testing decks before taking them into a league or challenge, but a lot of people use the mode for playing off-beat strategies in a low-stakes environment.

I was in the mood to play some burn, so I built this cheap Mono Red Burn list and took it into Tournament Practice. I went against some pretty neat decks. One was a UW Caw-Go deck running four copies of [[Squadron Hawk]], the other was a Mono-White deck built around Gideon planeswalkers. Both games were fun and were pretty close. I'm thinking I'll try some other cheap strategies in the future like Infect, Stompy, or Bogles.

If you've never played the Tournament Practice queue on Magic Online, I recommend checking it out. Buy a few tickets (or use Cardhoarder's free rental program) and build something you like. It's a lot of fun.

I just won my first rcq after trying over 10 times this season. I’ll be going to LA in October for the rc and I’m wondering if anyone has suggestions for how to stay fresh and sideboard correctly for a meta like that. Thanks!
Here’s the list I won with: deck list

Edit: I just played my first challenge on MTGO! Name: JDunny4. I got 10th place, going 5-2, missing top 8 only due to my OMW% being less than the other 5-2’s who made top 8. I lost to domain zoo and eldrazi aggro, both of which made top 8.

Hey oh, I used to play modern back in like 2013/2014. I played UR pyromancer Ascensicon storm and Kiki pod back then. Any decks similar to those in todays modern environment?

https://www.reddit.com/r/magicTCG/s/Rt8ldfQcg5

Looks like an interesting option for 8shadow

Life loss fuels [[Death's Shadow]], mill fuels [[Moonshadow]]

3cmc so you can target it with [[Unearth]]

Hello everyone,

I come to you wondering where the Sentinel has gone.
Back at the release of MH2 and for quite a while, it was considered a crazy one drop, even one of the best one drop. But today, it's only presence is the rare Hammer time and I was wondering why?

Is it because Guide + Pride is just so good that you don't have room for the Sentinel?
Is it because it doesn't have a home that makes sense for it?
Or is it because it just read better than it plays?

Thanks for your answers!

Would Fires of Invention allow you to cast Living End straight from your hand instead of cascading into it? And if so, why are there no decks built around this combo? I understand you would have to hard draw the Living End but surely you could play other win cons (possibly other suspend cards).

Please go easy, I'm mostly an Arena player so I don't have great intuition for Modern.