r/ModernMagic • u/No-Bet7157 • 12h ago
Article MTGO Modern Breakdown: Ichikawa wins on 4% of the field, Boros and Affinity flop in Amsterdam, Aggro dominates the Challenges
Almost as traditional, but one day later, because I was listening to some nice Heavy Metal music in Master of Rock in the Czech Republic, I posted my weekly Metagame breakdown.
This past weekend, we had the Pro Tour, and its metagame looked broadly similar to what we see on MTGO, with one big exception: Broodscale Combo was 12% of the field in Amsterdam, compared with roughly 2.5% online, and it put three pilots into the Top 8. I expect this deck will skyrocket in popularity over the coming weeks.
From my point of view, the format looks healthy right now. There are plenty of viable decks, none of them dominate, and rogue builds still take trophies. Azorius Energy won two Challenges from under 1% of the metagame.
What the Pro Tour also showed is that the field is predictable even when the results are not. People brought roughly what everyone expected, and then the two most-played decks, Boros Energy and Izzet Affinity, both finished under 50%, while the title went to Simic Neoform at 4% of the field. For a pro, predictability is useful; you know what you are preparing for. For a newcomer, it is a brutal format, but at least legible; you can pick a deck consciously instead of guessing. But is a metagame this easy to predict, a healthy one? Or maybe it's too boring?
Traditionally, for anyone who wants the video version with my commentary, here is the YouTube link. If you prefer text with the full charts and figures, it is all on my Substack. I post on X most days, too, mostly league results and smaller data bits that don't make it into the weekly write-up.
TL;DR
Yuuki Ichikawa won the Pro Tour with Simic Neoform, going 8-2 in Modern Constructed before taking the title.
The two most-played decks at the Pro Tour underperformed. Boros Energy and Izzet Affinity tied for the largest share of the field at 13% each, and both finished under 50% on match win rate. This is not a surprise cause everybody prepares against those decks.
Aggro owned the MTGO trophies. The archetype won 9 of the 16 Challenges and reached the Top 8 of every event, even as its overall share slipped to 28%.
No single deck ran away with the window. Affinity, Prowess, Amulet Titan, and Azorius Energy each won two events; eight more decks won one apiece.
Two of the five most-played decks could not close. Eldrazi Tron and Goryo's Vengeance reached the Top 8 repeatedly but won nothing, which earns them the Needs Attention tag.
Domain Zoo held up in both datasets. It went 53% across eight pilots at the Pro Tour and posts a 55% deck win rate online with one Challenge trophy.
The Pro Tour: Amsterdam
Yuuki Ichikawa took Simic Neoform to the title. The deck was only 4% of the field but was the best-performing popular deck of the weekend, with a 60% match win rate (95% CI 51 to 68, n=124). Lorenzo Gruppi was the finalist on Broodscale Combo. The final standings ran Ichikawa first, Gruppi second, then Timo Bertram (Boros Energy) and Bernardo Torres (Esper Goryo's) as the two semifinalists, with Ken Yukuhiro, Mattia Oneto, Alex Rohan, and Eduardo Sajgalik filling out the quarterfinals. Read by a constructed deck, the Top 8 was three copies of Broodscale Combo, two of Boros Energy, and one each of Esper Goryo's, Eldrazi Rigging, and Simic Neoform.
What people brought
Boros Energy and Izzet Affinity co-headlined at 13% apiece, with Broodscale Combo close behind at 12%, then Eldrazi Tron at 10% and Esper Goryo's at 9%. There was no breakout deck, and the field looked close to what the preceding weeks' MTGO metagame analysis predicted.
What actually performed
The two decks that defined the field were the two that struggled. Boros Energy finished at 45% (95% CI 39 to 50, n=324) and Izzet Affinity at 46% (95% CI 41 to 51, n=366), with intervals sitting almost entirely below 50%. At the other end, the fringe carried the weekend: Eldrazi Rigging led at 64% (95% CI 54 to 74, n=84) and Simic Neoform followed at 60%. Broodscale Combo came in around even at 49% (95% CI 44 to 55, n=315) and still put three pilots into the Top 8. Domain Zoo went 53% (95% CI 41 to 65, n=62) across eight pilots, above both format pillars.
The MTGO Challenges: sixteen events, by archetype
Sixteen Challenges, eight of the 64-player format and eight of the 32-player format. Delta means Top 32 event frequency minus metagame share, so a high delta says a deck shows up in results more often than its popularity predicts. This window's median delta among eligible decks was 55, and the median Top8-to-Top32 conversion was 29, the two thresholds that decide the Overperformer tag.
Aggro (28% of the field)
Aggro is the story of the window. It won 9 of the 16 Challenges and reached the Top 8 of every event, even though its overall share slipped to 28%. Boros Energy is the most-played deck in the format at 11% and reached the Top 8 in 81% of events, but converted just one trophy, a 1.1% win-per-Top32 rate, on a 48% win rate (95% CI 45 to 51, n=1007). Affinity is the better-finishing aggro deck: from 6% of the field, it took two trophies, cleared both thresholds as an Overperformer with a delta near plus 82 and a 37% conversion, and posted a flat 50% win rate (95% CI 46 to 54, n=522). Prowess also won two events from 6% of the field and a rising trend, but its Top8-to-Top32 conversion of 24% sits below the median. Its win rate is 50% (95% CI 46 to 54, n=520).
Graveyard (20% of the field)
Graveyard climbed to number two by share and reached the Top 8 in 69% of events, but it won exactly one of the sixteen. Living End is the engine of the rise: Top 8 in 44% of events at a 33% conversion, an even 50% win rate (95% CI 46 to 54, n=760), and a rising trend, which clears both thresholds and makes it an Overperformer despite zero wins. Goryo's Vengeance is the cautionary tale: 75% Top 32 presence but an 11% conversion rate, zero trophies, and a falling trend: 50% win rate (95% CI 46 to 54, n=553). Grixis Reanimator is the one that actually closed, one trophy and the best raw rate of the three at 56% (95% CI 50 to 62, n=280), though from a thinner Top 8 presence.
Combo (15% of the field)
Combo took three trophies, the most after Aggro. Ruby Storm leads it: 81% Top 32 presence, one trophy, the best Top8-to-Top32 conversion in the field at 45%, and the best win rate of any high-volume deck at 56% (95% CI 52 to 60, n=501), on a rising trend, which makes it an Overperformer. Amulet Titan is the efficiency deck. From 3% of the field, it won two events at an 8.7% win-per-Top32 rate, the highest in the format, with a 55% win rate (95% CI 49 to 61, n=274), though its conversion sits right at the median, so it lands Neutral. Broodscale Combo, strong in Amsterdam, was quiet online: no trophies and WR 49% (95% CI 42 to 56, n=220).
Ramp (15% of the field)
Ramp is back near 15%, and Eldrazi Tron is the reason. It posted the highest delta in the entire field (+ 84) reached the Top 32 in 94% of events and the Top 8 in 56%, and won zero of the sixteen with 49% win rate (95% CI 46 to 52, n=895). Eldrazi Ramp is the smaller sibling that did close, one trophy from 1.5% of the field with a 44% conversion and a 51% win rate (95% CI 43 to 59, n=131). Below the encounter threshold, the various other Eldrazi shells round out the archetype's resurgence without demanding preparation on their own.
Midrange (11% of the field)
Midrange reached the Top 32 of every event and took two trophies, which is more than Graveyard or Ramp managed. Dimir Midrange is the most-played at 3% and is on the rise, with a 69% Top 32 presence and a 51% win rate (95% CI 45 to 57, n=241), but it reached zero Top 8s this window. Domain Zoo posts a 55% deck win rate this window (95% CI 48 to 62, n=205), one of the better rates among the midrange decks. It converted that into one Challenge trophy, with a 50% Top 32 event frequency, a 25% Top 8 frequency, and a 33% Top 8-to-Top 32 conversion. Yawgmoth rounds out the top three: one trophy, a 57% conversion, and the best raw rate of the group at 57% (95% CI 50 to 64, n=174).
Control (8% of the field)
Control reached the Top 32 in about seven of ten events but won nothing. Land Destruction is the most-played control shell at 4%, with a 69% Top 32 presence, but an 18% conversion and a 46% win rate (95% CI 41 to 51, n=362), on a falling trend. Azorius Control has the profile of a fine deck, a 55% win rate (95% CI 47 to 63, n=146), but it is not finishing, and its share is falling. Jeskai Control is thinner still, a 51% win rate (95% CI 42 to 60, n=114) with no Top 8s. The Control archetype is well-positioned on paper but poorly positioned when it comes to the events score.
Blink (3% of the field)
Blink is the smallest tracked archetype at 3% and won nothing, but its two main builds convert what little presence they get. Esper Blink posted a 44% Top8-to-Top32 conversion and a 52% win rate (95% CI 44 to 60, n=147), and Azorius Blink a 29% conversion with the same 52% rate (95% CI 44 to 60, n=133). Both are falling. Nothing here to specifically prepare for, but the conversion says the decks are fine when they show up.
On the radar
Two decks below the 5% encounter threshold still won events. Azorius Energy took two trophies from under 1% of the metagame, with a 25% win-per-Top32 rate and a 56% win rate (95% CI 45 to 66, n=80). Naya Scapeshift won one event from 0.4% of the field, for a 53% win rate on a small sample (95% CI: 37-68, n=35). Neither is something you build a game plan around, but a trophy from that little share is the kind of thing that is invisible until it beats you.
The big picture
Both datasets point in the same direction. The decks that define the metagame by volume, Boros Energy and Izzet Affinity, are not the decks winning at the highest rate. Aggro as a whole took most of the trophies online, but no single aggro deck ran away with it, and the format's two highest-presence non-aggro decks, Eldrazi Tron and Goryo's, could not convert Top 8s into wins. For a Zoo pilot, the takeaway is steady: prepare for the volume, which is Boros, Eldrazi Tron, and the graveyard decks, respect the combo matchups where the games are fast, and know the deck is holding its own in the results that count.
Data note: win-rate intervals use Wilson 95% confidence intervals. Challenge conversion and delta remain the primary performance signals.
By Karol Małota
aka WarLord1986pl / TribalFlamesInYourFace