Before going through B.C. from north to south, I like to look through the rest of the salmon world. It appears Russia is on track to reach its forecast, which is much lower than recent years, likely due to warm marine temperatures in the western Pacific. Poor Russian production will contribute to what is forecast to be a record low year for global wild salmon production. Markets are already tight and about to get tighter. I expect ex-vessel prices—the dockside prices paid directly to fishers before processing, packaging, etc.—to be good for fishers in B.C., although reduced competition at the processor level will temper this a bit.
Speaking about processors in B.C., there have been some striking changes. First Nations companies have made major investments in Hardy Buoys Seafood and North Delta Seafoods. It is my understanding that this trend is poised to continue.
Anyway, back to my short survey of the rest of the wild salmon world. Japan is forecast to again have a very poor return, again due to marine conditions in the western Pacific.
Harken back to what I said in my previous blog about the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). It is currently benefiting salmon rearing in the eastern Pacific and B.C., and punishing those rearing in the western Pacific returning to Russia and Japan, but it will inevitably switch back and again have a negative impact on our salmon. Scientists are watching the PDO closely as they are expecting such a shift. I shudder to think of the impact on our salmon if this occurs in the next few months, as some scientists are suggesting—coinciding with what is expected to be a very strong El Niño. However, my most current reading of the situation suggests that the current negative phase benefitting B.C. salmon will continue.
The graphic above illustrates what I have been discussing in this, and the last two, blogs. Red is warmer than average, blue cooler, and white average. Salmon like average or cooler waters in the North Pacific. If you are a Russian or Japanese salmon, the environment has been difficult the last three years, but for many species of Alaskan and B.C. salmon, times have been good in a relatively compressed area. Credit: Copernicus Marine Service
Continuing with my survey of non-B.C. salmon fisheries, Alaska’s Bristol Bay sockeye forecast is a bit off from recent years with a forecast catch of only 30 million sockeye. Test fishing and current fishing patterns appear to confirm the forecast catch, although the return itself will likely be larger than forecast. The sockeye are smaller than predicted which also suggests that the return will be larger than forecast. Very poor chinook returns to some of these systems have curtailed early fishing. Unlike Canada, Alaska has established escapement goals for salmon caught as bycatch; anything that threatens achieving those goals must be addressed.
The famous Copper River sockeye fishery, which typically delivers the first sockeye of the year, with much fanfare and high prices, has been struggling. First, poor chinook numbers (a concern across Alaska because subsistence catch—enjoyed by all Alaskans—must be protected) limited commercial sockeye fisheries. And then, after a couple of decent early openings, sockeye numbers have sagged and the fishery remains closed.
It is too early to say much about any other Alaskan fisheries or species. Chinook are clearly trending poor-to-very-poor throughout Alaska, sockeye will be good despite Copper River, hatchery pink returns to Prince William Sound are expected to be relatively poor, and it is an off year for Southeast Alaskan pinks. The first couple of openings in SSE, where pinks would have been expected, have been awful. It has me worried about northern B.C. pinks.
Early terminal chum hatchery fisheries suggest the returns to their major hatcheries may be good. This is encouraging as I have often found that when chums do well in Alaska, they seem to do well everywhere, which may support my hypothesis that there is a strong relationship between marine rearing conditions and region wide chum abundance. All of the above, combined with poor Russian and Japanese production of wild salmon, is what is contributing to a very tight global wild salmon market.
Turning to B.C., here are my best guesses for 2026 returns and fisheries.
Northern Troll Fisheries
This fishery mainly focuses on valuable chinook and coho. Their chinook allocation is much higher than their expected catch as concerns about the fisheries’ impacts on West Coast Vancouver Island wild stocks limits northern trollers fishing time. You might reasonably ask why then is the recreational fishery allowed to catch these same chinook the trollers are required not to catch? It is because our current allocation policy gives priority to the recreational sector. This policy is under review, and as you can imagine, it has been very contentious, with First Nations and the commercial sector holding similar views and the recreational sector arguing for the status quo. The federal Fisheries Minister is expected to make a decision this September.
The forecast for chinook abundance on the North Coast ranges from below escapement objectives to well below escapement objectives. Note the difference from Alaska. In Alaska, if a stock doesn’t reach its escapement objective, management actions are required (Note: Canadian-origin stocks caught in Alaska are not given the same care). But in Canada it is ‘we will think about it’.
Coho are much the same. Coho are forecast to be ‘near average’ in the Nass and ‘some concern’ in the Skeena.
Areas 1 and 2 – Haida Gwaii
I anticipate there will be a good return of pink salmon and a terminal seine fishery in Masset Inlet. There should also, hopefully, be a surplus to a few other small streams on the east and west coast of the archipelago. We haven’t seen many chums return to Haida Gwaii since I was in my 30s. It was always one of my favourite fisheries. It was relaxing after the turmoil of all the summer fisheries, although the weather could be challenging at times. They are good memories, but unfortunately, that’s all they are. Only the few of us that are left understand what has been lost.
Area 3 – Nass Region
The forecast for Nass sockeye is good and I see no reason to doubt it. Early numbers are very encouraging. What will limit marine fisheries is concerns for other stocks, species, and allocating the surplus between in-river, marine, and other Nations’ fisheries.
Unlike the rest of B.C., most salmon fisheries within Nisga’a Lisims territory are managed by the Nation under their Treaty with Canada. The one exception is the fishery managed by the Gitanyow in their adjacent territories.
Pink returns to Nass and other streams in Portland Canal are expected to be average. But early fishing suggests otherwise. The first opening was terrible. I expect the forecast is in jeopardy.
The tight global wild salmon market will benefit seine fishermen. When I was unloading seine boats at the Royal plant after a North Coast fishery, I would have to figure out how to unload and re-ice 75 boats within 24 to 48 hours. Believe me, there were many sleepless nights. And my company was responsible for only about 30 per cent of the North Coast seine fleet. I do hope the seine fleet is not disappointed.
This year, maybe 25 to 30 seine boats are expected for the whole North Coast, which is high compared to last few years. My understanding is that Canadian Fish mobilized more of their fleet this year.
So why doesn’t DFO allow them to fish 24/7? I mean, most seine boats can only hold about 15,000 to 20,000 pink salmon. Once full, they have to run to Prince Rupert, unload, and travel back, which can take 20 hours. So, not all 30 boats are fishing at once if fishing is good. Some are fishing, some are travelling, some are unloading.
The reason fishing is restricted is because monitoring of discards, monitoring of compliance with rules associated with discards, and monitoring of escapements of target and non-target species are all insufficient. And this was before this year’s massive DFO cutbacks on monitoring. The result is a significant proportion of the potential catch in 2026 will be foregone even though demand is good, and prices are high.
Please don’t take this as me saying this is all on DFO’s shoulders. Fishermen and processors are equally complicit. Fishermen and processors are wedded to how fisheries were managed 40 years ago. There are many innovative things they could embrace to increase their catch of pinks, reduce their impact on non-target species, and provide DFO and the public with independent measures of their impacts. They refuse to take the lead. Hence, it is hard to have sympathy when they complain.
This season, for the first time in years, the seine fleet will be allowed to retain chums all year. Chum salmon are bycatch, but a highly valuable one, in the seine pink fishery.
Area 4 – Skeena Watershed
The Skeena River sockeye return is expected to be poor, with a forecast of around 1.5 million, well short of the average. However, that is the ‘point’ estimate, the range of possible returns is between 800,000 and 3.3 million. As I write this, Skeena sockeye are doing exceptionally well, leading to lots of excitement that 2026 may see Skeena sockeye numbers that exceed even the upper end of the forecast.
However, the Skeena sockeye return is comprised of almost 30 genetically distinct populations that spawn in very different habitats. The majority of Skeena sockeye return to Babine Lake and its tributaries. It is very early in the season to be seeing a lot of Babine sockeye, so we have to bide our time to see if the current trend holds. But it is indeed encouraging and I am very bullish on the return. I note that the fish are a good size and appear to be taking a more direct route to the mouth of the Skeena. This will decrease Alaskan interceptions and increase the terminal run size. DFO will be under a lot of pressure to fish hard through to August 8th, when the fishery is supposed to close to protect other species and late-timed Babine River sockeye.
The only note of concern I will add is the high levels of in-river migration mortality seen on the Fraser over the past couple of decades now appear to be showing up in northern sockeye. In 2024, 1.2 million Babine sockeye went unaccounted for. Currently, freshwater migration conditions appear to be good.
Unfortunately, if the Skeena sockeye return is as large as it appears, industry will struggle to catch their allowable allocation without fishing almost continuously. There simply are not the boats nor processing infrastructure left to handle this much fish. But fishing 5 to 7 days a week will result in high impacts on non-target species and weaker sockeye populations. DFO has a challenge on their hands.
A very strong year for Skeena pink salmon is anticipated. However, early indications in Alaska and the Nass have me doubting the forecast. But the timing of Skeena pinks overlaps with the very weak Babine River sockeye (which used to be a major driver in Skeena wild sockeye abundance), chums, and steelhead. Therefore, commercial opportunities will be limited. I should add, to avoid confusion, that Babine River sockeye is a later-timed stock that comprises one of the three major sockeye timing groups that spawn in the Babine watershed. The timing of Babine River sockeye is slightly later than spawning channel-enhanced Babine sockeye, although they still overlap. This population, because of its timing, is more vulnerable to Alaskan effort than earlier-timed Skeena sockeye.
Interestingly, the large return of Lakelse pink salmon (a lower tributary of the Skeena) expected last year based on abundances noted in fisheries and the Tyee test fishery either didn’t materialize, or more likely (or hoped), spawned in the mainstream Skeena due to elevated water temperatures in the Lakelse. Changes in our climate are changing salmon behaviour and survival in unexpected ways.
Skeena chums remain depressed. Coho are forecast to be less than target and chinook are forecast to be poor. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this forecast confirmed, considering what we are seeing with chinook in Alaska.
There is no forecast for Skeena steelhead. I anticipate they will again be relatively poor in that steelhead are one of the furthest westward-migrating salmonids and they may have been impacted by the same conditions experienced by Russian salmon. And with the forecast for Alaskan pinks being poor, I would expect we will again see a lot of Alaskan effort in District 104 targeting a mix of higher-valued Canadian sockeye, chums, and coho. This is never good news for steelhead as this effort tends to be concentrated during the peak of their migration timing.
Areas 5 – 10 – Central Coast: 290 salmon streams stretching from the Skeena River in the north to Cape Caution in the south. Communities include Kitkatla, Hartley Bay, Kitimat, Klemtu, Kitasu, Bella Bella, and Bella Coola
It is frustrating for me to discuss Central Coast fisheries because I anticipate that there will be some decent returns of pinks and chums that would have, in the past, supported good fisheries. But, as I said above, DFO will have to fish blind. DFO has gutted their fisheries and escapement monitoring programs in many of the key areas of the Central Coast. And even if there are obvious signs of an abundance of pinks and/or chums, the lack of monitoring means we will know little more than that. Hence, if a manager opens a pink fishery based on obvious signs of abundance, they will not be able to evaluate where the abundance is destined, whether escapement objectives are likely to be achieved, the potential impact on bycatch, and whether the escaping salmon are likely to successfully spawn.
I am particularly concerned about Area 6—the waters around Hartley Bay and Kitamaat. It should see a good return of pink salmon which should allow for fisheries. But a seine fishery can also greatly impact depressed chum populations. I have no idea how, after eliminating the charter patrol operation during the time fishing would be expected, DFO will be able to defend having a fishery. Also, for the first time in my memory, some Area 6 streams saw significant pre-spawn pink mortality in 2025. Something we only know about because of the presence of the charter patrolman.
Area 23 – Somass (Barkley Sound) Sockeye and Chinook
Pacific Fishery Management Area 23
The Barkley Sound sockeye fishery is well underway. Catches are good and prices are excellent. It has been a great start to the B.C. salmon fishery.
There are some concerns with one of the component sockeye populations (Sproat Lake), but cool weather, an excellent industry, a First Nations-supported monitoring program, and a multi-stakeholder management body should allow the fishery to proceed and ensure escapement objectives are attained for all three systems.
However, fishing is likely to be curtailed, even in the face of this year’s strong return, to ensure Sproat and Henderson Lake achieve their minimum target escapements.
I anticipate later this season we will see good commercial and recreational catches of hatchery chinooks in Barkley Sound and some of the other smaller hatchery systems north of Barkley Sound.
Wild chinook salmon populations on the southern West Coast of Vancouver Island remain poor and will be the focus of a rebuilding plan being developed. Herein lies the challenge of managing mixed-stock fisheries. As I mentioned, there will be lots of Canadian and US hatchery chinook present along the West Coast of Vancouver Island, but they co-migrate with depressed populations of wild chinook. Recreational fisheries will therefore be constrained accordingly.
I anticipate we may see some chum fishing opportunities associated with chum hatcheries on the West Coast of the island. And recreational fishing for coho should be excellent.
East Coast of Vancouver Island and Mainland Inlets
If you are bored during a family barbecue this summer that has a couple of recreational fishermen in attendance, mention that you read that this Greg Taylor guy said a lot of B.C. chinook populations are not doing well. They will jump down your throat, exclaiming that I am an idiot, and that there are more chinook and coho in the Salish Sea today than they have ever seen. You can step away for a beer as the rant will still be going on when you return.
The thing is, they are not wrong. But it is one of those times when two things can be true at the same time. There are enormous numbers of hatchery chinook and some healthy populations of wild chinook in the Salish Sea. And both wild and hatchery coho are abundant. Yet, at the same time there are numerous populations of wild chinook that are in the ‘red zone’ which means fishing mortality must be strictly curtailed. Furthermore, since the downturn in these populations began several years ago, First Nations have limited their chinook-targeted food fisheries for conservation reasons.
But they are now arguing DFO management is effectively giving the recreational fishery priority access, which is contrary to the Constitution. First Nations are therefore talking about harvesting some of these chinook this year.
If they do, it could increase harvest rates over the rates DFO says are required to protect these populations. Something will have to give if these populations are to be preserved for future generations of both people and Southern Resident Killer Whales.
This takes me into a discussion I have been having with some folks. When we discuss salmon conservation and harvests, we talk about how many fish we can allow harvesters to catch and still preserve the aggregate number of fish required by an SMU. What is an SMU? It stands for Stock Management Unit. An SMU is comprised of several CUs, or conservation units. A CU is a distinct group of salmon that is managed separately because it is genetically, geographically, or biologically unique. The chinook belonging to individual CUs within an SMU can be returning to different small watersheds across a wide swath of B.C.’s geography. Hence, a harvest rate applied to an SMU may well not be sufficient to protect the various CUs within an SMU.
If you live in an area with one of these component CUs that is not being protected, you certainly should think twice about catching any fish when they return to the stream near your home. But what about your right as a Canadian to ‘food security?’ Why is the allowable catch divided between the small number of people who have recreational, commercial or First Nations’ access, and conservation? Why are Canadians being denied access to food near their often-rural homes and communities in favour of large and often powerful interest groups?
As I said earlier, similar access is protected by Alaska. But not in Canada. I began thinking of this issue as the price of healthy food choices began to escalate, especially for those living in rural areas. It seems to me that we should at least have a discussion as to the general public’s right of access. Maybe escapement targets for CUs should also incorporate some access for people who live in and around these CUs. These are philosophical meanderings, but I figure, as I age, I should be allowed a few of these.
But back to the East Coast of Vancouver Island and the Mainland Inlets. It is, of course, an off-year for Fraser pinks, but I expect most local rivers on the island and in the mainland inlets will see a good return of pink salmon.
I am very hopeful there will be a good return of pinks to the Quinsam River, a tributary of the Campbell River. Local First Nations, in partnership with Walcan Seafoods, secured a Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) certification of the fishery. The certification will give them preferential access to international markets. This is because they are the only MSC-certified fishery in B.C., since the rest of the B.C. industry gave up the MSC certification of B.C. salmon several years ago because DFO management could not live up to MSC standards. The key to this fishery receiving MSC certification is that it is a ‘known-stock’ or ‘terminal’ fishery and the First Nations have MSC-compliant monitoring in place.
I would also anticipate that we will continue to see the benefits of the removal of fish farms from the Broughton and Discovery Islands, particularly for mainland inlet populations, but also for the majority of South Coast populations that migrate through northern Johnstone Straits on the way to their first year in the ocean.
I am not sure what to say about South Coast hatchery chums. There is something happening in their outmigration from hatcheries in the spring. Their survival has been diminishing over the last few years, leading to no, or small, commercial fisheries. In that their fry are entering a very productive Salish Sea, my guess is there is a predation issue. But it is only a guess. Whatever the case, I anticipate 2026 returns will struggle to achieve escapement objectives.
Fraser River Salmon
As you are probably aware, 2026 is the dominant year in Fraser sockeye’s four year cycle. I am bullish on Fraser sockeye. The Salish Sea appears to be very productive, therefore outmigrating Fraser smolts two years ago should have survived well. Their passage out to sea as young salmon took them through significantly fewer fish farms, and the marine environment looks favourable, especially because they shouldn’t have had to compete with massive numbers of Alaskan hatchery-produced pink salmon.
The thing to watch is that the dominant Fraser cycle has been historically supported by very large returns of late-run sockeye, including those returning to the famous Adams River. However, these systems have suffered several years of poor escapements due to in-river mortality. Further, freshwater environmental conditions may have created additional challenges for the juvenile late-run sockeye rearing in these systems.
Therefore, unusually, it is the summer run returns to Quesnel, Chilko, and Fraser/Francois Lakes that are expected to be most productive and generate the most fishing opportunities this year. But, of course, the Fraser Panel will have to consider the impacts of fisheries targeting these populations on overlapping returns of Early Summer and late-timing sockeye. And within each of all these run-timing groups there are stocks that are expected to be abundant and those that are expected to return below their escapement objectives.
Because the Fraser Panel is charged with achieving the escapement targets for the run-timing groups (equivalent to SMUs discussed earlier), it is less concerned with protecting weak component populations.
On top of all this uncertainty will be concerns over in-river mortality due to the low snowpack in some areas and impacts of El Niño on stream temperatures and flows.
The Fraser Panel will face considerable challenges this year when deciding on US and Canadian mixed-stock coastal fisheries. But, even with all this, I would not be surprised to see a potential catch of 3 to 4.5 million Fraser sockeye.
Although small compared to dominant years in the past, it would be a very good catch relative to recent years. I say ‘potential’ because the fishing and processing sectors are a shadow of what they once were. Access to ice, unloading, and processing will challenge the industry, never mind the small number of boats they must rely on to catch and deliver the harvest.
I would expect the US to be aggressive again. As we all learned last year, while Canada has some concerns, and takes some actions in regard to the bycatch of Fraser-bound coho, steelhead, and chinook; the US does not.
Fraser chum salmon are not forecast to provide a significant surplus. Furthermore, any potential commercial fishing opportunities will be constrained by the need to protect critically endangered Thompson and Chilcotin steelhead, which hit new lows last year.
Fraser coho are a success story. After years of being classified as endangered and managed accordingly, recovery efforts and improved environmental conditions have led to significant recovery, initiating discussions on how to carefully increase fishing access. This should help increase the fleet’s access to Fraser sockeye.
Fraser chinook, as discussed previously, range from endangered to very abundant. Most ‘stream-type’ chinook — those that spend their first year or years in freshwater are doing very poorly. ‘Ocean-type’ — those that go to sea soon after hatching out of the gravel — are abundant.
Unfortunately, they all tend to rear and return through the Salish Sea making them equally vulnerable to recreational fishers. Protecting the former, while allowing harvest opportunities for the latter, in a fishery where there is almost non-existent independent monitoring, means we don’t really have any idea how effective DFO’s management strategy is, other than there has been no recovery for most stream-type chinook. It appears that 2026 will continue this depressing trend as early test fishing indicates very poor returns of stream-type Fraser chinook.
Final Thoughts
My final note is to encourage everyone to support the B.C. salmon fishery and fishermen by having a few salmon barbecues this year.
But please, only buy your Ocean Wise-recommended Canadian salmon from trusted sustainable sources. It is not only illegal, but unethical, to buy ‘black market’ salmon.
And always ask the person behind the fish counter at your major grocery outlet where their ‘fresh’ salmon is from. They often display ‘fresh’ sockeye that are actually previously frozen Alaskan sockeye.
And while sockeye is the star of the fish counter, look hard at coho, pinks, and chums. I often prefer them as the quality can be just as good, fresh fish is often available before, during and after the sockeye season, and they are less expensive.
Although, I will admit, because of poor monitoring of bycatch, discards, compliance, and escapements in many of B.C.’s seine fisheries producing these fish; it is hard to find Ocean Wise or MSC-recommended pinks and chums, Quinsam pink salmon being the exception.
Have a good summer. I will provide a report on the season that was in the fall.
