4 CSL shilling posts last week and now its down 5% in just 3 days.......

Are these insiders hinting me not to buy or you all just regards seriously

Was digging through ASX gold miners on moomoo today and it's actually a pretty broad green day across the board, not a stock-picking story like I first thought.

Every name on the list is up: RRL leads at +4.92%, EVN right behind at +4.91%, then GMD +4.60%, CMM +4.48%, VAU +3.94%, WGX +3.50%, NST +3.10%, NEM +3.04%, PRU +2.71%, EMR +2.39%, and RMS +2.32%. Nothing red in the sector today.

What caught my eye on EVN specifically: it's not just the price move, the net inflow data shows actual buying pressure behind it (net inflow ~2.24M, with the bulk of volume sitting in the top buy bucket at 41.5%). That's a different signal than just riding gold beta up with everyone else.

So the real question is more this: EVN and RRL are basically tied for the day's leaders. If you had to pick one of the two, which are you leaning toward and why?

Blood on the floor for CCA, (Change somethingsomethibgelse) down 20ish% over 3 days.

But Monday's notice basically said "we are going to come right in the middle of our upgraded forecast range for the quarter"

oh and "we will move to recording in $AUD as our US operation now fully shut&gone"

No dire law changes? Impending legislative doom?

Asking coz I purchased 9 months ago so may shovel in more. But maybe i missed shit.

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Based on everything progressing on track with demand increasing and further funding on track to be unlocked in Q4 not sure why this stock has been beaten down to around 50 cents… other than shorts

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Good fundamentals.

• P/E of 9.66
• 100% Franked Dividends (Attractive for this Post CGT discount world)
• Positive Cashflow

Uniquely positioned for economic disruption.

• Payday loans
• Households will be looking to cut expenditure, Secondhand goods are an attractive option. Especially given the large increase in the cost of new electronics.
• Operates 667 stores in 15 countries.

Please tell me why I'm dumb.

Thank you for listening to my ted talk.

Your markets are run by bots. Now your r/Asx_bets daily threads are too.

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Position: Long CXU.ASX
Market cap - $250m.

Company overview: CXU has pounds in the ground of uranium in Australia. Currently they are prohibited from mining because of a statewide ban which can be overturned by the State Government at the flick of a pen (more on that later).

The thesis

Forget whether uranium goes to US$80 or US$120.

This trade comes down to one question:

What happens when an ETF potentially has to buy 200+ million shares of a small cap company where almost nobody wants to sell and the Top 20 hold about 70%.

Here’s what I’ve found…

The Global X URA ETF is expected to rebalance at the end of July.

If CXU is included (and it’s on the shortlist to be), passive funds tracking the index will need to establish a position.

Passive funds don’t negotiate. They don’t decide a stock is “too expensive.”

Their mandate is to track the index as closely as possible.

If CXU is in…they buy.

I modelled the numbers.

Using Solactive’s weighting methodology together with URA’s current AUM, I estimated several scenarios.

Conservative:
~130 million shares

Base case:
~240 million shares.

Bull case:
~270 million shares.

Read that again.

Potential demand for 130-270 million shares.

For perspective…

When CXU was added to BetaShares URNM ETF in June buying roughly 16 million shares resulted in approximately a 16% move.

Sprott URNJ buying roughly 26 million shares coincided with around a 38% move.

URA could require ten times that amount.

Nobody knows exactly what the price response would be—but the scale of potential buying is dramatically larger.

The liquidity issue

This is where things get interesting.

CXU simply doesn’t trade hundreds of millions of shares every week. They average about 4 milllion.

Even if ETF execution is spread across several sessions, it still represents demand that is vastly larger than normal trading activity.

Markets only have one mechanism for solving that problem - HIGHER prices.

And remember - about 70% of the free float is held by Top20.

The timeline

This isn’t some vague “maybe one day” catalyst. This is a 2 week timeframe.

The window is relatively well defined.

Mid July:
Solactive publishes its market watch list. This is now published here: https://www.solactive.com/announcements/67151

Around 27-28 July:
Official constituent announcement.

31 July:
ETF implementation.

The precedent

We’ve already seen smaller ETF inclusions move illiquid uranium stocks.

The difference here is scale.

URA is substantially larger than the previous ETFs that bought CXU.

That doesn’t guarantee a larger price move—but it does mean the buying power involved is potentially much greater.

The opportunity?
You have an opportunity to front run most of the move may occur before the ETF actually buys hundreds of millions of shares on or around 31 July

Risks
Let’s be clear.

This is a speculative event-driven trade.

Things that could invalidate the thesis:

CXU isn’t selected.
Liquidity requirements aren’t met.
Uranium sentiment deteriorates.
The market has already priced in the event.

The macro tailwind just got even bigger

As if the ETF setup wasn’t enough, the macro backdrop for uranium has become even more supportive.

Last week, Australia and India finalized the long-awaited administrative arrangements that operationalize their civil nuclear cooperation agreement, clearing the way for long-term Australian uranium exports for India’s civilian nuclear program under IAEA safeguards.

And guess what - this means Australia needs to supply more uranium to India. To do that they need more mines. The easiest way to do that is unban uranium mining in the state of Western Australia, where CXU holds its mine.

TL;DR

☢️ Possible URA inclusion in July.

📊 Passive funds may need to buy roughly 130-270 million shares depending on final weighting.

📉 Liquidity is limited.

📈 If inclusion occurs, supply—not valuation—may become the dominant driver of price in the short term.

Not financial advice. Always DYOR.

Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.

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HWK

Your markets are run by bots. Now your r/Asx_bets daily threads are too.

Read the wiki people.

Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

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I’m down like 60% and it’s shown no signs of life since the massive drop, this a take your lose and run moment or will earning in August be the moment to decide ?

Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.

This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.

Maybe use this time to read the wiki .

Posts relating to the "Is r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

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HWK

Position: I own this dog and have for years. Keep averaging down as they disappoint the fuck out of me.

Brothers and sisters. While you apes were chasing real gains on the NASDAQ, the alpha was sitting around at home this whole time selling BLOOD stuff. Not crypto. Not AI. Not trillion dollar vibes. Actual human plasma or something. You cannot short biology.

Stock's been "sideways" (down) since 2020, afterwhich is just the chart winding up like a coiled spring, this is basicly just a 6-year cup and handle, my technical analysis degree from the illustrious school of YouTube confirms this. We're around 2016 prices now, imagine you could get your Hungry Jack's for 2016 prices today, you'd ultimate-double-whopper your way to congestive heart failure.

"Analysts" (Morningstar nerds) say fair value is ~$173 and it's trading at like $123 today, that's FREE MONEY sitting on the footpath and you're stepping over it to buy NVDA, fucking NASDAQ ETFs, or some bullshit Elon K-hole imaginary company like SPCX, again.

They just dropped $1.5B on US expansion, 300 new jobs, this is basically Elon-tier capex energy but for haemophilia medicine, bullish.

"Never sell CSL" — ancient ASX prophecy, older than your portfolio, wiser than your therapist, tried and tested like your uncle's handsyness at Chrissy dinner.

Earnings Aug 18: if management says literally one (1) positive word the algos will pump this boomer shit into a new medical stratosphere, like your blood pressure peaking while you watch the ASX limp along, poking it with a little stick, and asking yourself questions like "why doesn't the ASX do anything like all the other exciting stock exchanges?".

THE BEAR CASE (does not apply to me personally):

something something guidance cut, number went down for a bit, who cares, plasma is forever, bodies keep bleeding, the macro is humans existing.

CSL is a civilisational moat made of red liquid. See you at $175 where I will officially be only -2% on my AVG buy.

This is not financial advice. I am bleeding over CSL for the past 5 yrs, fortunately they have the plasma I will inevitably need.

CSL is one of the few genuine oligopoly businesses on the ASX, and I think the market has badly mispriced it. Roughly 70% of profit comes from CSL Behring, its plasma therapies division (immunoglobulins, albumin, clotting factors), where CSL out-executes rivals like Grifols and Takeda through superior collection technology and the largest single-site fractionation capacity in the industry (10m+ litres a year). That business throws off 40–50% margins and rides genuine, non-discretionary demand — chronic and rare-disease treatment growth of roughly 3–5% a year, not a speculative bubble. Layer on CSL Seqirus (vaccines, ~14% of revenue) with the strongest government relationships in the pandemic-preparedness space, and CSL Vifor (iron/nephrology, ~14%) now in a complementary JV with Fresenius, and you get a business with real behavioural and regulatory moats: doctors and health systems are deeply habituated to these products, and CSL has a 100% historical success rate navigating regulatory tightening. The stock is currently trading on a forward P/E of around 11 after the market punished it hard for the Vifor impairment and a rough FY — a reaction that looks more like an overcorrection (loss aversion, social proof, analyst herding) than a re-rating justified by the underlying economics.

The bear case is real but, in my view, cyclical rather than structural. ROIC has slipped from its historical 20%+ down to roughly 13–14%, and the key swing factor going forward is plasma collection cost, which is exposed to donor/labour cost pressure (modelled at a modest ~14% probability of a meaningfully bad combination) and industry-wide supply-demand dynamics. Management has also just been almost entirely replaced — new CEO, CFO, CCO and a reshuffled board with more pharma expertise — specifically to fix execution rather than a broken business model, and there's a A$750m buyback running through to mid-2026 signalling confidence. Weighing a roughly 69% probability of full recovery (7–10% returns) against a 31% chance of a slower grind (5–6% returns), even the downside case is bond-like rather than capital-destructive, which is a favourable asymmetry. Technically, CSL looks to be stabilising near strong support around A$105–115 with resistance at ~A$117 short-term and A$124–165 medium-term, which is why I'm treating this as a staged accumulation rather than an all-in bet: roughly 40% around current levels (~A$110–115), 35% if it dips toward A$100–105, and the last 25% on confirmation of a trend reversal above ~A$125. Not financial advice — just my own notes and DYOR before following any of it.

Every time some "rotation into banks" 🤓🏦 merchant declares biotech dead, CSL quietly harvests another few million litres of plasma 🩸, raises guidance 📊, and reminds the market why quality compounds. Meanwhile the dividend chasers celebrate their 4% yield while inflation eats half of it 🍞🐀.

🧬💰 "CSL is too expensive!" they've been saying since 2005. Yet every correction brings out institutions with trillion-dollar wallets 💼🐋 vacuuming up shares while retail panic sells at the bottom 📉🤡. Respect the plasma vampire 🧛🩸. It doesn't care about your feelings, your TA lines 📐, or your doomposts. It just keeps collecting blood... and your money.

tldr; plasma 🩸 plasma, humans have blood 🩸 plasma, humans have blood 🩸 plasma not going away🩸 if there are humans 🩸 plasma 🩸

tldr, tldr; please be my exit liquidity for this dog!

just give me the ticker: HWK

Analyzing $RMD, high P/B but a relatively low P/E compared with historical records.... The market seems to have highly valued RMD’s intangibles — brand, IP, distribution, and trust. The question I have is: can the returns still justify a high P/B? What do u think?

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